Russia's war on Ukraine. 10.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces captured Leonidovo and Alexandria, advanced northwest of Nikolskiy and west of Viktorovka, entered Pogrebki, made minor progress in Makhnovka, and attacked near Sudzha, Staraya Sorochina, Russkoe Porechie, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Bondarevka, Makhnovka, Guevo, and Kurilovka.
The "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) advanced in the western part of Mykolaivka and counterattacked near Pogrebki, Novaya Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, and Nikolaevka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces conducted local but unsuccessful attacks near Starytsia and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Zapadne, Holubivka, and Petropavlivka, using poor weather conditions to advance west and northwest of Makiivka. They stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, Borysivka, Andriivka, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces approached a tactical height near Kolodyazi and attacked it, advancing in the area of Ivanivka and Terny.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka, tried to advance south of Verkhnokamianske, and aimed to capture tactical heights south and west of the village.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in Verkhnokamianske and attempt counterattacks from Serebrianka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance northwest and southeast in forested areas near Chasiv Yar, along highway T0504 Bakhmut–Kostyantynivka northeast of Stupochky, and attacked near Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka, almost completely pushing Defense Forces to the outskirts of Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Yasenove, southeast of Kotlyne, near Vovkove, on the outskirts of Zvirove, south of Baranivka and within the village, near Vozdvyzhenka, within Novoelyzavetivka, attacked near Pokrovsk, Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Promin, Lysivka, Zelenyi, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Nadiivka, Solone, Novoelyzavetivka, Kotlyne, and are trying to bypass the center of Pishchane from the north.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the western outskirts of Novovasylivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced near Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, and south of Kurakhove, attacked near Sribne, Shevchenkove, Petropavlivka, toward Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, near Dachne, Konstyantynopolske, and Yantarne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Petropavlivka and along the C051122 Yantarne–Dachne highway, holding positions near Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, west of Kurakhove.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance northeast of Novyi Komar, toward Novosilka, northeast of Rivnopil, west and northwest of Neskuchne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Mala Tokmachka.
General conclusion:
In the area of Chasiv Yar, the enemy is attempting to maneuver small groups into the rear of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
One of the enemy’s primary objectives on the Pokrovsk direction is to advance toward Udachne, with the enemy currently positioned 4 km from the settlement. The enemy lacks sufficient forces and means for a frontal assault on Pokrovsk and is attempting to bypass the city.
The Russian military command considers the main reason for slow progress to be a personnel shortage rather than the inefficiency of their troops, leadership and military management issues, or the significant lack of armored vehicles. The enemy remains capable of achieving slow and difficult gains through infantry assaults on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions but is unable to conduct rapid maneuvers, which prevents the conversion of tactical successes into deep penetration into Ukrainian rear areas.
Both sides attempt to resume maneuver-based actions, but the dominance of reconnaissance UAVs hinders this.
The enemy's military command is concentrating fewer armored vehicles on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions—two directions with the highest intensity of combat and the densest concentration of their troops—favoring infantry assaults instead.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 161 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy attacks in the areas of Starytsia and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were 8 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault operations near Zapadne, Kucherivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 17 times, attempting to advance near Zelenyi Hai, Borivska Andriivka, Kopanky, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Hrekivka, and Ivanivka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked once in the area of Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 7 engagements were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 12 attacks near Toretsk, Bila Hora, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 42 aggressor attacks in the areas of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Sukhyi Yar, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Novyi Trud, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Novoandriivka, and Novoelyzavetivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 29 attacks near Sribne, Andriivka, Petropavlivka, Kurakhove, and Dachne.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 11 attacks in the areas of Yantarne, Vremivka, Konstyantynopil, and Rozlyv.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian occupiers unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions three times.
In the operational zone in the Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 attacks by Russian occupiers. The enemy carried out 19 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
On the Kharkiv direction, units of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army have been observed, with its main forces operating on the Kupyansk direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
In Kursk Oblast, combat operations have intensified to the maximum level, forcing the Russian grouping there to expend all available resources, and this comes at an extremely inconvenient and disadvantageous time for them. If intensive fighting continues for another 5–10 days, the Russian grouping will need to be rapidly replenished, as it is already suffering significant losses in counter-battles. This replenishment can only be achieved by redeploying forces from other sections of the front.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
The 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense area in the direction of Velyka Novosilka – Vremivka – Neskuchne from the west, expand its control over the section of the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road between Novosilka and Vremivka, and actively broaden the incursion toward Neskuchne and Novosilka. It is highly likely that the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (some brigade units were observed in Kursk Oblast near the village of Pogrebki) will be involved in the operation here.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 10.01.25
Personnel - almost 804,930 (+1,830);
Tanks 9,741 (+10);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,253 (+32);
Artillery systems – 21,789 (+24);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,260 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,041 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,473 (+86);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,884 (+71);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,017 (+3)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of January 10, 2025, Russian invading forces attacked Ukraine with 72 Shahed-type combat UAVs and various types of decoy drones. Air defense shot down 33 drones, while 34 enemy decoy drones were lost from radar tracking, one of which flew toward Russia.
On the night of January 10, in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv, fragments of a Russian drone hit a multi-story residential building, damaging windows and six cars. No casualties were reported.
On January 10, Russian forces used Geran-2 drones to attack Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast. Five explosions occurred, injuring a local woman.
Around 10:00, Russian forces attacked Kherson with a UAV, injuring a 43-year-old man.
Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 115 shelling attacks on the border areas of Chernihiv Oblast, parts of Sumy Oblast, and parts of Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a total of 337 explosions.
On January 9, Russian forces struck 41 settlements in Kherson Oblast. Two people were killed, and another 16 were injured.
In December 2024, consumer prices in Ukraine rose by 1.4% compared to November, with annual inflation reaching 12%.
Currently, 170 shelters and underground schools are under construction in Ukraine.
As part of the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative, Ukraine is sending over 1.9 million tons of sunflower oil and flour to African countries this winter.