Russia's war on Ukraine. 13.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces launched 8 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made 17 assaults on Ukrainian positions around the areas of Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attempted to advance six times in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, and Torske. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an attack near Verkhnyokamianske on the Siversk direction, the enemy attempted to push Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions near Vyimka and carried out airstrikes near Zakytne, Dronivka, and Siversk. Three enemy attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar on the Kramatorsk direction ended in failure, despite unguided rocket strikes near Novomarkove and bombing of Kramatorsk and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the aggressor launched 10 attacks, supported by aviation, near Toretsk and the area of Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the intensity of combat remains high, with a rise in combat engagements to 28. The occupiers continue their offensive toward Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Hryhorivka, Pustynka, and Novooleksiivka, with 19 attacks repelled. On the Kurakhove direction, 47 engagements of varying intensity have been recorded. Occupying forces made the most concentrated attempts to advance in the areas of Illinka, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Novodmytrivka, Dalnie, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, with air support, the aggressor attacked the front lines 13 times near Trudove, Maksymivka, Makarivka, Rivnopil, and Novodaryivka.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, 5 enemy attempts to storm Ukrainian positions were unsuccessful.

General conclusion:

• Defense of the Kurakhove bridgehead by "Tavriya" OSG is reaching its final stage. If defending units in the vicinity of Yelyzavetivka and Katerynivka do not withdraw, at least as far as Uspenivka, they risk being encircled.

• An attempt by "Tavriya" OSG to halt the enemy along the Sukhyi Yaly River line and retain control of the Kurakhove bridgehead from the south failed.

• The situation on the Kurakhove direction is rapidly deteriorating. Enemy "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping is actively advancing from the south towards Rozlyv, while the 8th Combined Arms Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping and part of the forces from "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping are pressing from the northeast toward Andriivka.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 156 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Novoivanovka, northwest of Plekhovo, southwest of Pogrebki, and near Daryino, attempting to push back units of the "Siversk" OTG from positions near Maryivka.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kremiannoe. Active fighting is ongoing near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Orlovka, and Malaya Loknia.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Vovchansk without making advances. Battles are reported near the summer houses in the Lyptsi area, with stability maintained in the Lyptsi and Hlyboke areas north of Kharkiv.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued advancing around Kindrashivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, and Novoplatonivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian troops attempted to secure positions on the outskirts of Terny, advanced towards the center of the settlement, and launched attacks near Nevske, Torske, and Serebrianka.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Vyimka but made no progress.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Stupochky, but they remain approximately 2.5 km from the village.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made advances along Dzerzhynsky and Druzhby streets in Toretsk and launched attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Petrivka, northeast of Yuryivka, south of Novooleksiivka, and launched assaults near Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Selydove, Hryhorivka, Krutyi Yar, Pustynka, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, and in the direction of Ukrainka.

• The "Tavriya" OSG counterattacked between Sukhy Yar and Krutyi Yar.

• On the Kurakhove direction, forward units of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army advanced to Dalnie, south of Kurakhove. Three Russian infantry groups unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Vovcha River north of Kurakhove. Russian forces also attacked Ukrainian defensive positions near Katerynivka and Antonivka in an effort to stabilize the front line in western Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, Russian forces launched assaults near Kurakhove, Novodmytrivka, Sontsivka, Zoria, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Kreminna Balka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Illinka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, and Trudove.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are engaged in battles for Rivnopil and Makarivka, advancing southwest of Novodaryivka and attacking near Huliaypole and Marfopil.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Novoandriivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operates in Kursk Oblast.

• In Makarivka, the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army are operating towards Vremivka.

• The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army is active on the Polohy direction.

• In Kursk Oblast, Russian forces have concentrated up to 50,000 military personnel, including around 10,000 North Korean armed forces personnel, in preparation for an operation aimed at pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces out of Russian territory by the end of January 2025.

• Russian military command in the theater of operations has redeployed units from the western area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast. This includes the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division and several battalions from the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet.

Possible operation situation developments:

• ·       The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• ·       Given the likelihood of Russian forces being redeployed from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to the Kursk or Pokrovsk directions, the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the enemy remain unclear.

• ·       If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.

• ·       The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• ·       “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line to avoid encirclement. A retreat from Kurakhove, which has already served its strategic purpose in this stage of the war, is to be expected. By December, the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position. By November 20, “Tavriya” OSG will pull back from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

• ·       After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.

• ·       By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.11.24  

Personnel - almost 714,380 (+1,770); 

Tanks 9,300 (+24);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,896 (+49); 

Artillery systems – 20,408 (+56);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,249 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,966 (+96);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,798 (+61);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,636 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of November 13, Russian forces launched a coordinated attack with 96 missiles and UAVs across Ukraine. The attack involved two S-300 surface-to-air missiles (hitting Sumy Oblast), two Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, and 90 Shahed-type and unidentified drones. By 10 a.m., Ukraine confirmed the interception of two Kh-101 missiles, two Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles, and 37 drones. Additionally, 47 drones were “lost” over various regions in Ukraine, two exited Ukrainian airspace toward Belarus and Russia, and two remained in flight.

• For the first time in 73 days, Russian forces carried out a combined missile and drone strike on Kyiv. The capital's air raid alarms began around 6:30 a.m. due to a drone threat, followed by incoming cruise missiles. Russian forces simultaneously launched ballistic missiles as the cruise missiles neared Kyiv. The attack concluded with more drones. The Russian air assault on Kyiv lasted over two hours, with no reported injuries in the city; however, a person was injured and a fire started where debris fell in a Kyiv Oblast village.

• At around 1:00 a.m., Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia, damaging infrastructure without causing injuries.

• On the evening of November 12 and the morning of November 13, Russia struck Nikopol District in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast three times—first targeting Marhanets with a kamikaze drone, then using Grad MLRS and artillery on Nikopol, damaging several businesses.

• Early on November 13, a Russian drone attack in Kherson Oblast killed one person in Beryslav and injured two in Antonivka.

• In Stanislav, Kherson Oblast, Russian forces struck an ambulance evacuating two people injured in a drone attack, destroying the vehicle but sparing the medical team.

• Around 11:30 a.m., a Russian drone struck a parking lot near a shopping center in Saltivskyi district, Kharkiv, damaging cars but causing no injuries. Later, a drone hit a residential building in Saltivskyi district, injuring four people. Preliminary reports indicate Russia used the new Molniya-1 drone model.

• In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks on November 13 left two dead and seven wounded.

• According to a recent poll by the Rating sociological group (conducted September 27 - October 1), 88% of Ukrainians believe in victory over Russia, while 10% do not. Over 60% anticipate the war ending within two years. Since April 2022, public confidence in Ukrainian victory has decreased by 9-10%.

• Survey results show that 26% of Ukrainians perceive the mobilization level as too high, 32% as optimal, and 25% as insufficient. Another 17% were undecided. Since February 2024, the perception of mobilization as too high has risen by 7%, while those seeing it as insufficient has dropped by 11%.