Russia's war on Ukraine. 11.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued assault actions, with 5 combat engagements occurring near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 14 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Lozova, Kolisnykivka, and Stepova Novoselivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 enemy assaults in the areas of Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Ploshchanka, Nevske, Makiivka, Novosadove, Torske, and the Serebriansk Forest. On the Siversk direction, 4 attacks were repelled near Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 7 enemy attempts to break through the defense in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, with air support, the enemy launched 8 attacks, focusing efforts near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 attacks, with the enemy concentrating efforts near Selydove, Krutyi Yar, Promin, Lysivka, Myrolyubivka, and Kalynove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy near Novoselydivka, Kreminna Balka, Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and Antonivka. In total, the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 24 times. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers launched 11 attacks toward Bohoyavlenka, while on the Orikhiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne twice.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, no loss of positions or territory was recorded. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 5 attacks by Russian invaders.
No signs of the enemy forming offensive groups were detected on the Volyn and Polissya directions. The operational situation remains without significant changes.
On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, actively using aviation from Russian territory and shelling border settlements.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces' operation in Kursk Oblast is ongoing.
General conclusion:
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the heights to the north and south of Verkhnyokamianske, preventing Russian forces from capturing the village.
The enemy has shifted its main attack direction from the Pokrovsk area to the Kurakhove area. The pace of enemy advancement on both directions has noticeably slowed. This is due not so much to the condition of the Russian forces, who have apparently exhausted their combat potential, but rather to the combat readiness of Ukrainian Defense Forces, specifically their ability to successfully defend assigned lines and positions despite the enemy's numerical and firepower superiority.
On this direction, the enemy managed to achieve two tactically important results: the 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army crossed the natural barrier at the Zhuravka and Kazenyi Torets rivers, creating a foothold for further advancement toward the southern outskirts of Myrnohrad through the villages of Promin and Moskovske. Meanwhile, the forward units of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army took positions in the area of Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Zhelanne Pershe, and Tsukuryne, significantly complicating the situation for the “Tavriya” OSG forces, which are defending the Selydove defense area and continue to hold a bridgehead east of the Vovcha River, between Zhelanne Druhe and Zoryane, as well as near Oleksandropil.
Numerous attempts by forward units of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division to enter and secure Selydove from both Mykhailivka and Tsukuryne failed. An attempt to encircle Selydove from the north via Marynivka also failed, with the enemy halted near the “Parallel” gas station on the E50 Pokrovsk-Donetsk road, north of the city. An attempt to break into the city from the south along the Tsukuryne-Selydove road near the Central City Hospital was thwarted by “Tavriya” OSG artillery fire, forcing the enemy to retreat to initial positions in Tsukuryne.
The enemy has been unable to completely pin down “Tavriya” OSG units against the Vovcha River, which continue to hold a small bridgehead east of the river between Zhelanne Druhe and Zoryane. Units of the 90th Tank Division, 5th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army have been unable to break through south of the line Voznesenka-Zhelanne Druhe, despite continuous attacks.
The 20th Motorized Rifle Division is attacking near Uspenivka, advancing toward the Kostyantynivka-Katerynivka line, while the 150th Motorized Rifle Division attempts a frontal assault on Kurakhove from the east via Maksymilianivka, signaling the overall intent of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping forces to break through to Kurakhove with their main forces.
The greatest threat to “Tavriya” OSG on both the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions is a tactical breakthrough of up to 5 km between Hirnyk and Selydove in the Tsukuryne area, toward Ukrainsk-Tsukuryne.
The slowdown in enemy advancement is due to two main factors: 1) the regrouping of the main forces of the 41st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction to the Pokrovsk direction to strengthen the combat formations of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and restore the offensive potential, especially of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the redeployment of part of the 51st Combined Arms Army to the Toretsk direction, supplementing its already deployed 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade; and 2) the need to complete the shaping operation on the left flank of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping toward Kurakhove and Selydove, which is preventing the resumption of the offensive on Pokrovsk.
