Russia's war on Ukraine. 12.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) advanced on the northern outskirts of Pogrebki, counterattacked in Makhnovka.
Russian forces advanced in Russkoe Porechie, engaging in battles for Makhnovka, where Ukrainian forces partially restored their positions in the northern part of the settlement.
Fighting continued near Cherkasskoe Porechie.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Vovchansk and Starytsia, slightly retreating into Vovchansk.
The "Kharkiv" OTG counterattacked in Starytsia and Vovchansk, holding defensive positions north of the Vovcha River.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces tried to advance in Dvorichna, but Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked. The enemy advanced west of Makiivka.
The enemy attacked in the areas of Holubivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, and Stepanivka Novoselivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Zelenyi Hai, Pershotravneve, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, units of the 488th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army are securing positions in Ivanivka on the western bank of the Chorny Zherebets River, but the attempt to break through towards Kolodyazi village has not yet been successful.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, units of the 98th Airborne Division after months of fierce fighting captured Hryhorivka village to the north of Chasiv Yar, but have not been able to advance further. The enemy is stubbornly attempting to break through near the refractory materials plant and along both sides of the Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka road south of the city. The actions of the 98th Airborne Division are supported by the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued battles for Toretsk, attacking in the area of Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the 239th Tank Brigade, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 87th Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division are advancing towards Uspenivka and northwest of Solone, thus securing the left flank of the 2nd Army and the newly engaged 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army.
The enemy constantly attacks not only towards Kotlyne but also to the west, in the direction of Udachne, attempting to advance between the Solona River and the T0406 road, where the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army are engaged in battle.
In the area of Vozdvyzhenka, on the right flank of the 41st Army, the enemy completely captured the village and is trying to advance both towards the junction on the road to Kostyantynivka (the enemy’s advanced units reached a position 2 km from it) and in the direction of Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Yelyzavetivka. The enemy has gradually expanded its tactical wedge.
Ukrainian Defense Forces delivered a missile strike on the command post of the enemy’s 2nd Army in the area of Novohrodivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, after the capture of the city of Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping require regrouping in the attack zone of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army and in the operational areas of the 51st, 8th, and 29th Armies.
The 6th and 80th tank brigades, the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 67th Rifle Regiment are advancing towards Yasenove – Novoandriivka, conducting active operations along the Slovyanka – Petropavlivka line. The 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army are advancing south of them, in the directions of Shevchenko (lower) – Andriivka and Kurakhove – Dachne. The advanced units of the 90th Tank Division are engaged in heavy fighting in the areas of Novovasylivka, Yasenove, and along the Slovyanka – Petropavlivka line. The division's advance rate is slower than expected.
On the southern flank of the Kurakhove bridgehead, Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions along the line of the Sukhyi Yaly River in the section from Zelenivka to Yantarne, thus preserving the possibility for the units fighting in the area of Dachne and Andriivka to retreat in an organized manner along the Zaporizhzhia – Donetsk highway. If the 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army advance westward and capture Dachne, the withdrawal of "Khortytsia" OSG units from the Sukhyi Yaly river line will become more urgent.
On the Vremivka direction, advanced units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army took tight fire control over the road from Velyka Novosilka to Uspenivka in the section of Vremivka – Novosilka, expanding it. Advanced units of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army, and the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions in the directions of Novyi Komar – Ocheretuvate, and the southern and eastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, but so far have had no success.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army, supported by units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army, captured Neskuchne and are threatening to form a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces in this area, having seized the heights west of Neskuchne. The forces of the 5th Army advanced along the tree lines and ravines towards Novosilka. The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th army, and the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades unsuccessfully stormed north of Velyka Novosilka in the direction of Novyi Komar – Novoocheretuvate, as well as on the eastern and southern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, attacking near Rozdolne and Vremivka.
General conclusion:
The command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping is planning in the near future to encircle Pokrovsk not only from the south and southwest but also from the west, aiming to cut off the road to Mezhova near Kotlyne. South of Pokrovsk, the enemy's advance is proving no less challenging than in the areas of Novovasylivka and Solone, despite the deployment of the 74th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army. The pace of their advance here has sharply slowed compared to a week ago, now reduced to several hundred meters per day.
The 433rd and 506th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, along with units of the 74th and 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, continue their very slow progress against the defenses of the "Khortytsia" Operational Strategic Grouping (OSG). They are advancing in the directions of Pishchane–Zvirove, Dachenske–Chynushyne, and Mykolaivka–southern parts of Myrnohrad. The actions of these forces directly depend on the efforts of units attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the west, with the primary objective of cutting off the roads to Mezhova and Pavlohrad.
