Russia's war on Ukraine. 12.07.25
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked Tetkino, counterattacked near Bezsalivka, Kindrativka, Andriivka, and Oleksiivka.
Russian troops advanced on the northern outskirts of Myropillya, attempted to advance near Ryzhivka and Yunakivka, attacked near Bezsalivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops attacked near Zelene, Vovchansk, Starytsya, Petro-Ivanivka, Zapadne, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, advanced east of Petropavlivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced east of Kindrashivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops attempted to advance to Borivska Andriivka, attacked near Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bohuslavka.
On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the center of Ridkodub, counterattacked near Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Katerynivka.
The 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army attacks in the western and central parts of Zelena Dolyna. Russian troops attacked in the direction of Shandryholove, near Ridkodub, Karpivka, Serednie, Novyi Myr, Kolodyazi, Torske, and Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian troops attempted to advance south of Hryhorivka, attacked near Hryhorivka, Serebrianka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, in the direction of Vyiimka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops advanced in the southwestern part of Chasiv Yar and northwest of the city, attacked near Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Mykolaivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced northeast of Koptieve, attempted to advance along highway T0516 Toretsk – Kostyantynivka, northwest of Yablunivka, southwest of Katerynivka, southeast of Rusyn Yar, east of Popiv Yar, attacked near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Poltavka, Pleshchiivka, Stepanivka, Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops attempted to advance north of Hrodivka, continued assaults in the direction of Rodynske, Serhiyivka, near Pokrovsk, near Myroliubivka, Malynivka, Razyne, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Shevchenkove, Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the western outskirts of Novoserhiyivka.
The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, with the support of Special Forces, advanced to the center and southern outskirts of Myrne. Russian troops conduct battles for Hrushivske, continued assaults on Novopavlivka, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Orikhove, Oleksiivka, Fedorivka, Yalta, Zaporizhzhia, Piddubne, Tolstoi, Novokhatske, Shevchenkove, Vilne Pole, Voskresenka, Novosilka, Zelene Pole, Dachne, and Maliivka of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops advanced on the southern outskirts of Plavni, attempted to advance north and east of Kamyanske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kamyanske, struck the enemy's military-logistical center in Melitopol, destroyed a satellite communication system, hit a military echelon transporting 20 tanks, between Tokmak and Chernihivka.
General conclusion:
According to the estimates of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the enemy will not be able to achieve the Kremlin's goal of capturing the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025. The new operational task of the enemy grouping in the theater of military operations is to advance to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and create a buffer zone 10 km deep. According to The Economist's assessment, full occupation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts is possible no earlier than February 2028, provided current rates of advancement are maintained.
Russian troops in Vovchansk and surrounding villages continue to attack in small groups, continue unsuccessful attempts to push Ukrainian positions away from the Vovcha River. Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions at the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant.
Russian troops attempted to restore a damaged bridge near Dvorichna to transfer troops across the Oskil River, but Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed it.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian troops accumulate infantry near Horikhove.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 186 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 17 combat engagements occurred. The enemy carried out 8 air strikes.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, the aggressor assaulted Defense Forces positions 8 times in the areas of Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and in the direction of Petro-Ivanivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, 8 enemy attacks were recorded. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Stepova Novoselivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove, and in the direction of Pishchane.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 34 times, attempted to advance near Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Novyi Myr, Karpivka, Serednie, Hlushchenkove, Kolodyazi, and in the directions of Shandryholove, Torske, and Serebrianka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy carried out 5 attacks in the areas of Ivano-Dariivka and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 4 combat engagements were recorded towards Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 11 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka, and towards Pleshchiivka, Katerynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 63 offensive actions by the aggressor were stopped in the areas of Popiv Yar, Novoekonomichne, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Muravka, Novoukrainka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Orikhove, Oleksiivka, Malynivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, and in the directions of Pokrovsk, Serhiyivka, and Rodynske.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 attacks near Zaporizhzhia, Tolstoi, Piddubne, Komar, Voskresenka, Novopil, Novosilka, and Zelene Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, one enemy attack in the Kamyanske area was successfully repelled.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the enemy attempted to advance towards Defense Forces fortifications 6 times without success.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out UAV airstrikes on targets in Belgorod Oblast.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine conducted sabotage on a gas pipeline near Langepas, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Russia.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1st Battalion of the 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Chechnya" operates in Novomykolayivka; the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is active near Yunakivka.
