Russia's war on Ukraine. 12.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued assault actions, with 3 combat engagements occurring in the areas of Hatyshche, Lyptsi, and Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, 16 enemy attacks were recorded. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Lozova, Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, and Andriivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy assaults in the areas of Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Dibrova. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one attack near Vyimka. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, conducted 6 attacks, focusing efforts near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Dachne.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 attacks. The enemy concentrated its main efforts in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Hrodivka, Novotroitske, Novohrodivka, Selidove, and Mykhailivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the enemy back in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Ukrainsk, and Heorhiivka. Overall, the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 23 times in this direction. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers conducted 4 attacks on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions toward Vuhledar. The enemy failed. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 2 unsuccessful combat engagements for the enemy near Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, no positions or territories were lost. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 7 Russian attacks.
General conclusion:
Russian forces launched counterattacks on the western flank of the "Siversk" OTG’s bridgehead in Kursk Oblast, capturing several villages northeast and south of Korenevo. The scale, scope, and potential prospects of these Russian counterattacks remain unclear, but the situation overall is stable.
"Siversk" OTG initiated new attacks west of Snagost and along the entire Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kramatorsk direction lack sufficient air defense systems to counter both enemy bombers and guided bombs with UMPK kits.
The exhaustion of attacking Russian forces may force their military command to prematurely halt offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations is attempting to deploy the maximum possible number of forces and assets along the flanking sectors of its "Tsentr (Center)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings. The "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping (2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army) was reinforced by the 1st, 9th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, along with units from the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment. The "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping was reinforced by the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the main forces of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and a battalion of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 51st Combined Arms Army.
The enemy is unable to advance toward Selidove or enter the city from the direction of Mykhailivka, but a breakthrough south of the city has significantly complicated its defense.
The most threatening axis for further enemy advances appears to be the Novohrodivka–Sukhyi Yar direction, where the enemy has managed to push toward Lisivka, advancing along the Solona River.
The command of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping is unable to conduct a classic encirclement operation around Pokrovsk due to the firm defense of Selidove by "Tavriya" OSG, as well as the strong defense of the Shevchenko–Chunyshyne–Dachynske–Novyi Trud area and the inability to reach the defensive line of Myrnohrad–Malynivka due to the steadfast defense of the barrier line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets Rivers by "Tavriya" OSG.
Russian forces are forming tactical and operational-strategic reserves. Between October 2023 and June 2024, the enemy has amassed up to 60,000 personnel in their operational and strategic reserves, sufficient only for creating limited reserves.
Russian forces have not used Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) on a large scale since mid-2022, following the mass failure of these units to fulfill combat objectives in the early stages of the war and their heavy losses during offensive operations near Kyiv, Sievierodonetsk, Mariupol, and Lysychansk. Over the past two years, the Russian military has abandoned the use of BTGs as organized structures, and their reappearance in Kursk Oblast would mark a significant shift.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 105 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps captured Olgovka. Russian forces retook positions east of Zhuravli and captured Komarovka, Vishniovka, Apanasovka, 10 Let Oktiabria, Obukhovka, Byakhovo, Vnezapnoe, and Gordeevka. They repelled "Siversk" OTG attacks near Apanasovka, Kremyanoe, Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and Borki. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet pushed back the 22nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from positions near Olgovka and unblocked several encircled units in the Sheptukhovka area.
"Siversk" OTG began flanking attacks on Russian forces west of Snagost and advanced near Kulbaki. They also assaulted enemy positions in the Glushkovo district near Medvezhie. The 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade repelled an attack by the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet from the area of Elizavetovka and held its positions. However, the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division attacked its northern flank at the junction with the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade from positions southwest of Korenevo towards Snagost. The 103rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade is under heavy airstrikes and withdrew its right-flank units from Komarovka towards Liubimovka. The 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade halted enemy advances north of Kremyanoe and south of Kalinov.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces operated with small assault groups using light (unarmored) vehicles, attacking towards Hlyboke from positions in Strilecha, near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, Hatyshche, and Tykhe.
Units of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Division and the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps operate in the Hlyboke–Lyptsi area. The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which arrived from Zaporizhzhia Oblast to support the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, is operating near Tykhe.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Stelmakhivka along the forest line north of Pishchane and continued offensive actions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Lozova, and Hlushkivka. The enemy is focusing efforts on advancing from Pishchane towards Kolisnykivka and the Oskil River.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces crossed the Zherebets River at Makiivka and are fighting on the opposite bank, attacked near Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Novosadove, Terny, Nevske, and Torske.
On the Siversk Direction, fighting continued near Hryhorivka, around Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, close to Kalynivka and Ivanivske. The enemy crossed the Siversky Donets–Donbas canal near Kurdyumivka and is advancing towards Predtechyne, approaching Chasiv Yar from the south. Russian aviation intensified airstrikes on Kramatorsk using guided bombs.
On the Toretsk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces made small advances near Toretsk. The enemy continued attacks near Dachne, Pivnichne, and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Lisivka and advanced further southeast of Pokrovsk, moving into the fields west of Marynivka, which they captured days ago. They advanced northeast and east of Selydove, west of Novohrodivka, and toward eastern Ukrainsk. In the fields to the north and southeast of Ukrainsk, they are attempting to encircle Ukrainian units within the town, breaking through between Ukrainsk and Selydove from the Memryk side.
