Russia's war on Ukraine. 14.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, battles continued near Pogrebki, Kruglenkoe, Russkoe Porechie, and Makhnovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the wooded area on the northeastern outskirts of Tykhe, unsuccessfully attacked in Vovchansk, and advanced in the Kozacha Lopan area.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Makiivka, attacked near Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Pishchane, Pershotravneve, Kopanky, toward Shyivka, near Makiivka, Novoserhiyivka, and Tverdokhlibove, cleared areas near Zahryzove and Zelenyi Hai, and established a crossing over the Oskil River between Kruhlyakivka and Senkove.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward Kolodyazi, establish a bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River, and attacked near Terny and Zarichne.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful local attacks near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Stupochky, and attempted to advance in the "Pivnichnyi" neighborhood. They are engaged in battles for the refractory materials plant.
On the Toretsk direction, the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps captured half of the “Pivnichnyi” neighborhood and the fourth shop of the refractory materials plant, while the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division fought to take control of the plant’s main building. The 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps were clearing the Stupky-Holubovski wooded area. The enemy attacked in Chasiv Yar, near Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces captured most of Toretsk (81%) and pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces units to the northern outskirts. The enemy attacked near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Myrne, capturing positions along the T0504 highway, while units of the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army reached and cut off the T0406 Kotlyne-Udachne highway. Occupying forces captured the remainder of Solone and Pishchane. The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked in the first echelon, while the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade consolidated on the newly reached front line. The enemy attacked near Baranivka, Zelene Pole, Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Novotoretske, Novooleksandrivka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Zelene, Shevchenkove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Novoandriivka, Sribne, Yasenove, and Kotlyne.
Russian military command redeployed part of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army from the Kurakhove direction to advance near Vozdvyzhenka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Dachne and northeast of Yantarne, attacking near Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, and Shevchenkove.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River, southwest of Novyi Komar, captured Neskuchne, reached a line 1 km from the last logistical route of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Velyka Novosilka, and attacked near Vremivka, Rivnopil, and Neskuchne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in the northern part of Neskuchne.
General conclusion:
In recent days, Russian forces have almost halved the pace of combat operations on the Kharkiv direction.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempt to use adverse weather conditions to cross the Oskil River on small boats and rafts, accumulating forces toward Dvorichna and Masyutivka. Currently, they do not use vehicles during assaults due to wet ground but deploy up to 30–40 FPV drones to strike individual targets in the area.
On the Lyman direction, the artillery ratio is 1:1.
Russian forces have cut the T0504 Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T0406 Pokrovsk–Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk, attempting to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
The command of the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping may use the advance east of Pokrovsk in the area of Vozdvyzhenka and Myrne to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk along the H20 Donetsk–Kostyantynivka highway. It also intends to cut the “Khortytsia” OSG’s logistics in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, forcing Ukrainian units to withdraw from these cities. The enemy's advance east and west of Pokrovsk could complicate the logistics and resupply of the Defense Forces and their ability to reinforce and redeploy troops to defend Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The enemy command hopes to avoid urban fighting in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, viewing the blockade of logistics as a preferable solution to displace the Defense Forces from these cities.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 166 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched two assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Lozova, Zapadne, and Dvorichna, where three Russian attacks occurred.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy carried out 16 attacks, attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Novoserhiyivka, Zelenyi Hai, Shyikivka, Pershotravneve, Makiivka, Zarichne, and Terny.
Five enemy assaults were repelled near Bilohorivka on the Siversk direction.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 14 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 16 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, Shcherbynivka, and Bila Hora, with the majority of attacks focused on Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 77 aggressor attacks were stopped toward Baranivka, Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Nova Poltava, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Promin, Pokrovsk, Shevchenko, Udachne, Novovasylivka, Uspenivka, Petropavlivka, Novoandriivka, Slovyanka, Sribne, Andriivka, Kurakhove, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, and Yantarne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks. The occupiers most actively attempted to advance near Rozlyv, Vremivka, Rozdolne, Konstyantynopil, and Neskuchne.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack.
On the Kursk direction, 15 clashes occurred, and the enemy conducted 37 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 8 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Russian troops deployed additional S-400 air defense systems and a radar at the Hvardiyske airfield in Crimea.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is advancing on the Nelipivka–Leonidivka direction.
The 346th Separate SOF Brigade, the 163rd Tank Regiment, the 102nd and 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division operate near Kurakhove.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
A breakthrough to the city from the south and the gradual expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the city due to numerical superiority in forces and means (the enemy's tactics in Chasiv Yar).
A deep encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south, cutting the road to Mezhova, regrouping part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's forces, encircling the city from the north as well, cutting the T0504 road to Kostyantynivka.
The 36th, 57th, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, advancing from the south towards Sukhyi Yaly and Yantarne, might simultaneously, together with the actions of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies, once again attempt to break through in the direction of Zelenivka – Ulakly and further towards Konstyantynopil.
On the Vremivka direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense zone in the area of Velyka Novosilka – Vremivka – Neskuchne from the west, expand its section of control over the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road between Novosilka and Vremivka, and actively broaden the penetration toward Neskuchne and Novosilka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.01.25
Personnel - almost 811,090 (+1,330);
Tanks 9,767 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,326 (+11);
Artillery systems – 21,923 (+47);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,262 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,044 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,708 (+110);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 22,276 (+72);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,018 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In Ukraine, at least 105 civilians were killed, and 514 people were injured in December 2024, according to UN data.
On the night of January 14, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 80 Shahed strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. Fifty-eight drones were shot down, while 21 were lost in location tracking. The downed drones caused damage in Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts, damaging private and multi-apartment buildings and vehicles.
On the night of January 14, Russian forces targeted the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using Grad MLRS, heavy artillery, and a drone, injuring two adults and a child. The attack damaged four private homes, two utility structures, and power lines, and caused a fire at an industrial enterprise.
On the morning of January 14, occupiers attacked the village of Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast, killing a civilian man.
In Kherson Oblast, two people were injured by drone attacks in the morning: a 58-year-old man in the village of Tekstylne and an 88-year-old woman in the city of Beryslav, who was hospitalized in critical condition.
On January 14, 2025, at around 3:10 PM, occupiers used a drone to attack a civilian vehicle parked on a street in the city of Seredyna-Buda, Shostka district, Sumy Oblast. The 56-year-old owner of the vehicle, standing nearby, was injured.
Today, around 10:00 AM, the enemy struck a nine-story building in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, using an FPV drone. A 74-year-old woman was injured in the strike.
Late in the evening of January 13, Russian aviation struck an infrastructure facility in the city of Sumy, damaging administrative and warehouse buildings. The blast wave shattered windows in a nearby two-story residential building, but no casualties were reported.
Ninety percent of Ukrainians want to see Ukraine as part of the European Union, and 84% support NATO membership. However, in the case of referendums on joining the EU and NATO, 68% of all Ukrainians are ready to go to polling stations and vote "yes," according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), referencing data from three surveys conducted in 2024.