Aligning the front line allows the Russian forces to expand the area for increasing the intensity of attacks on Pokrovsk after gaining control of the area southwest of the city.
In the next 3-7 days, Russian forces may intensify attacks near Robotyne and Pryiutne with small infantry groups of 5-10 men, as they build up forces near these settlements.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 169 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, the “Siversk” OTG forces continued their offensive near Liubimovka, Kamyshovka, and the area around Cherkasskya Konopelka.
Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Obukhovka and are engaged in battles for Pokrovskoe and Novaya Sorochina. The 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced toward Zelionyi Put.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Vovchansk and Tykhe. They are attempting to resupply ammunition at frontline positions near Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced along Luhova Street in the north of Petropavlivka and southwest of Kotlyarivka, southwest of Kyslivka, and up to 2 km east of Terny. They continued offensives near Synkivka, toward Kucherivka, and near Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Vyshneve, Novoosynove, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, and Andriivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Katerynivka, Toretsk, and the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces are unable to gain control of Verkhnyokamianske but have captured half of Serebrianka and attacked near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka. They temporarily advanced east of Hryhorivka and on the western outskirts of Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances southwest of Hryhorivka and continued attacks in the "Kanal" neighborhood, near Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained some positions within and south of Toretsk, advanced north of Nelipivka, and recaptured a building in central Toretsk. Russian forces took control of a building at the "Central" mine in the center of Toretsk and continued attacks near Dyliivka, Druzhba, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka, and Leonidivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Selydove and along the railway line south of Selydove, in the western part of Tsukuryne. They attacked near Sukha Balka, Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Krutyi Yar, Promin, Lysivka, Sukha Yar, Kalynove, Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, and Tsukuryne.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces seek to improve their tactical position on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient and straighten the front line south of Pokrovsk. They continued attacks near Hostre, Heorhiivka, and Kurakhivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Vodyane, near Zolota Nyva and Bohoyavlenka, and attacked near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, and Maksymilianivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Zolota Nyva.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka but did not advance. They achieved tactical success on the outskirts of Kamianske, where heavy fighting continues.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued their offensive but failed.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat operations on the Siversk direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
In the near future, the command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping, along with the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, will attempt another breakthrough in the Zoryane and Kurakhivka areas from the north. This breakthrough will be supported from the south by the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, which will attack in the directions of Hostre–Oleksandropil and Hostre–Ostrivske, attempting to advance through Maksymilianivka towards Kurakhove.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.10.24
Personnel - almost 666,340 (+1,140);
Tanks 8,953 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,800 (+35);
Artillery systems – 19,322 (+59);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,229 (+4);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 976 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,398 (+84);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,837 (+70);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,619 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In September, at least 208 civilians were killed and 1,220 were injured in Ukraine, making it the deadliest month for civilians in 2024, according to the UN.
On the night of October 11, Russian forces launched two missiles and 66 attack drones at Ukraine. Ukrainian defense forces managed to shoot down 29, while 31 drones were " lost" due to EW.
Russian forces attacked the Odesa Oblast overnight with ballistic missiles, destroying a two-story building. Rescuers saved four people, but three others—a 43-year-old woman, a 22-year-old man, and a 16-year-old girl—died under the rubble. Another woman later died in the hospital from her injuries.
Around 14:00, Russian forces attacked Antonivka, in the suburbs of Kherson, using a drone. A 51-year-old man was injured and is currently hospitalized with a concussion, blast injuries, and a closed head injury. He was in his yard during the attack.
On October 11, 2024, Russian forces struck several settlements in the Bakhmut, Volnovakha, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk districts, killing one person and injuring six others.
During the day on October 11, Russian forces launched an airstrike on a residential area in the city of Kupiansk, setting fire to two private houses and two farm buildings over an area of 240 square meters. One person died, and five others were injured.
On October 11, the Russian army used an FPV drone to attack a civilian vehicle in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. A 38-year-old man was killed, and his 56-year-old sister was injured.
As of August 31, almost 4.2 million people who fled Ukraine due to Russia's full-scale invasion held temporary protection status in EU countries.