Russia’s war on Ukraine. 12.12.25
Operational situation
On the Northen Slobozhanske Direction, the command of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps organizes the evacuation of the dead and wounded near Oleksiivka and Varachyne.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army fights for Lyman. Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk, Starytsia, Synelnykove, Prylypky, Vovchanski Khutory, Vilcha, Lyman, in the direction of Okhrymivka, Izbytske, Obukhivka, near Dvorichanske.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance along highway H26 Kupiansk–Kharkiv southwest of Kupiansk, attacked near Kutkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Borova, Bohuslavka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, in the direction of Cherneshchyna.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Myrove and Radkivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the western part of Yarova, attacked near Lyman, Derylove, Novoselivka, Drobysheve, Oleksandrivka, Korovyi Yar, Stavky, Kolodyaz, Zarichne, Torske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Lyman.
On the Sloviansk direction, forces advanced north of Sviato-Pokrovske, attacked near and inside Siversk, near Yampil, Zakitne, Dronivka, in the direction of Ozerne, Dibrova, near Pereyizne.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Virolyubivka, in the direction of Minkivka, near Oleksandro-Shultyne, Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, Yablunivka, in the direction of Illinivka, near Rusyn Yar, Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north and west of Ivanivka, attacked near Shakhove, Novo Shakhove, in the direction of Novyi Donbas, Kucheriv Yar, Zapovidne, Ivanivka, near and inside Pokrovsk, near Hryshyne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, in the direction of Bilytske, near Krasnyi Lyman, Razyne, Novoekonomichne, near and inside Myrnohrad, near Udachne, Novopidhorodnie, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Molodetske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the northeastern part of Myrnohrad.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka, Novomykolayivka, Filiya but failed to advance, attacked near Zelenyi Hai, Ivanivka, Novoselivka, Stepove, Voronoe, Sosnivka, Vyshneve, Verbove, Krasnohirske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Tykhe.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the center of Huliaypole, attacked near Dobropillya, Andriivka, in the direction of Zelenyi, near Solodke, Rybne, Yehorivka, Pryvillya, Uspenivka, Pryvilne, Vysoke, gained fire control over Huliaypole, highway T0814 Huliaypole–Tavriyske, obstructing Ukrainian logistics to Huliaypole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces operate northeast of Kamianske.
Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Stepnohirsk, Prymorske.
On the Prydniprovske Direction, Russian forces attacked near the Antonivskyi Bridge.
General conclusion:
Russian forces press Ukrainian positions near and inside Vovchansk, attempting to push them out of this area. Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions in Vovchansk, although the enemy attempts to advance toward the city center, using its advantage in manpower.
The 11th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Defense Forces continues to hold Siversk. The forces of the 3rd Combined Arms Army attempt to encircle Siversk from the north and south, cut Ukrainian logistics, and avoid urban combat, relying on UAVs, artillery, and airstrikes.
The forces of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will have to complete the capture of Lyman and advance 14 km from Lyman to Sloviansk, including forcing the Siverskyi Donets River, or cover 30 km from Siversk to Sloviansk, and only then begin the assault on the agglomeration.
On the Pokrovske Direction, the enemy moves into Pokrovsk individually or in pairs. Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct a tactical withdrawal from Myrnohrad to the area near Svitle.
On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces continue attempts to break through gaps in the Ukrainian defense in small groups and exploit adverse weather conditions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:
There were 174 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 6 combat engagements took place.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 5 combat engagements took place. The enemy attempted to advance in the area of Prylipka and in the direction of Izbytske and Okhrymivka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assault in the area of Stepova Novoselivka.
On the Lyman direction, the invaders attacked 11 times, attempting to advance in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Derylove, Kolodyazi, Zarichne and in the direction of Karmazynivka.
On the Sloviansk direction, the enemy carried out six attacks in the areas of Dronivka, Serebrianka, and Pereyizne.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, enemy units carried out 18 attacks in the areas of Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Ivanopillya, Kostyantynivka, Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar, and in the direction of Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 49 offensive actions of the aggressor were stopped in the areas of Shakhove, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, and in the direction of Novopavlivka.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 attacks near Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, Sichneve, Verbove, Pryvillya, Vyshneve, Krasnohirske, Rybne, and Pryvilne.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 attacks in the area of Huliaypole and in the direction of Dobropillya and Varvarivka.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the invader forces attacked 16 times in the areas of Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Stepnohirsk, and in the direction of Prymorske and Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovske direction, an enemy offensive attempt was unsuccessful.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out UAV strikes on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, oil refining infrastructure in the Sochi–Tuapse area, and the Filanovskyi oil field of Lukoil-Nizhnevolzhskneft in the Caspian Sea.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 204th Separate SOF Regiment operates near Myropillya.
