Russia's war on Ukraine. 14.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, occupiers conducted 8 attacks near Vovchansk and Vysoka Yaruha.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 attacks. The enemy showed activity in the areas of Lozova, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, and Pershotravneve. Aviation strikes targeted Pishchane, Kivsharivka, Zahryzove, and Bohuslavka. The enemy attacked 8 times on the Lyman direction, attempting to advance towards Cherneshchyna, Zarichne, Novoyehorivka, and Terny. Enemy airstrikes hit Serhiivka, Novoyehorivka, Yampolivka, and Terny. On the Kramatorsk direction, a single clash occurred near Stupochky. Siversk and Zvanivka suffered airstrikes. The enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 7 times on the Toretsk direction, attacking near Nelipivka and Toretsk. Enemy airstrikes targeted the areas of Dachne, Toretsk, Mykolaivka, Petrivka, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 36 enemy assault and offensive actions near the areas of Sukha Balka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Hryhorivka, Dachenske, Myrolyubivka, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, and Pustynka. Ukrainian Defense Forces are take measures to hold the designated lines and give a strong response. The enemy's Aerospace Forces attacked Pushkyne, Myrnohrad, Shevchenko, Petrivka, and Sukha Balka. On the Kurakhove direction, there were 40 combat encounters. The occupiers maintain activity, attempting to advance near Berestky, Illinka, Novoselydivka, Sontsivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, and Katerynivka.  On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers attacked 10 times near Rivnopil, Novopil, Trudove, Konstyantynopil, and Makarivka. On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 3 enemy attacks in the directions of Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka. The areas of Natalivka and Zaporizhzhia were attacked by enemy aviation.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, there have been no significant changes; no positions or territory were lost. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled five assaults by Russian invaders. The enemy carried out an airstrike on Kozatske.

General conclusion:

• On the Kupyansk direction, during their attacks, Russian infantry resorted to deception by wearing Ukrainian uniforms, which is a war crime under international law. The enemy increasingly attacks in a combined battle formation rather than on foot.

• In the operational zone of the 8th Combined Arms Army (the enemy's “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) and the right flank of the enemy's “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, units of the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division of the 68th Army Corps, and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet), the situation on the southern part of the Kurakhove bridgehead is gradually becoming extremely negative for the “Tavriya” OSG of Ukrainian Defense Forces.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are advancing south of Velyka Novosilka, attempting to breach the Ukrainian defense.

• The defensive line of the “Tavriya” OSG of Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Sukhi Yaly River, intended to help stabilize the southern part of the Kurakhove bridgehead, is on the verge of being breached by the enemy between Konstyantynopil and Uspenivka. Defense Forces units are still fighting for Trudove, but on adjacent sections, they are already retreating to the river. The situation for the “Tavriya” OSG in the Hannivka-Antonivka-Katerynivka-Veselyi Hai area is rapidly deteriorating due to the enemy's breakthrough toward Dalnie.

• In Kurakhove, the enemy is using infiltration tactics within the town, as they did in Selydove, advancing with small infantry groups and has already moved along Zaporizhzhia Avenue toward Middle School No. 3. A higher level of tactical reconnaissance and improved monitoring of the entire tactical area by the enemy has been observed.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 151 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the area of Zelionyi Put, Kurilovka, Plekhovo, and attacked in the areas of Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Malaya Loknia.

• The “Siversk” OTG attacked near Alexandria, Nizhniy Klin, Novaya Sorochina, and Novoivanovka.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed the fuel and lubricant warehouse "Oskolneftesnab" near Staryi Oskol in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with an airstrike.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces tried to advance towards Moskovka, Borova, to the north, west, and east of Kruhlyakivka, north of Vyshneve, near Pershotravneve, and advanced in the area of Lozova, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, Cherneshchyna.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Hlushkivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance towards Torske, attacking near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Terny, Zarichne.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Torske.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Verkhnokamianske but failed to advance.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and near the mine east of Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced to Engels Street in the center of Toretsk and control about a quarter of the city; they continued attacks near Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attempt to advance along the railway line between Petrivka and Pustynka, southwest of Novooleksiivka, and continue advancing in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Hryhorivka, Pustynka, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, and Yuryivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army captured Illinka. Russian forces struck the bridge over the Dovha Ravine in Kurakhove, are engaging in battles and advancing on the eastern outskirts of Kurakhove, controlling 15% of the city, and are fighting to capture Novoselydivka. They continued attacks near Illinets, Berestky, Novoselivka, Voznesenka, and Novodmytrivka.