The command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping has decided to deploy part of the 41st Combined Arms Army to its right flank on the Pokrovsk axis. This would involve an attempt to bypass Pokrovsk from the east and northeast. Without the capture of the Myrnohrad and Promin districts, an assault on Pokrovsk exclusively from the south and southwest seems highly unlikely for the enemy.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 184 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions once in the direction of Kozacha Lopan.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were 18 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Holubivka, Synkivka, Stepanivka Novoselivka, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the invaders attacked 23 times, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defense near Zeleni Hai, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Terny, Zarichne, Hryhorivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a storm by Russian invaders near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy made 27 attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers stormed the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces 6 times in the areas of Toretsk and Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 77 offensive actions of the aggressor. The enemy actively used aviation, storming Ukrainian positions in the areas of Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zeleny, Novyi Trud, Zvirove, Novoandriivka, Uspenivka, Sloviansk, and Konstyantynopil.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainians 5 times in the areas of Novosilka and Velika Novosilka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the invaders made two unsuccessful attempts to drive Ukrainian Defense Forces’ units from the positions they held.
In the operational zone in the Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 attacks by Russian invaders. Enemy aviation carried out 6 strikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment operates near Russkoe Porechie, while the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army operate near Pogrebki.
The 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operates near Nadiia.
The 109th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operates northwest of Toretsk.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
A breakthrough to the city from the south and the gradual expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the city due to numerical superiority in forces and means (the enemy's tactics in Chasiv Yar).
A deep encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south, cutting the road to Mezhova, regrouping part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's forces, encircling the city from the north as well, cutting the T0504 road to Kostyantynivka.
It appears likely that part of the forces of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District will be regrouped to the sector of advance of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District. Currently, part of the forces of the 8th Combined Arms Army, specifically the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, is exerting pressure from the front south of Kurakhove, attempting to collapse the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense along the Sukhyi Yaly River, advancing in the direction of Dalnie – Zelenivka. It is assumed that the main forces of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army constitute the operational reserve in this sector. The 36th, 57th, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, advancing from the south towards Sukhyi Yaly and Yantarne, might simultaneously, together with the actions of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies, once again attempt to break through in the direction of Zelenivka – Ulakly and further towards Konstyantynopil.
On the Vremivka direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense zone in the area of Velyka Novosilka – Vremivka – Neskuchne from the west, expand its section of control over the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road between Novosilka and Vremivka, and actively broaden the penetration toward Neskuchne and Novosilka. It is most likely that the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (part of the brigade's units have been spotted in Kursk Oblast near the village of Pogrebki) will be introduced into the operation in this area.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 12.01.25
Personnel - almost 808,250 (+1,750);
Tanks 9,756 (+5);
Armored combat vehicles – 20.289 (+18);
Artillery systems – 21,839 (+22);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,260 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,042 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,598 (+64);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 22,021 (+63);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,018 (1)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Over the past week, Russia deployed nearly 700 aerial bombs and more than 600 attack drones against Ukraine, according to President Zelenskyy.
On the night of January 12, 2025, the enemy launched an attack on Ukraine using 94 attack drones, of which 60 were shot down and the remaining 34 were “lost in location.” The debris from downed enemy drones damaged several homes in Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Poltava Oblast. There were no civilian casualties or injuries reported.
Around 9 a.m., the occupiers dropped explosives from a drone on residents of Kherson, injuring two people. A wounded woman was hospitalized. In total, eight people were injured that day in Kherson Oblast due to drone-dropped explosives.
On January 12, 2025, at approximately 3:15 p.m., the enemy attacked a passenger bus in the Myropil community of Sumy District using a drone. Two female passengers sustained injuries.
On January 12, an FPV drone strike by Russian forces in Solonchaky, part of the Kutsurubska community, injured a 71-year-old man. He was hospitalized and is in stable condition.
In Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, Russian military personnel have been disguising themselves in civilian clothing to mislead Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Over the past day, Russian forces launched 49 strikes on border areas in Chernihiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and Sumy Oblast, resulting in a total of 156 explosions.
Russian forces attacked 47 settlements in Kherson Oblast the previous day, resulting in one death and two injuries.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces carried out 334 strikes across 11 settlements during the past day.
Volunteers evacuated 24 people, including 4 children and 10 individuals with limited mobility, from the Semenivka community in the border area of Chernihiv Oblast on Saturday. All evacuees were relocated within Chernihiv Oblast.
From the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast, 132 individuals, including 12 children, were evacuated.
Units of the State Special Transport Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine inspected and cleared 2,767.18 hectares of land over the past week, removing and neutralizing 1,557 explosive devices.
Investigative journalists from “Suspilne,” Ukraine's public broadcaster, identified 22 young men from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Crimea who were conscripted into the Russian military. On November 16, 2024, according to statements by Russian occupation authorities, conscripts from the so-called “new territories,” meaning the areas of Ukraine occupied in 2022, began serving in the Russian armed forces.
During operations by Ukraine’s Defense Forces in the Sudzha District of Kursk Oblast in Russia, 36 civilians were killed by Russian shelling, according to Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, the press officer of the temporary military commandant's office on Russian territory.