Russia's war on Ukraine. 10.12.24
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade, the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 810th Separate Marines Brigade, the Armenian volunteer battalion "ArBat" of the "Pyatnashka" Brigade, and the "Kursk Vytyazi" volunteer detachment are engaged in battles for Plekhovo. Russian forces are attempting to advance in the area of Novoivanovka and have attacked toward the border with Sumy Oblast in the areas of Guevo and Hornal, near Kurylivka.
Units of the “Siversk” OTG repelled an enemy assault north of Daryino and conducted a raid near Staroselie in the Belgorod Oblast of Russia.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk but did not make any advances.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Dvorichna, but the enemy is attempting to maintain a foothold on the western bank of the Oskil River near the village. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Novoyehorivka and from Zelenyi Hai toward Borova, aiming to cut Ukrainian logistics in the area and establish a foothold for a future offensive on Borova. The enemy attacked in the direction of Bohuslavka and Pishchane, near Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Nadiya, and Druzhelyubivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Terny.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance along Haharina Street in Chasiv Yar and Parkova Street in the city center. They attacked in the "Pivnichnyi" and "Novyi" neighborhoods, near the refractory materials plant, in the Orlovo forestry, near Kalynivka, and in the areas of Stupochky and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces are trying to advance on the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk, near the "Tsentralna" mine. They pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western part of the “Zabalka” neighborhood and attacked in Toretsk, as well as near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, and Leonidivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions near the "Avangard" stadium in the center of Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced to an agricultural complex south of Novotroitske, into the eastern half of Dachenske and south of the village, south of Zelene, along the railway east of Shevchenkove, and in the fields west of the village. They also moved southwest of Pushkyne and south of Novotroitske. The enemy attacked in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, and Zhovte.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Novotroitske and destroyed a bridge over the Solona River near the village.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in Kurakhove, reached the northeastern outskirts of Dachne, and moved north of Uspenivka, northwest of Hannivka. They attacked near Kurakhove, Maksymilianivka, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zorya, Dachne, Dalnie, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Konstyantynopolske, and Sukhyi Yaly. Russian forces are building up reserves west of the Kurakhove Reservoir dam near Stari Terny. Intense fighting continues for Veselyi Hai.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Rivnopil and attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, Blahodatne, Storozhove, and Novodarivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the area of Nesteryanka.
General conclusion:
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces are attempting to take advantage of poor weather conditions to conduct assaults. However, remote mining and UAV attacks by Ukrainian Defense Forces are significantly hindering the enemy's actions. The enemy is trying to establish a foothold after capturing Pershotravneve and Vyshneve and plans to launch further attacks in this area once the ground freezes. The enemy is making efforts to push Ukrainian Defense Forces back beyond the Oskil River, searching for and attacking gaps between Ukrainian units and rear positions under the cover of morning fog. The loss ratio on this direction is estimated at 1 to 7.
The occupiers are attempting to envelop Toretsk, but currently, there is no threat of them achieving this goal.
Russian forces are trying to advance south of Velyka Novosilka and have reduced the intensity of assaults near Novyi Komar. They are attempting to find weak points in the defense of the "Khortytsia" OSG units and attack them with small infantry groups.
The EW capabilities of Ukrainian Defense Forces effectively counter enemy Shahed drones, but air defense capabilities remain limited. From September to November 2024, the enemy used over 6,000 UAVs and missiles in airstrikes on Ukraine. This is three times the number used from June to August 2024 and four times the number used from September to November 2023.
The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces are trying to exhaust Ukraine's air defense system, which intercepted only 8% of missiles in October, though it successfully intercepted 93% of UAVs. Over the past three months, UAVs have accounted for 92% of enemy airstrikes.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 175 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 6 offensive operations in the areas of Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
The number of combat engagements on the Kupyansk direction reached 7. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Lozova and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 14 enemy attacks. The invaders concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Hrekivka, Zelenyi Hai, Nadiia, Makiivka, Torske, and Yampolivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 2 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 8 times in the areas of Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 51 enemy attacks. The most intense enemy activity was observed near Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Promin, Dachenske, Chumatske, and Shevchenko.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy on the Kurakhove direction. In the areas of Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zoria, Dalnie, Dachne, and Kurakhove, the invaders made 40 attempts to break through Ukrainian defensive lines.
On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 27 enemy attacks on the direction of Konstyantynopil, Novosilka, and near Sukhyi Yaly, Storozhove, Neskuchne, and Blahodatne.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy made 7 unsuccessful attempts to capture Ukrainian positions over the past day.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 41 cruise missiles.