Russian forces also continued offensive operations in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Svyrydonivka, Hrodivka, Ivanivka, Mykhailivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Selydove, Ukrainsk, and Hirnyk.
The 59th Separate Mechanized Infantry Brigade continues to hold its positions near Nevelske, inflicting heavy losses on the 96th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the 1st Tank Army, which is advancing in this area. The "Tavriya" OSG command began a phased withdrawal of its forward units from the entire Nevelske salient to avoid encirclement. The troops are gradually retreating to the Zhelanne Pershe–Zoryane line, then to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line, leveling the front line while conducting rear-guard actions near Halytsynivka and north of Krasnohorivka. The key to the success of this complex maneuver is holding positions in the Hirnyk area. Ukrainian Defense Forces are attempting to use the natural barrier along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made slight advances northeast of Krasnohorivka and continued attacking near Heorhiivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and Pavlivka. The enemy not only secured positions in Vodyane, near mines #1 and #3, but also continued advancing north of Vuhledar and towards Bohoyavlenka, supported by heavy airstrikes and a large number of FPV drones.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Mali Shcherbaky and Mala Tokmachka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
A special operations unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate attacked the "Crimea-2" sea platform on 14 high-speed Willard boats. The enemy reported the destruction of 8 boats. At the same time, a Su-30SM fighter of the 43rd Naval Assault Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet was shot down by a man-portable air defense system (MANPADS).
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army are engaged in combat operations In Hrodivka.
The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army captured Vodyane.
The 104th Air Assault Division is operating on the Kherson direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
The enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
Delaying the decision to withdraw the "Tavriya" OSG forces from the bridgehead on the Vovcha River in the Nevelske area on the Pokrovsk direction to the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line will lead to their encirclement.
"Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
In the area of Staromayorske, the aggressor is forming a tactical breakthrough group consisting of 7,000 to 10,000 troops, which may attempt to break through in the direction of Velyka Novosilka. Another tactical group, smaller in size, is being formed east of Kostyantynivka with the objective of enveloping Vuhledar from the north or advancing towards Kurakhove from the south. The main problem is the lack of personnel. The most likely scenario would be an attempt to encircle and capture the areas of Makarivka – Velyka Novosilka – Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka – Pavlivka – Vodyane.
The enemy will likely attempt to encircle “Tavriya” OSG units on the eastern bridgehead of the Vovcha River, advancing towards Nevelske. They plan to engage the main forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army to secure the right flank of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Selidove area along the Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line. Meanwhile, the 2nd Combined Arms Army will continue to push its offensive towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
We should anticipate enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.09.24
Personnel - almost 630,200 (+1,270);
Tanks 8,653 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 16,955 (+17);
Artillery systems – 18,009 (+73);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,184 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 945 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,481 (+93);
Aircraft - 369 (+1);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 15,033 (+43);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,591 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
On the night of September 12, 2024, the Air Force's radio-technical troops detected and tracked 69 enemy air attack assets (as of 9:00 AM). The occupiers launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one guided Kh-59/69 aviation missile, two Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and 64 Shahed-type strike drones. In the resulting air defense battle, 44 strike drones were shot down. Three enemy drones returned to Russia, and four more were lost on Ukrainian territory.
During the nighttime air raid alert, air defense forces destroyed 10 enemy Shahed drones over Khmelnytskyi Oblast. A fire broke out at one of the furniture storage warehouses. The authorities later reported one UAV flying close to Khmelnytskyi power plant.
As a result of a Russian strike on energy and civilian infrastructure facilities in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, 14 people were injured, and the energy infrastructure was severely damaged. The electricity supply situation in Konotop is critical.
On September 12, Russians shelled the village of Krasnoyarske and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing an 81-year-old woman and injuring six others.
A Russian strike using cluster munitions on a residential area in Borova, Izium Raion, Kharkiv Oblast, killed two people and injured seven others, with residential buildings set on fire.
A morning artillery shelling in Virolubivka, Kostyantynivka community, Donetsk Oblast, killed three International Committee of the Red Cross workers, while two others were injured. ICRC strongly condemned the attack.
On Thursday, September 12, Russia struck a civilian cargo ship in the Black Sea carrying wheat to Egypt. According to preliminary reports, there were no human casualties.
Due to ongoing fighting, the modular filtration station that recently supplied water to Pokrovsk has ceased operations. Currently, it is impossible to restore its work.
The Kharkiv Oblast Defense Council decided to enforce the evacuation of 269 children from 29 settlements in the Kupiansk Raion.
In Kyiv and 16 other oblasts, power outage schedules were introduced. By the end of Thursday, September 12, the first group of consumers will face power restrictions. No outage schedules are planned for Friday.
On September 11, civilian energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv Oblasts came under enemy fire.
Ukrainian experts have identified the source of pollution in the Seym and Desna rivers. According to nearly 100% confirmed data, it is the Tyotkino Sugar Plant, located in Russia's Kursk Oblast. Around 5.7 thousand tons of sugar processing products were released into the water over a period of 7-9 days. These were exclusively organic substances, which depleted all oxygen within hours. In Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, 31 tons of fish have been collected, killed due to the river pollution. Restoring biodiversity and bioresources in the Seym and Desna rivers will take 2-3 years.