Russia's war on Ukraine. 12.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to storm Ukrainian positions near Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched 21 attacks near Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Kucherivka, Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Pishchane. Fighting continues in the areas around Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, and Kolisnykivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 attacks near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Terny, and Zarichne on the Lyman direction. Another 12 Russian assaults were stopped near Makiivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Bilohorivka, and Katerynivka. On the Siversk direction, the enemy conducted no offensive actions but they did carry out an airstrike on Yasnohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces failed in 5 attempts to advance near Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces conducted 13 assaults, applying pressure and attempting to advance near Toretsk.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, Russian forces intensely attack Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Pokrovsk direction, launching 19 assaults. The highest level of Russian activity is observed in the areas of Selydove, Myrnohrad, and Lysivka. On the Kurakhove direction, 32 combat clashes were recorded, with Russian forces trying to advance near Novoselydivka, Maksymilianivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Zoryane, Kurakhove, Zhelanne Druhe, Tsukuryne, Kurakhivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, and Vodyane. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 8 enemy attacks near Bohoyavlenka, Zolota Nyva, Rivnopil, and Novoukrainske, with 7 ongoing battles near Novodaryivka, Levadne, and Olhivske. Russian forces actively use aviation during these offensives.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, 3 Russian assaults failed.
General conclusion:
Russian forces intensified their efforts to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast, nearly eliminating a smaller Ukrainian salient in the Glushkovo district. They intensified counterattacks in the Glushkovo district on the left flank of the main Ukrainian salient in the Korenevo district and on the right flank in the Sudzha district.
On the Kharkiv direction, elements of the Russian 6th Combined Arms Army are advancing toward Vovchansk and Bilyi Kolodiaz. They aim to breach the defenses of the Ukrainian "Kharkiv" OTG attempting to cross the Vovcha River between its confluence with the Seversky Donets River and the Vovchanski Khutory area. The goal is to create favorable conditions for the deployment of two regiments from the 69th Motorized Rifle Division to exploit any success.
Russian forces reduced their offensive pace near Chasiv Yar, shifting reinforcements to the area in preparation for renewed action. Intense fighting continues in the "Zhovtnevyi" neighborhood, where Russian troops attempt to cut off Ukrainian supply routes.
Russian troops use powerful electronic warfare systems on the Kurakhove direction, which complicates Ukrainian military operations in the area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 146 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced into the center of Kremiannoe, reached the northern outskirts of Zelionyi Put, pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces back from Vesioloe, and encircled Ukrainian positions near Liubimovka and Plekhovo. They captured Olgovka, Nizhniy Klin, advanced on the outskirts of Tolstyi Lug and Novoivanovka, and moved 2 km north of Malaya Loknia, into the area of Medvezhye. Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Liubimovka, Martynovka, and Mikhailovka, approaching the international border with Sumy Oblast.
The 155th and 810th Separate Marines Brigades conducted counterattacks in the Korenevo district, attempting to advance toward the northwestern outskirts of Sudzha, where the 83rd airborne brigade and 1220th motorized rifle regiment also launched attacks.
Ukrainian forces of the “Siversk” OTG hold positions near Krasnooktiabrskoe and the outskirts of Novyi Put.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Vovchansk, Starytsya, and Tykhe.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Andriivka, advanced toward Kyslivka, and continued assaults near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced toward Nevske. The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army attacked near Novosadove. The enemy also launched assaults near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Ploshchanka, Druzhelyubivka, Torske, and the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Verkhnyokamianske, though unsuccessfully.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Kalynivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and New York. The enemy controls 40% of Toretsk, advanced in the area of Tsentralna Street, but suffers significant losses.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces captured and cleared enemy positions in the wooded area north of Novohrodivka.
Russian forces advanced toward the Concrete Plant east of Selydove, consolidated near the railway by Tsukuryne, in eastern Lysivka, and approached the C050951 road from Selydove to Novodmytrivka, cutting off two out of five roads from Selydove. The enemy launched attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Kalynove, Lysivka, Selydove, Kruty Yar, Tsukuryne, and Novoselydivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced to the western outskirts of Ostrivske and continued their offensive near Heorhiivka and Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Zolota Nyva, Rivnopil, Novodaryivka, Levadne, and Olhivske.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka, though without success.
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a counterattack near Kamianske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces inflicted significant damage on a Shahed UAV storage site near Oktiabrskoye in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, destroying approximately 400 drones.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 106th Airborne Division, the 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Chechnya," the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division, along with the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, counterattack in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast.
The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Katerynivka. The 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are engaged toward Kostyantynivka, while the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is active near Zolota Nyva.
The 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army operates near Robotyne, and the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 38th Combined Arms Army is active near Kopani.
Within the 9th and 114th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army (which are actively engaged on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove directions), additional artillery battalions are being formed, each with three batteries of howitzers and one reactive artillery battalion.
The 23rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army is being reorganized into a separate anti-aircraft missile brigade, which will be equipped with three battalions armed with the 9K37 "Buk" air defense missile system. Similar measures are expected for the 3rd Combined Arms Army.
In the operational first-echelon reserve on the Kharkiv direction, units being held include the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 15th Tank Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 360th Reserve Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps, and the 1045th Reserve Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Combined Arms Army. In total, the enemy’s "Belgorod" Operational Grouping has around 6,500 personnel, 75 tanks, 68 armored vehicles, 64 guns and mortars, and 4 multiple rocket launchers in reserve. The largest reserves are held by the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping on the Pokrovsk direction, with up to 15,000 personnel, and the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping on the Kramatorsk direction, with up to 8,800 personnel.
Possible operation situation developments:
· Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
· The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
· In the near future, the command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping, along with the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, will attempt another breakthrough in the Zoryane and Kurakhivka areas from the north. This breakthrough will be supported from the south by the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, which will attack in the directions of Hostre–Oleksandropil and Hostre–Ostrivske, attempting to advance through Maksymilianivka towards Kurakhove.
· The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
· By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.10.24
Personnel - almost 667,630 (+1,290);
Tanks 8,962 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,827 (+27);
Artillery systems – 19,381 (+59);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,230 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 976 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,513 (+115);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,947 (+110);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,619 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 12, Russian forces launched an unspecified number of missiles and 28 drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down 24 enemy drones.
That same night, Zaporizhzhia was struck, targeting residential homes and industrial facilities. The attack injured three people, including a child, and damaged 63 homes.
Russian occupiers shelled a district of Kherson, causing fires in a storage area and an industrial waste site. Due to continuous attacks, firefighters had to repeatedly evacuate to safety before resuming efforts to extinguish the fires.
On Saturday, drone attacks and shelling in the Kharkiv Oblast injured five civilians.
In Donetsk, two civilians were killed and ten others wounded in shelling. Among the dead was a 19-year-old driver whose vehicle was hit by a Russian FPV drone between the villages of Ulakli and Dachne in Volnovakha district.
The Zaporizhzhia Center for Missing Persons, operating for nine months, has helped to clarify the fate of nearly 1,190 citizens.
Over 300 chaplains from 13 different religious organizations serve in the Ukrainian military, according to the Strategic Communications Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.
In Russian-occupied Khrustalny, Luhansk Oblast, the occupiers opened a military training class for children starting from the fifth grade, teaching them warfare skills.