The 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army operates near Yampil, and the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates in Siversk.
The “Sever-V” Brigade delivers strikes against Ukrainian positions north of Chasiv Yar, and the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Sofiivka.
The 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate in the Dobropillya area.
The 1st Battalion of the 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 29th Combined Arms Army operates in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army operate in the southern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army operates in Huliaypole.
The 328th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division delivers strikes against Ukrainian forces on the eastern outskirts of Kamianske.
Possible operation situation developments:
The Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry assesses that the enemy will not be able to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the spring of 2026. If current fighting continues at the same pace, the enemy could possibly take control of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kupyansk no earlier than year’s end.
On the Southern Slobozhanske Direction, the enemy will attempt to break through in the area of Tsehelne toward the Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv road and the highway to Rubizhne and will try to seize the southern part of Vovchansk with the forces of a tactical grouping formed from elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 11th and the 44th Army Corps. The main forces of the 6th Combined Arms Army will advance from the Vovchansk–Bilyi Kolodyaz area and from the bridgehead on the Oskil through Hryhorivka along converging directions toward Velykyi Burluk, pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the entire territory east of the Siverskyi Donets. Attacks toward Milove–Ambarne and a push toward Hryhorivka from the north are possible. To reduce the combat potential of the Defense Forces’ 16th Army Corps in the Vovchansk area, the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping command will intensify fire on the key supply routes leading to the Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk areas from the west, southwest, and south, especially at the Siverskyi Donets crossings (the areas of Verkhnya Pysarivka, Staryi Saltiv, and Pechenihy). There is also a high likelihood of enemy strikes in the areas of Bilyi Kolodiaz, Velykyi Burluk, Rubizhne, and Buhayivka. The enemy’s theater-level command is preparing to reinforce the tactical grouping in the Vovchansk area with additional units of the 14th Army Corps and the 1st Tank Army of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping.
On the Lyman direction, the troops of the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will advance toward Shandryholove–Novoselivka and Zelena Dolyna–Drobysheve and will push into the Novoselivka–Drobysheve–Pryshyb–Yarova area, while simultaneously expanding its tactical bridgehead on the Nitrius River near the village of Serednie, in order to block Lyman from the northwest and cut all communications running along the Siverskyi Donets River toward Izium. The enemy may attempt an immediate crossing of the Siverskyi Donets in the Zakytne–Dronivka area, which will complicate the further defense of Siversk.
The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attack in the directions of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka, attempting to cut the H20 highway Kostyantynivka–Sloviansk, which will complicate the logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 19th Army Corps in Kostyantynivka. The enemy will deliver concentric strikes simultaneously from Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, and from the Poltavka–Yablunivka line. The enemy’s naval infantry grouping operating on the adjacent flank of the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies will attempt to break through from the southwest to the near approaches of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, bypassing them from the west. The enemy’s 3rd Army Corps and the formations of the 8th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through toward Kostyantynivka, reach the T0504 road, and ease their advance toward Kostyantynivka through Predtechyne and Stupochky. In the area southeast of Kostyantynivka, the enemy will attempt to create an informational pretext regarding a “successful start of the battle for the capture of Kostyantynivka” and will try to isolate the units of Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 11th Army Corps, which continue to successfully defend the Chasiv Yar area, from the defense area in Kostyantynivka. The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will break through to the Novodmytrivka–Chervone line in an attempt to completely collapse Ukrainian defenses in the Chasiv Yar area by applying pressure from the south.
The command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in order to prevent the withdrawal of elements of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad bridgehead, will make efforts to achieve a deeper envelopment of the western flank of the Pokrovsk defense area, attacking northward from the Udachne–Kotlyne line and attempting to break through to Hryshyne. The withdrawal of elements of Ukrainian Defense Forces from Myrnohrad toward the Dobropillya area could affect the overall situation on the 51st Combined Arms Army bridgehead west of the Kazennyi Torets River. To prevent a deterioration of the situation there, the enemy would hastily organize and conduct counterattacks in the areas of Ivanivka and Nove Shakhove.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the troops of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to envelop the Huliaypole defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north and block its main lines of communication. The troops of the 36th Combined Arms Army and elements of the right flank of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be breaking through toward Pokrovske from the southeast. The enemy will attempt to reach the Khaychur River and the Huliaypole–Pokrovske road on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section.