Uncrewed "Sea Baby" boats of the Defense Forces struck a Russian barge carrying equipment for repairing the Kerch Streit Bridge. They also engaged enemy helicopters, aircraft, and Raptor-class patrol boats with onboard weapons (M2 machine guns) as they attempted to repel the attack.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is engaged in combat operations in the area of Daryino. The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment is advancing along the Naidenovo–Nechayevo line.
The 16th Separate SOF Brigade conducts combat operations near Novovodyane.
The 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 2nd Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army are active on the Siversk direction. The "Nevsky" Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade is engaged in combat near Vasyukivka.
The Russian military command plans to transfer additional reserves to the Pokrovsk direction. The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, along with the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, are advancing along the Novotroitske–Shevchenko–Novyi Trud–Dachenske line. Part of the forces of the 90th Tank Division are advancing near Pushkyne. The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army is advancing northwest of Selydove.
On the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division and the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army are active. The North Ossetian "Alania" Battalion is engaged in combat operations near Kamianske.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the "Khortytsia" OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the "Khortytsia" OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will attempt to advance to the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line, which would achieve two operational objectives: bypassing the flank of Ukrainian Defense Forces units holding Zorya and Sontsivka and simultaneously creating favorable conditions for enveloping Pokrovsk from the south.
If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time. In the southern part of the Kurakhove bridgehead, Ukrainian Defense Forces units will soon have to abandon Hannivka and Uspenivka to avoid encirclement and retreat in a northwesterly direction.
On the Vremivka direction, intense battles for Velyka Novosilka are expected to unfold soon, as the enemy's future ability to organize and carry out a further offensive toward Rozlyv and Bahatyr, as well as to conduct a deep flanking maneuver against the Ukrainian Defense Forces' grouping from the south, depends on it. By controlling Rozdolne (located between Velyka Novosilka and the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway) and having a convenient stronghold for concentrating and deploying additional forces and assets, the enemy command will soon attempt to cut off all "Khortytsia" OSG’s communication lines in Velyka Novosilka. The enemy will once again attempt to break through towards Novyi Komar or in the direction of Dniproenerhiya.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.12.24
Personnel - almost 755,940 (+1,350);
Tanks 9,524 (+5);
Armored combat vehicles – 19,596 (+7);
Artillery systems – 21,064 (+3);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,253 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1.023 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,037 (+48);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 20,107 (+48);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,859 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In November alone, more than 1,500 drone attacks on civilians were recorded on the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. As a result, 91 people were injured, and 5 were killed.
On the morning of December 10, Russian forces twice launched missile attacks on the city of Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast, striking near a bank, damaging an administrative building, and injuring 10 people. Other non-residential buildings and civilian vehicles were also damaged.
As a result of a Russian strike on a private clinic in Zaporizhzhia on the afternoon of December 10, three people were killed, one person previously believed dead was resuscitated, and 16 more were taken to hospitals. People remain trapped under the rubble of the building.
A drone struck and seriously damaged an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) service vehicle on the road to the Russian-occupied Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, according to an IAEA press release.
In the settlements of Kindiyka and Antonivka, in the suburbs of Kherson, four men were injured as a result of the enemy dropping explosives from drones.
Five more Ukrainian children have returned from Russia and temporarily occupied territories to the territory controlled by Ukraine. Among those returned are three young Ukrainians who have just reached adulthood. Two of them spent a long time in Russia, where they were subjected to psychological pressure, while the third, a young man deprived of family support lived in the occupied territory.
The majority of Ukrainians consider the best security guarantees for Ukraine to be the development of the state's own nuclear weapons (31.3%) and gradual accession to NATO (29.3%). Confidence in the effectiveness of a defense alliance with the United States is held by 11.2% of Ukrainians, 8.9% are ready to rely on UN peacekeepers, and only 6.4% believe in the effectiveness of European military forces on Ukrainian territory. These are the findings of a survey commissioned by the "New Europe" Center.
70.3% of respondents said they support the idea of Ukraine's gradual accession to NATO — where the Alliance would invite Ukraine to join within its internationally recognized borders, but Article 5 guarantees would not initially apply to territories occupied by Russia.
In Chernihiv Oblast, nearly 2,500 customers remain without electricity due to damage caused by Russian missile attacks.
On Wednesday, December 11, power outage schedules for the population and businesses will be in effect from 07:00 to 22:00, according to a press release from "Ukrenergo."