The 2nd Battalion of the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army operates near Kindrashivka.
The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment advances in the direction of Kostyantynivka; the 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Oleksandro-Kalynove; the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the Army fights between Romanivka and Katerynivka.
The 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army operates near Muravka; the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army is engaged near Piddubne and in the direction of Oleksandrohrad.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army operates near Voskresenka; the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army is engaged southwest of Vilne Pole; the 14th Separate SOF Brigade is deployed in the direction of Velyka Novosilka; the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army fights near Sichneve.
The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates near Chervone; the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Army advances in the direction of Huliaypole.
The 108th, 247th Air Assault Regiments of the 7th Air Assault Division operate in Kamyanske; the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army fights near Novodanylivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping is trying to reach the Mala Korchakivka – Nova Sich – Maryinka – Sadky line.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, in the near future, the command of the Russian “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its recent tactical success and try to seize the area of Mala Shapkivka – Kindrashivka – Tyshchenivka – Velyka Shapkivka, and break through directly to the northern outskirts of Kupyansk, in the area of Moskovka. The enemy will also attempt an attack from Holubivka toward Radkivka, aiming to capture the latter.
On the Lyman direction, the forces of the Russian “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will likely attempt to reach the line of Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve, while simultaneously advancing near Torske in an effort to enter Lyman from the east. The command of the 25th Combined Arms Army has not achieved significant results in this direction, but it is not excluded that the “Starobilsk” Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) will be forced to withdraw from the area of Kopani – Novoyehorivka – Druzhelyubivka – Cherneshchyna, in response to the enemy’s advance along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in the direction of Bilohorivka – Serebrianka, within the operational zone of the neighboring 3rd Combined Arms Army of the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
On the Siversk direction, the command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt to eliminate the Siversk salient held by "Khortytsia" OSG and break through towards the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration. The 3rd Combined Arms Army will try to break through to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka, and from the southeast – toward Siversk. One should expect a revitalization of combat operations in the south-to-north direction with the enemy reaching the eastern outskirts of Siversk. The enemy will not be able to achieve its goal without reinforcing its grouping in that direction (primarily with the 106th Airborne Division).
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army may shift the direction of their main strike to the north of Chasiv Yar and launch an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road, along the directions of Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya. This would allow them to break through to the immediate approaches to Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat of a deep envelopment of the right flank of the “Starobilsk” Operational Tactical Group (OTG). If the enemy succeeds in achieving operational surprise along these directions and advances to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka section on the Lyman direction will deteriorate significantly for the “Kharkiv” OTG.
The enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping advanced to the northeast of Pokrovsk and will likely attempt to advance further in the coming months in order to achieve an envelopment of Pokrovsk and to bypass the “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast from the west. The enemy command may attempt to exploit the penetration in the Pokrovsk–Toretsk sector to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast and north, or to bypass the defenses of the “Khortytsia” Operational and Strategic Grouping (OSG) in Kostyantynivka from the southwest and west. Further Russian advance north and west of the Razyne directly depends on the combat capability of the involved units (the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army). In order to advance west of Razyne, Russian forces would need to force the Kazennyi Torets River at several locations, which could present an obstacle to their advance. The enemy would also have to seize villages along the Pokrovsk–Oleksandrivka line in order to fully sever Ukrainian logistics.
Envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast would require the enemy to advance significantly toward Rodynske, seize it, and establish a strong defensive area there to enable attacks on Pokrovsk or to advance toward Novooleksandrivka in order to cut the M30 highway (Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad) and compel the “Khortytsia” OSG to withdraw from Pokrovsk under threat of encirclement. Other possible courses of action for the enemy could include an advance north of Udachne or Kotlyne to sever the M30 highway, if they manage to break through Ukrainian defenses, or an attempt to penetrate between Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka in order to bypass the “fortress belt” from the west. Russian forces will attempt to advance to Rodynske from positions in the Novoekonomichne area and force the Defense Forces to retreat from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad under threat of encirclement, before resuming the offensive in the direction of Kostyantynivka.
The operational situation on the Novopavlivka direction is significantly more dangerous than on the Sumy direction and threatens potential negative consequences for Ukrainian Defense Forces both operationally and strategically. If the Defense Forces’ command fails to stabilize the situation in this direction in the near future, Ukraine’s military and political leadership should prepare for the possible opening of the Pavlohrad operational direction and the emergence of operational complications for the “Tavriya” OSG on the Zaporizhzhia direction. At the same time, a possible enemy offensive operation to seize the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration should also be taken into account. The enemy's continued operational success threatens to destabilize the situation in the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia directions.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 12.07.25
Personnel - almost 1,032 690 (+1,070);
Tanks – 11,013 (0);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 22,980 (+1);
Artillery systems – 30194 (+31);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,437 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,193 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 54,822 (+90);
Aircraft - 421 (0);
Helicopters – 340 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 45,248 (+245);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 3,459 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of July 12, Russia launched 597 unmanned aerial vehicles at Ukraine, including 339 Shahed attack drones and 258 decoy drones, as well as 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles. The Air Force shot down 344 aerial targets: 319 Shaheds and 25 missiles. Another 258 decoy drones were declared lost to targeting. One missile and 20 attack UAVs hit targets in five locations, with debris falling in 19.
On the morning of July 12, Russians attacked Chernivtsi Oblast with four Shahed kamikaze drones and a missile. The strike killed two people. The number of injured is 26, seven of whom are hospitalized: three are in serious condition, and four have undergone surgery; the rest received medical assistance on site.
On the night of July 12, during another massive Russian drone attack in Lviv, an attack drone hit a two-story residential building, and a series of explosions occurred in the city. As a result of the strike, windows were blown out in many buildings, and dozens of cars were damaged. Lviv Polytechnic University was affected. Twelve people were injured.
On the night of July 12, Russian troops launched a combined attack on Lutsk, using attack drones and missiles. The strike completely destroyed one private residential building, damaged several other homes and a burning car; according to preliminary data, there were no fatalities.
On the morning of July 12, Russian troops launched a combined strike on Kharkiv, firing ten munitions — two guided aerial bombs and eight Shahed attack drones. The attack damaged a critical infrastructure facility, several residential buildings, warehouses, and city power grids; windows were blown out, and cars were damaged. At least two men, aged 33 and 55, were injured and hospitalized.
On the night of July 12, Russian troops attacked Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, with an FPV drone, shelled the city again around 2:00 AM, and launched an airstrike around 8:00 AM — as a result of these three attacks, four civilians were injured: two men aged 72 and 69, who sustained burns and wounds, as well as another man and woman who were injured during the second night shelling.
Around 8:00 AM on July 12, Russians shelled the center of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. A shell hit near the bus station, killing a man born in 1990 and injuring three others. A shopping complex, car service station, educational institution, and administrative building were damaged.
A 27-year-old woman died and two other civilians were injured as a result of Russian shelling of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with heavy artillery. Private houses, outbuildings, cars, and power lines were damaged.
Around 1:00 PM, Russians struck the territory of the Sumy community with a guided aerial bomb. Previously, two residents of one of the villages of the Velyka Cherneshchyna starosta district died, and residential buildings were destroyed and damaged.
On July 11 Russian soldiers dropped explosives from a drone on a combine harvester in a field near Myroliubivka, Bilozerka community, Kherson Oblast. A 56-year-old man was injured in the attack.