Russia's war on Ukraine. 11.11.24
Russia's war on Ukraine. 11.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 6 assaults in the areas of Starytsia and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 3 attacks by the occupiers. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, and Zelenyi Hai. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 6 attacks, attempting to advance near Hrekivka, Terny, Torske, and Serebrianka. Ukrainian Defense Forces held off enemy pressure on the Siversk direction, where an enemy attack was repelled in the vicinity of Verkhnyokamianske. Three combat engagements were recorded on the Kramatorsk direction in the areas of Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 16 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 35 assault and offensive actions by the aggressor in the areas of Myroliubivka, Promin, Hryhorivka, Selydove, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, and Petrivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 48 attacks near Illinka, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Sontsivka, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, Dalnie, and Katerynivka. The occupiers made their most intense attempts to advance near Antonivka and Illinka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 13 assaults in the areas of Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, Uspenivka, and Makarivka, actively deploying assault and bomber aviation for strikes. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked twice in the direction of Novoandriivka and Mala Tokmachka, faced a strong response, and suffered losses.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders attempted 7 assaults on Ukrainian positions, but these actions did not yield success for them.
General conclusion:
Russian forces are aiming to reach the Vovcha River but have nearly ceased the use of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) due to logistical support issues and challenges in delivering rockets amid deteriorating weather conditions.
Russian military command is amassing forces on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk directions, where they possess sufficient reserves and equipment. The units operating in these areas are staffed with contract soldiers.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy’s push towards Leonidivka has not yet resulted in the capture of the village or even reaching its outskirts. Attacks on Oleksandropil and to the west of New York have essentially halted due to the critical decline in combat effectiveness among some units of the 3rd Army. This decline is due to deteriorating command control, caused by both officer casualties and communication issues, especially affecting units fighting in Toretsk and near Leonidivka.
In the Siversk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy's forces are advancing on adjacent flanks.
On the Kurakhove direction, the main enemy advance continues to focus on western, southwestern, and northwestern directions from Selydove and along the Kurakhove Reservoir to reach its western edge, aiming to cut the Zaporizhzhia-Kurakhove highway.
Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Siversk salient area have natural cover from the north—the Siverskyi Donets River. Even if the enemy completely displaces them from the Serebriansk Forest area, captures Torske, and reaches the Lyman–Yampil line, this would in no way guarantee the elimination of the entire Siversk foothold held by the Defense Forces.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 160 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG advanced north of Novoivanovka, launching counterattacks in the areas of Novoivanovka, Daryino, Zelionyi Put, and Novaya Sorochina.
Russian forces advanced south and east of Pogrebki.
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on the 1060th logistical support center of the Russian Armed Forces in Bryansk Oblast, resulting in explosions and secondary detonations at the site.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsia, intensifying airstrikes with glide bombs across Kharkiv Oblast, specifically targeting civilian infrastructure in the city of Kharkiv.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their advance towards Kalynove, Holubivka, near Vyshneve, toward Kopanky from Pershotravneve, and conducted attacks near Kindrashivka, Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, and Zelenyi Hai.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, and Serebrianka. Advanced units of the enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army attempted to improve their tactical positions towards Terny and Yampolivka, in the Serebriansk Forest north of the Siverskyi Donets River, but failed despite introducing several units from the 164th and 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades into the operation. Advanced units from the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 106th Airborne Division conducted numerous assault operations in the directions of Mykolaivka–Ivano-Dariivka, Berestove–Vyimka, and Rozdolivka–Pereyizne, unsuccessfully trying to advance along the railway toward Zvanivka.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske. South of the Siverskyi Donets River, the 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by a tank battalion from the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, made numerous attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from Bilohorivka (upper). Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control over most of the village. The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, advancing on the directions of Zolotarivka–Verkhnyokamianske and Verkhnokamyanka–Verkhnokamianske, reached the border of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts north of the road to Verkhnokamianske, where it was stopped by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Toretsk, as well as around Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced south and southwest of Novooleksiivka, near Lysivka, Petrivka, Hryhorivka, Dachne, Yuryivka, and Pustynka, and launched attacks in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Selydove, Hryhorivka, and Petrivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced west of Pobieda and north of Illinka, capturing half of Sontsivka and Vovchenka, and launched offensives near Zoria, Novodmytrivka, Illinka, Berestky, Novoselydivka, and Dalnie. They conduct reconnaissance on the eastern outskirts of Kurakhove, where urban combat has begun, and maintain an extremely high intensity of artillery barrages.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive, advancing south from Maksymilianivka towards Trudove, east of Bohoyavlenka, and launched attacks around Antonivka, Katerynivka, Konstyantynopil, Uspenivka, Bohoyavlenka, Maksymivka, and Makarivka, but without success.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their advance near Mala Tokmachka and towards Novoandriivka, concentrating in the areas of Kamianske, Huliaypole, and near Robotyne, preparing for assaults in these areas.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
The enemy is attempting to strengthen the air defense zone around the Kerch Strait Bridge by deploying additional air defense systems and protective structures near it.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army is engaged in combat near Kruhlyakivka.
The 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps deploys drones with fiber-optic cables on the Kostyantynivka-Kramatorsk direction.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army is advancing near Shakhtarske.
The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army is active on the Vremivka direction.
