Russia's war on Ukraine. 11.02.2024
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks near Terny, southeast of Vyimka and Rozdolivka. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 14 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy, who persists in attempting to encircle Avdiivka. During the past day, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks in the area of Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Severne, Tonenke and Nevelske. On the Maryinka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continued holding back the enemy near of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, repelling 35 enemy attacks. On the Shakhtarsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Vodyane. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, they repelled two enemy attacks west of Verbove and Robotyne.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold positions and repel assaults by occupation forces. Despite significant losses, the adversary persists in attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 2 unsuccessful assault attempts.
General conclusion:
The adversary consistently seeks to overload Ukraine's air defense system, regularly launching missile strikes and widely employing strike UAVs, integrating weaponry from Iran and North Korea. The goal is to force the expenditure of anti-aircraft guided missiles and divert the air defense forces and assets from the front line to cover rear targets.
The enemy's aviation has increased the number of sorties per day to support offensive actions in the east of Ukraine, particularly near Avdiivka. This situation is a consequence of the shortage of anti-aircraft guided missiles in the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which, in turn, provides the Russian Aerospace Forces with broader opportunities for their combat operations.
The Russian Armed Forces routinely engage in the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, a practice that extends across various front sectors. This blatant violation of Article 41 of the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Victims in International Armed Conflicts is consistently perpetrated by Russian units, irrespective of their military affiliation.
Recently, the enemy has reduced the intensity of fire from concealed firing positions on the Kupyansk direction, probably due to adverse weather conditions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 98 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has not been pushed out of Synkivka, and battles continue on the outskirts of the village. Positional battles persisted near Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Krokhmalne.
On the Lyman direction, a series of counterattacks by the ”Khortytsia” OSG forces are ongoing in the Serebryansk forestry; the situation is challenging.
Russian forces have advanced to the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka. Positional battles persisted near Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, Dibrova, and Hryhorivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, units of the Russian 98th Airborne Division have advanced into the forested area south of Bohdanivka. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Vyimka, Rozdolivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and Shumy.
On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy advanced into the "Ivushka" gardening community southeast of Avdiivka Coking Plant, taking control of its part and crossing the railway in some places; the situation is very challenging. Russian forces are positioned approximately 700 meters from the main logistic route of the Ukrainian garrison along Hrushevsky Street in Avdiivka.
The enemy progressed along Chernyshevsky, Sportyvna, and Soborna streets in the southern part of Avdiivka, along Sapronov and Lesia Ukrainka streets, and towards Hrushevsky Street in the northern part of the city. They launched attacks from the area of the "Tsarska Okhota" restaurant and near the sand quarry.
Positional battles persisted near Keramik, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Ocheretyne, near Avdiivka Coking Plant, Severne, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
On the Shakhtarsk direction, Russian forces advanced into eastern Heorhiivka. The "Tavria" OSG forces repelled the previously lost positions on the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka.
Positional battles persisted near Heorhiivka, Pobeda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane.
On the Berdyansk direction, positional battles took place south of Zolota Nyva, near Urozhaine, Staromayorske, southwest of Rivnopole, and north of Pryiutne.
On the Tokmak direction, positional battles continued in the areas of Robotyne, west of Verbove and Novopokrovka. The forces of the "Tavria" OSG advanced from Kamianske and achieved success near Kopani and Robotyne.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
Black Sea: 4 ships.
Azov Sea: 1 ship.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier. The total “Kalibr” missile salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Change in enemy disposition:
In the vicinity of Heorhiivka, the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat.
The forces of the 5th Army of the Russian Eastern Military District, including the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, operate south of Velyka Novosilka in the areas of Staromayorske and Orlynske.
Escalation indicators:
The enemy is close to the encirclement of Avdiivka and is stepping up its efforts in the area.
Possible operation situation developments:
The Russian Federation plans to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and part of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River by March 2024. Over the next 36 months, Russia intends to capture parts of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
The breach in the defense of the "Tavria" OSG and the subsequent advance of the enemy's forward units from the eastern and southeastern sectors of the Avdiivka Coking Plant territory, reaching the line of the "Brevno" restaurant - Avdiivka vehicle station - "Ivushka" gardening community - western edge of the sand quarry, would mark the end of organized and cohesive defense of Avdiivka.
In the area of Novomykhailivka, the enemy will initially attempt to split the combat formations of the "Tavriya" OSG in the northern part of the Vuhledar bulge, in the general direction of Novomykhailivka - Paraskoviivka - Kostiantynivka. Subsequently, they will attack south of Vodyane thus compelling the "Tavriya" OSG to withdraw from its positions near Volodymyrivka and north of Mykilske.
The adversary will reinforce its grouping in the northern and central parts of the Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, particularly in the Novomykhailivka area with the 103rd and 163rd Tank Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army or the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.02.24
Personnel - almost 395,200 people (+930);
Tanks - 6,406 (+12);
Armored combat vehicles – 11,956 (+14);
Artillery systems – 9,475 (+16);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 981 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 666 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 12,592 (+13);
Aircraft - 332 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 7,257 (+22);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 1,881 (0);
Boats/ships – 25 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 138 towns and villages and 142 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. 2 civilians were reported dead and 5 injured in different regions of Ukraine. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
During the night of February 11, Russian forces launched an attack using 45 “Shahed” strike UAVs from the areas of Balaklava and Cape Chauda in Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Defense downed 40 Shahed drones.
Over the course of more than 23 months of full-scale war in Ukraine, 1,523 medical facilities have been damaged, with an additional 195 completely destroyed.
According to a CNN publication based on conversations with mercenaries who returned from the frontlines, as well as with relatives of individuals recruited into the Russian army, approximately 15,000 citizens of Nepal are fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, with Russia promising them a salary of at least $2,000 per month. The government of Nepal claims that around 200 of its citizens are fighting on the side of the Russian army, and at least 13 Nepalese have been killed. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Nepal, four Nepalese fighters are currently being held in Ukraine as prisoners of war.