Russia's war on Ukraine. 10.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions twice near Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked 9 times. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the occupiers’ offensives in the areas of Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozove. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 15 enemy attacks. The invaders concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, and Bilohorivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled an attack near Verkhnyokamianske on the Siversk direction. Ukrainian soldiers stopped 2 Russian attempts to advance near Bila Hora and Stupochky on the Kramatorsk direction. With support from bombing aviation, the enemy attempted to advance nine times in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka on the Toretsk direction.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 attacks. The enemy displayed the highest activity near Promin, Lysivka, and Hryhorivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy on the Kurakhove direction. In the areas of Illinka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Katerynivka, and Antonivka, the occupiers attempted to break through Ukrainian defensive lines 40 times. Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Trudove, and Maksymivka on the Vremivka direction. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupying forces assaulted Ukrainian Defense Forces positions once in the direction of Novoandriivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy made 3 unsuccessful attempts to capture Ukrainian defenders' positions over the past day.
General conclusion:
The military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has decided to regain control over Sudzha in Kursk Oblast before the inauguration of the next U.S. president.
The main enemy attacks are focused on Daryino and Nikolaevo-Daryino in the west, Pogrebki in the north, and Plekhovo in the east, with additional strikes in the Kremiannoe area to push south. The enemy uses tanks and armored vehicles heavily to advance closer to Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions, achieving gains near Pogrebki. No reports indicate the involvement of DPRK military units.
In the Glushkovo district, the "Siversk" OTG withdrew into Ukraine, with the enemy reaching the border but not securing positions, instead maintaining a presence within a 5–7 km range to the north.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping, which advanced toward the Oskil River, has partially lost combat capability and is undergoing regrouping and replenishment.
The "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping continues to supply forces for Kursk Oblast, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vremivka directions. The enemy is not capable of a rapid, concentrated offensive aimed at capturing Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi within a month. This direction’s operational priority has been reduced.
A planned offensive on Borova on the Kupyansk direcyion remains uncertain, as there is discussion of redeploying 15,000–20,000 troops to the Kursk and Pokrovsk directions.
On the Lyman direction, enemy activity is observed only near Terny and Bilohorivka, where they are concentrating resources to capture Terny and advance south to Torske, amassing combat-ready units, equipment, artillery, and ammunition. For "Khortytsia" OSG, the situation here remains relatively stable, supported by well-prepared defenses northwest of Bilohorivka and east of Torske.
South of Chasiv Yar, enemy progress along roads toward Kostyantynivka has halted. They now focus on damaging Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions with airstrikes and artillery fire, having temporarily paused direct assaults. This shift does not imply prolonged stabilization, although it reveals the enemy’s resource constraints.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy’s attempted breakthrough toward Leonidivka has not resulted in the capture of the village or even its outskirts. Attacks on Oleksandropil and areas west of New York have largely ceased due to the critical depletion of specific 3rd Army units, diminished command efficiency (due to officer losses), and communication challenges. These issues are especially impacting units operating in Toretsk and near Leonidivka. Even if Russian forces were to capture Toretsk the initial objective of advancing southward to Kostyantynivka, according to Russian military officials on the ground, is unrealistic. This will require significant reinforcements that are currently unavailable.
Progress toward Kurakhove remains slow, as Russian forces struggle to advance without air and artillery support.
On the Kurakhove direction, "Tavriya" OSG lacks strong defensive positions on its current line, allowing the enemy to advance relatively quickly.
Enemy "Tsentr (Center)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings compete to capture the greatest number of villages and to be the first to reach Konstyantynopil.
On the Kurakhove directio, the enemy’s main attack axis remain to the west, southwest, and northwest of Selydove and along the Kurakhove Reservoir, aiming to reach its western edge and sever the Zaporizhzhia-Kurakhove highway.
Russian forces have intensified attacks with guided bombs and rockets on the Orikhiv direction, hitting Mala Tokmachka with over 100 munitions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 158 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian troops advanced in the area of Staraya Sorochina, attempting to retake Pogrebki and Orlovka, and repelled "Siversk" OTG attacks near Novyi Put. Fighting continued in the areas of Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, Zelenyi Put, Nova Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, Martynovka, and Plekhovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the area of Lyptsi and Vovchansk, but no confirmed changes on the front line occurred. Small infantry groups, with support from aviation and artillery, attacked Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced southwest of Stelmakhivka, continuing their attacks in the areas of Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kindrashivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Lozove, and Berestove.
