Russia's war on Ukraine. 14.10.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, fighting took place near Starytsya.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 19 clashes near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Kopanky, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 19 times near Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Terny, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, there were 3 clashes in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers attacked 4 times near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy assaults in the areas of Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Promin, and Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 enemy attacks near Zhelanne Druhe, Kreminna Balka, Izmailivka, Novoselydivka, Kurakhivka, Hirnyk, Maksymilianivka, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy attacked twice near Zolota Nyva. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers unsuccessfully attempted to push Ukrainian Defense Forces' units near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka 3 times.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy suffered defeat, attacking the Ukrainian defense lines eight times.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formation have been detected.

On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, conducting mortar and artillery shelling of towns and villages from the territory of the Russian Federation.

General conclusion:

• Russian offensive activity is aimed at improving the tactical positions of Russian troops in the areas of Levadne and Novodaryivka and creating tactical footholds for the continuation of offensive actions. Another goal is to block the maneuver of Ukrainian Defense Forces to other directions.

• During assaults in Toretsk Russian servicemen disguise themselves in civilian clothing, which is a war crime.

• On October 10, Russian troops executed nine Ukrainian prisoners of war near the village of Zelenyi Put, Kursk Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 161 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces recaptured Matveevka and advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, reaching the outskirts of Olgovka, recapturing Liubimovka, Tolstyi Luh, and most of Novoivanovka, pushing "Siversk" OTG units away from Cherkasskya Konopelka, and continued advancing on Malaya Loknia and Mikhailovka. They repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Novoivanovka, Plekhovo, near Zelenyi Put, Nizhniy Klin, Pokrovskoe, Novyi Put, and attacked from Vesioloe towards the northern outskirts of Novyi Put and near Medvezhye.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced closer to the Oskil River near Kruhlyakivka, continuing offensive actions around Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Lozova, and Myasozharivka.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novomykhailivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, and Terny. In the Rovenky area, an enemy fuel depot was hit by a UAV strike.

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces conducted offensive operations around Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces launched offensives near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and attacked in the Shcherbynivka area.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian forces regained lost positions north of Selydove.

• Russian forces captured Mykhailivka. The 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army Corps captured Tsukuryne. The enemy continued offensive operations around Promin, Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Tsukuryne, Novodmytrivka, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Selydove, Krutyi Yar, Kreminna Balka, Kurakhivka, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Zhelanne Druhe, Zoryane, and Izmailivka, striking the Korotchenko mine on the eastern outskirts of Selydove with an X-38ML "air-to-surface" missile.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces conducted offensive actions near Kurakhove, Maksymilianivka, Heorhiivka, and Dalnie.

• On the Vremivka direction, the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet and the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army resumed attacks near Levadne. The enemy is attempting to advance towards Novodaryivka, trying to break through and cut the Huliaypole–Velyka Novosilka road. Russian forces conduct offensive actions around Kamianske. They advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Katerynivka, north of Kostyantynivka, north of Vodyane, and further into central Katerynivka, attacked in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva.

• Russian forces became more active on the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River, which flows west along the T0518 highway and on the western outskirts of Velyka Novosilka. They now attempt to advance in areas west of the Ukrainian salient. To break through to the T0518 highway, the enemy will need to capture Velyka Novosilka, which will require intensifying offensive actions on the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River, directly south of Velyka Novosilka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Robotyne.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 12 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operates in Liubimovka, Kursk Oblast.

• The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near Lyptsi.

• The 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army is active on the Kupyansk direction.

• The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is advancing on the Lyman direction.

• The 2nd Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Verkhnyokamianske.

• The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps is active near Klishchiivka.

• The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and a battalion of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army are engaged in combat in Toretsk.

• The 32nd BARS detachment operates in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.10.24  

Personnel - almost 670,190 (+1,260); 

Tanks 8,975 (+4);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,895 (+19); 

Artillery systems – 19,421 (+11);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,231 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,622 (+38);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 17,009 (+17);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,619 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• For the first time in almost 50 days, on the night of October 14, Russian occupiers did not attack Ukraine with "Shahed"-type drones.

• Over the past day, the occupiers carried out 177 strikes on 9 villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and attacked them with 84 drones of various modifications.

• At noon, Russians attacked a civilian car with a drone near Havrylivka in Kherson Oblast. Two women, aged 72 and 56, sustained fatal injuries.

• On the afternoon of October 14, Russian forces attacked the port infrastructure of Odesa with a ballistic missile. One person died, and eight others were injured, all of them port employees. Civilian ships were damaged: "NS Moon" under the Belize flag and the bulk carrier "OPTIMA" under the Palau flag. The port infrastructure, including a grain warehouse, was also damaged in the attack.

• Since the beginning of 2024, 217 children have been returned to Ukraine-controlled territory from the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast.

• The environmental damage caused to Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts due to the pollution of the Seym and Desna rivers exceeds 530 million UAH (over USD12.6 million). The catastrophe was triggered by industrial discharges from a factory located in Russia.

• Ukrainians with diabetes, bronchial asthma, and other diseases in the temporarily occupied territories will no longer be able to receive free medications without Russian passports starting next year.

• Anonymous letters about bomb threats are being sent to the email addresses of government bodies, local authorities, and other institutions in various Oblasts of Ukraine. Among the recipients are also embassies of other countries. The police conduct checks. "It is not ruled out that the enemy is attempting to destabilize the situation in our country's regions through such information and psychological operations," the police stated.

• According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the level of trust in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has remained stable since May 2024. 59% of Ukrainians support the president, while 37% express distrust. The survey was conducted from September 20 to October 3, 2024.