The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army is deployed on the Polohy direction, while the 7th Air Assault Division is active in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The main forces of the 3rd Army (including the 6th, 85th, 88th, 123rd, and 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades) are engaged in combat on the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions, from the area of Orikhovo-Vasylivka to Spirne. This grouping is reinforced by elements of the 106th Airborne Division (including the 51st, 137th, and 119th Airborne Regiments, and the 1182nd Artillery Regiment). The rest of the division is active in Kursk Oblast. The total force in this direction includes up to 26,500 personnel, 160 tanks, 340 armored fighting vehicles, 224 artillery guns and mortars, and 70 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). In reserve, there is one airborne regiment (still being formed), one reserve motorized rifle regiment, and two reserve battalions, currently concentrated in Rostov Oblast. The reserves consist of approximately 3,000 personnel, 36 armored fighting vehicles, and 20 artillery guns and mortars.
In the northern part of the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy grouping includes up to 17,000 personnel, 130 tanks, 245 armored fighting vehicles, 150 artillery guns and mortars, and 48 MLRS.
The main forces of the 25th Army (including the 67th Motorized Rifle Division with the 31st, 36th, and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments and the 19th Tank Regiment; the 164th and 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades; and the 11th Separate Tank Brigade) are engaged in combat on the Lyman direction. This grouping includes up to 35,000 personnel, 540 tanks, 980 armored fighting vehicles, 330 artillery guns and mortars, 114 MLRS, and 4-6 operational-tactical missile launchers. To support this group, both strike and army aviation are operational, with an average of 4-6 sorties per day. The 11th Separate Tank Brigade of the 25th Army is stationed in reserve without its motorized rifle battalion and tank battalion. Additionally, up to four reserve motorized rifle regiments, three of which are concentrated outside Ukraine, are available. The reserves amount to approximately 7,000 personnel, 60 tanks, 70 armored fighting vehicles, and 12 MLRS.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
Given the likelihood of Russian forces being redeployed from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to the Kursk or Pokrovsk directions, the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the enemy remain unclear.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.
The enemy is preparing for the final stage of the Kurakhove operation: forces and assets on the left flank of "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in coordination with the 8th Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt not only to envelope Kurakhove but also to break through to the area around Andriivka along both banks of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, forces of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping advancing from the south to the north will try to break through to Rozlyv and Konstyantynopil.
“Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line to avoid encirclement. A retreat from Kurakhove, which has already served its strategic purpose in this stage of the war, is to be expected. By December, the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position. By November 20, “Tavriya” OSG will pull back from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir.
After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.11.24
Personnel - almost 710,660 (+1,770);
Tanks 9,253 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,766 (+40);
Artillery systems – 20,314 (+34);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,802 (+119);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 18,676 (+57);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,636 (+2)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In the early hours of November 11, Russia launched 2 guided aviation missiles and 74 drones across Ukraine. As of 09:30, two guided missiles (Kh-59/69) and 39 enemy UAVs have been confirmed downed. Thirty enemy drones were lost regionally across Ukraine, while three others exited Ukrainian airspace towards Belarus and temporarily occupied territories.
At 1:30 a.m. on November 11, Russian forces launched three airstrikes on Zaporizhzhia, killing one person and injuring 21 others, including children. The explosions partially destroyed a two-story residential building and damaged a dormitory and car dealership.
In a nighttime drone attack in Mykolaiv, five people were killed, and one was injured. A private, one-story house was destroyed, and a fire broke out. Additionally, a fire damaged the third and fourth floors of a four-story building.
On November 11, Russian forces used ballistic missiles to strike Kryvyi Rih, President Zelensky's hometown, causing significant destruction in a residential building from the first to fifth floors. Fourteen people were injured, including two children, while a woman and her three children are reportedly trapped under the rubble.
A Russian drone struck a car parked in the yard of a private residence in the village of Prymorske, Vasylivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring two people. A medical facility, cafe, shops, and vehicles were also damaged.
In Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian artillery shelling killed two people, with two others in critical condition.
Russian military committed another war crime, executing two unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to Ukraine's Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets.
On the morning of November 11, preemptive emergency power outages were implemented in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts due to the threat of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. These outages were lifted after 1:00 p.m. Media also reported emergency power outages in Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
On Monday morning, the Air Force reported the launch of eight Tu-95MS bombers from Russia, which subsequently “launched missiles.” These launches were likely simulated, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation, as Russian forces have been accumulating missiles at airfields for potential mass strikes on Ukraine. Simulated launches also serve to keep Russian aviation in a state of operational readiness.
The so-called "Supreme Court" of the illegal military formation "DNR" sentenced eight servicemen from the 36th Separate Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 17 years in prison, accusing them of allegedly shelling Mariupol. Occupying authorities claim the defendants confessed during the investigation, and they will reportedly serve their sentences in a strict-regime penal colony.
In the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, at least two former Ukrainian servicemen took their own lives after being pressured by the occupying forces to sign a contract to serve in the Russian army. The men hadn’t managed to leave the area when the occupation started, spent some time in Russian custody and later were informed that they were prohibited from leaving the occupied territory. Their bodies were found when the occupiers arrived to forcibly conscript them, according to the Center for Journalist Investigations.