The enemy is making efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced slightly in the northeastern part of Terny, attacking near Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, and Hryhorivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions eastward in the Serebriansk Forest area.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over the lost positions in northern Bilohorivka. Russian forces attempted to advance near Ivano-Dariivka, attacked in the area of Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the area of Chasiv Yar, near Bondarne and Bila Hora, and tried to advance near Hryhorivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, Druzhba, Shcherbynivka, Petrivka, and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian forces regained control of lost positions north of Novohrodivka, where they regularly counterattack.
Russian forces advanced along the E50 Donetsk–Pokrovsk highway north of Selydove, along the railroad south of Hryhorivka and to the eastern outskirts of Petrivka. They launched an offensive in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Kruty Yar, Selydove, Vyshneve, Petrivka, and Chumatske.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced to the center of Sontsivka, south of Novodmytrivka, to the eastern outskirts of Zoria, near Voznesenka, southwest of Maksymilianivka, northwest of Kostyantynivka, fought for Voznesenka, and advanced to the Solona River in Sontsivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed the enemy to the outskirts of the village.
The invaders conducted an offensive in the areas of Illinka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Berestky, Voznesenka, Maksymilianivka, and Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced east of Maksymivka, east of Bohoyavlenka, conducted offensive operations near Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Maksymivka, Bohoyavlenka, Shakhtarske, Yasna Polyana, Trudove, in the direction of Konstyantynopil and Sukhi Yaly.
On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the area of Novoandriivka, but the front line did not change. Russian forces advanced near Nesteryanka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
On the Kursk direction, the enemy has regrouped, replenishing forward units of the 155th and 810th Separate Marines Brigades, airborne forces, and motorized rifle brigades, and has initiated the third phase of liberating Kursk Oblast.
The 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army is engaged in combat operations on the Lyman direction.
Units of the " Dostavalov Volunteer Battalion" are active near Katerynivka, while the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army operates near Trudove. Units of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army are positioned near Uspenivka, with the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet near Shakhtarske and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps near Yelyzavetivka.
The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
Given the likelihood of Russian forces being redeployed from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to the Kursk or Pokrovsk directions, the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the enemy remain unclear.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.
The enemy is preparing for the final stage of the Kurakhove operation: forces and assets on the left flank of "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in coordination with the 8th Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt not only to envelope Kurakhove but also to break through to the area around Andriivka along both banks of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, forces of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping advancing from the south to the north will try to break through to Rozlyv and Konstyantynopil.
“Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line to avoid encirclement. A retreat from Kurakhove, which has already served its strategic purpose in this stage of the war, is to be expected. By December, the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position. By November 20, “Tavriya” OSG will pull back from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir.
After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.11.24
Personnel - almost 708,890 (+1,350);
Tanks 9,249 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,726 (+29);
Artillery systems – 20,280 (+31);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,683 (+122);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 18,619 (+44);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,634 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
According to President Zelensky, this week, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with over 800 guided aerial bombs, around 600 strike drones, and nearly 20 missiles of various types.
Overnight on Sunday, Russia launched a record number of drones at Ukraine—145 in total. Air defense destroyed 62 enemy UAVs, 67 drones were lost from radar, and 10 entered the territory of Moldova, Belarus, and Russia.
Due to a drone attack in Odesa, two people were injured, and there was damage to a market, a gas station, stores, and residential buildings.
Defense forces intercepted nearly 15 enemy UAVs that threatened Kyiv. The capital reported no damage or casualties.
Last night, Russian forces attacked the Chuhuiv community in Kharkiv Oblast with a "Shahed" strike drone, injuring 5 people.
On November 10, 2024, around 15:20, the occupiers shelled civilian infrastructure in the Sveska community of Shostka district in Sumy Oblast from Russian territory. A 52-year-old man was killed, and a 58-year-old woman was critically injured.
During the day on November 10, Russian forces attacked a resident of Zmiivka in Kherson Oblast with a drone, injuring a 62-year-old man when explosives were dropped from the UAV. The injured man was taken to the hospital.
During routine reconnaissance, agents from the partisan movement "Atesh" discovered that Russian forces train mercenaries from African countries and Cuba at the "Kazachiy" training ground in Sevastopol’s Gagarinsky district. The training ground belongs to the 810th Separate Marines Brigade. Military trucks, transporting individuals who do not resemble local residents, are periodically observed arriving at the site.
In October, Ukrainian farmers received over 24,000 hectares of land cleared of mines and explosives. Since the beginning of the year, state services and operators have surveyed over 289,000 hectares, of which more than 255,000 hectares have already been handed over for use.