Enemy forces of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping on the Huliaypole Direction will bypass the Huliaypole defensive area from the north, breaking through on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section, or will break through toward Pokrovske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south and southeast. At any moment, to exploit success, the 76th Air Assault Division or the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army may be committed to the operation from the Oleksandrivka Direction. The enemy is capable of creating an operational breakthrough toward Novomykolayivka and of bypassing the Orikhiv defensive area from the north. Russian military command on the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations will attempt to collapse the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the southeast of Zaporizhzhia and break through to its approaches. To achieve this, it will simultaneously advance toward Zaporizhzhia both from the east, from Donetsk along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, and from the south. By active offensive actions in the area of Danylivka, the enemy will attempt to isolate the Ukrainian grouping in Huliaypole from its main forces in the Pokrovske–Oleksandrivka area, force the Khaychur River in the Danylivka–Dobropillya area, and encircle Huliaypole from the northwest.
On the Orikhiv direction, the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will attempt to break through along the left bank of the Dnipro River from the Plavni – Kamianske line toward Stepnohirsk and from the Stepove – Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction aiming to reach close approaches to the city of Zaporizhzhia.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.12.25
Personnel - almost 1,186 480 (+1,400);
Tanks – 11,406 (+2);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,705 (+6);
Artillery systems – 35,008 (+16);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,566 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,256 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 69,614 (+107);
Aircraft - 432 (+1);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 89,401 (+253);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,060 (+2);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the evening of December 11, Russian forces had attacked Ukraine with 80 strike UAVs, including Shahed and Gerbera types, as well as other drones, about 50 of which were Shaheds. By 9:00 a.m. on December 12, Ukraine’s air defenses had shot down or suppressed 64 enemy UAVs. At the same time, 12 strike UAVs hit eight locations, and debris from downed drones fell in three locations. As of 9:20 a.m., the Russian attack was ongoing, with several enemy UAVs still in Ukrainian airspace.
During the night of December 12, a Russian UAV strike on Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed a 71-year-old local resident and injured four others, including a 54-year-old woman who suffered severe burns and is in critical condition. Five private homes caught fire, one of which was completely destroyed.
Overnight, Russian forces launched a major UAV attack on Odesa district, damaging an energy facility, warehouses, an administrative building, and a garage. The strike caused temporary power outages in several settlements and damaged a residential building and other civilian infrastructure in Odesa, though there were no casualties. Critical infrastructure continues to operate on generators.
During the night, the enemy carried out drone strikes on energy facilities across several oblasts. By morning, a significant number of consumers in Odesa and Donetsk oblasts were without power. Localized outages also occurred in Kharkiv Oblast. In Odesa Oblast, Russian forces struck a DTEK substation, the twentieth substation in the region to suffer major damage. Another facility belonging to a different energy company was also hit. Over 85,000 consumers remain without electricity.
On the night of December 12, Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s state-owned coal mines with UAVs for more than six hours, causing roughly 18 hits. The strikes sparked a fire and injured two workers.
In the morning, Russian forces shelled the village of Zelenivka in Kherson Oblast and attacked the Dnipro district of Kherson with a drone. Around 8:50 a.m., two people in a car were injured in Zelenivka. Earlier, at approximately 8:20 a.m., a woman in the Dnipro district of Kherson was injured in a drone strike. By 5:30 p.m., another person was reported injured in Kherson.
Russian forces targeted a sports school in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, with UAVs while children were training, sending two drones to the location. Oleg Hryhorov, head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, confirmed it was a deliberate strike where children were present. All children and coaches were promptly evacuated to safety, and preliminary reports indicate no casualties or injuries.
During the day on December 12, Russian occupation forces attacked the community of Nova Vodolaha in Kharkiv Oblast with UAVs, injuring six people, one of whom is in serious condition.
Russian forces also struck the cities of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing two people and injuring seven others. In Druzhkivka, Russian FPV drones targeted civilian vehicles, injuring six people and damaging three cars. In Kostyantynivka, an aerial bomb killed two, injured one, and damaged a multi-story building and a car.
On December 12, Russian forces also launched ballistic missile and drone strikes on Odesa and the surrounding oblast, damaging a civilian vessel in the port of Chornomorsk.
In Kharkiv Oblast, 43 underground schools are under construction as part of the comprehensive “School Offline” program, five of which are being implemented with support from The Howard G. Buffett Foundation.