• The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army, the 1st, 5th, 110th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army are advancing in the tactical zone, actively attacking along the directions of Novooleksiivka–Ukrainka, Novodmytrivka–Sontsivka, moving along the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. The right flank of the 90th Tank Division on the direction of Selydove–Hryhorivka is secured from the north by the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army, which allows for intensifying efforts in the Hryhorivka–Selydove–Tsukuryne–Novodmytrivka strip along the general Selydove–Andriivka direction.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces hold Berestky and are engaged in fierce rear-guard actions near Voznesenka and Novoselydivka, though enemy forward units have already broken through to the west of this line towards Novodmytrivka–Sontsivka.

• The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army, having broken through to Dalnie, is attempting to advance further towards Konstyantynopil and Uspenivka from the northeast. “Tavriya” OSG units have yet to stop the enemy. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army is actively advancing west of Trudove along the Shakhtarske–Uspenivka road, reaching a line 2.5 km from its southwestern outskirts. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the main forces of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade continue persistently attacking towards Rozlyv and Maksymivka–Sukhi Yaly, aiming to expand the threat of encirclement across the entire Kurakhove bridgehead.

• “Tavriya” OSG units defending in front of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade near Antonivka, Katerynivka, and Yelyzavetivka are at risk of encirclement if the enemy continues advancing on Uspenivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced east and northeast of Bohoyavlenka, southwest of Shakhtarske, northwest of Yasna Polyana, northwest of Maksymivka, southwest of Novodaryivka, captured most of Dalnie, and are fighting for Rivnopil. Heavy fighting continues near Dalnie, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Maksymilianivka, Yelyzavetivka, Konstyantynopil, Trudove, Rivnopil, Novopil, and Makarivka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked northeast of Huliaypole and north of Robotyne and assaulted near Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault north of Stepove.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

• A Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group (DRG) eliminated the commander of the 41st Brigade of Missile Ships and Boats of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy in occupied Sevastopol.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 'Nevsky Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade' are active Near Soledar.

• The 'Irbis' detachment from the 'Redut' Private Military Company is engaged in combat in the vicinity of Orikhovo-Vasylivka.

• The 'Altai' Tank Battalion of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, of the 5th Army conducts combat operations near Pryiutne.

• In reserve for the enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, which is operating on the Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk directions, there are five motorized rifle regiments, the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, and six reserve rifle and motorized rifle battalions. This reserve force totals up to 15,000 military personnel, 110 tanks, 250 armored combat vehicles, 90 guns and mortars, and 14 multiple-launch rocket systems. Approximately 30% of this reserve is maintained in the operational rear and in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. Part of the reserve was deployed to the Kurakhove direction, including the 90th Tank Division's tank regiment and the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment.

• The 51st Combined Arms Army received four to five battalions of marching reinforcements.

• The 8th Combined Arms Army maintains in reserve an infantry regiment and four battalions, one of which is a tank battalion, all concentrated in the tactical rear of the army. This reserve force consists of 2,300 military personnel, 32 tanks, fewer than 20 armored combat vehicles, and up to 40 guns and mortars.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• Given the likelihood of Russian forces being redeployed from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to the Kursk or Pokrovsk directions, the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the enemy remain unclear.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line to avoid encirclement. A retreat from Kurakhove, which has already served its strategic purpose in this stage of the war, is to be expected. By December, the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position. By November 20, “Tavriya” OSG will pull back from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

• Enemy’s “Yug (South)” and “Vostok (East)” Operational Groupings on the Kurakhove direction will soon require a regrouping of forces between operational zones. To encircle the “Tavriya” OSG in the Kurakhove area, the enemy grouping needs to transfer reserves from other operational directions.

• After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.11.24  

Personnel - almost 716,070 (+1,690); 

Tanks 9,319 (+19);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,947 (+51); 

Artillery systems – 20,472 (+64);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,252 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 997 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,090 (+124);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,852 (+54);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,640 (+4)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of November 14, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 59 "Shahed" attack drones and drones of an unidentified type. Ukrainian defense forces successfully destroyed 21 drones, while 38 drones lost radar tracking. Drones were shot down over the Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kyiv Oblasts.

• During the night, the enemy struck a site in Poltava Oblast with a combat drone, hitting an industrial facility and causing a fire. Fortunately, there were no injuries.

• On November 14, Russian forces launched a daytime drone attack on Kindiyka, a suburb of Kherson, injuring a 46-year-old man. Later, they attacked the village of Veletenske in Kherson Oblast, where a 59-year-old man sustained blast injuries and abdominal wounds.

• In the Kupiansk community of Kharkiv Oblast, about 4,000 residents remain, with 1,000 living on the left bank of the Oskil River, the area most vulnerable to attacks. Currently, no enemy forces are reported within the community’s territory.

• In evacuation areas of Donetsk Oblast, 112 families remain, raising a total of 153 children, who are being evacuated with parents or legal guardians.

• So far, 308 individuals affected by conflict-related sexual violence in Ukraine have received immediate, interim reparations as part of a pilot project.