Russia's war on Ukraine. 09.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked defensive lines 4 times near Vovchansk and Starytsya.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted 16 assaults in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Vyshneve, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, and Kruhlyakivka. Airstrikes hit the areas of Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Berestove. On the Lyman direction, Russian occupiers attacked Ukrainian positions 18 times near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Vyshneve, Novovodyane, Torske, Novosadove, and Dibrova. Ukrainian Defense Forces gave a firm response to the Russian troops. On the Siversk direction, the enemy failed during two clashes near Ivano-Dariivka and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked 12 times near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Dyliivka. The occupying army actively used aviation, delivering strikes on the areas of Druzhba, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, and Toretsk.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attempted to break through the Ukrainian defense 37 times near Sukha Balka, Novotoretske, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Novohrodivka, and Selydove. The most intense fighting today is on the Kurakhove direction. The enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions 39 times near Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Maksymilianivka, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Kurakhivka, Izmailivka, Hostre, Kurakhove, and Vodyane. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers launched 6 attacks near Bohoyavlenka, involving assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy is attempting to advance near Robotyne and Novodanylivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy assaults. The occupier carried out an airstrike on the areas of Lyubkove, Novopil, and Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces were defeated after 6 unsuccessful attempts to attack Ukrainian defensive lines.
General conclusion:
After the enemy advances to the Oskil River, the gradual displacement of Ukrainian Defense Forces to the south will begin on the eastern bank of the river. In the northern section, the enemy will gradually compress the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces, forcing them to retreat to the western bank near Kupyansk. This operation will not be quick due to the terrain and the fortified Ukrainian positions.
The Russian advance in the area of Torske was halted thanks to the skilled actions of experienced brigades and well-constructed defenses.
The capture of the Lysivka–Pishchane–Andriivka–Maksymilianivka area will allow the enemy to launch an operation to seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to retreat, due to the numerical superiority of the enemy (9 to 1) and the low combat effectiveness of reinforcements arriving in this sector.
The enemy in the Pokrovsk direction is primarily advancing with infantry, supported by artillery and aviation. This direction remains a priority for the enemy's command.
After capturing Lysivka, the enemy will attempt to outflank Selydove from the north and northwest.
On the Vremivka direction, the main goal of the enemy's “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping is to reach Kurakhove.
The flanking maneuver through Zolota Nyva to reach Velyka Novosilka could lead to heavy losses for the enemy, as large columns of equipment used in this direction will become easy targets for Ukrainian Defense Forces' firepower in open terrain.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 142 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, fighting continued in the area of Olgovka. The enemy attacked near Sheptukhovka, east of Snagost, and is trying to regain control over Liubimovka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have taken control of Kremiannoe, targeting crossings and Russian rear positions in the Glushkovo district, making it extremely difficult for the enemy to supply and transfer reinforcements.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducts heavy artillery shelling of Vovchansk and bombs the ruins of the city and the Aggregate Producing Plant. Using the results of these strikes, their assault units attempt to regain control over positions at the plant.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and advanced in the area of Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, the occupiers continue to attack from the area of Pishchane towards the Oskil River, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Synkivka.
Ukrainian forces holding the northern bridgehead beyond the Oskil River face logistical difficulties due to strained supply lines, which necessitate transporting supplies either across the river or by air. Additionally, manpower is critically low, with some brigades operating at just 35-45% of their original strength. In this sector, the enemy enjoys a significant numerical advantage, outnumbering Ukrainian forces by a ratio of 6 to 1.
On the Lyman direction, after the defeat of their assault units near Torske, the enemy has almost ceased offensive activities but continues attacks west of Nevske and on Bilohorivka, without being able to advance. Despite their 4 to 1 advantage, the enemy is failing to achieve its objectives and would need to increase its forces to a 6 to 1 ratio, which is unlikely before the end of November.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces held their positions after the enemy's attack south of Ivanivske in the areas of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The situation on this front has stabilized.
The enemy is focusing its efforts on assaults on Chasiv Yar, where most of its artillery and aviation are concentrated.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy continues to attack along almost the entire front, fortifying its positions on the outskirts of Zhelanne Druhe and occupying the eastern part of Maksymilianivka. They are also attacking towards Hirnyk and Hostre. Fighting continues for Lysivka. Selydove and Hirnyk remain key targets in this direction.
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is fighting to capture Uspenivka, Yelyzavetivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Novoukrainka.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy continues advancing towards Bohoyavlenka and is fighting to capture Velyka Novosilka. South of Makarivka, the enemy is preparing for an offensive on Velyka Novosilka but may abandon a frontal assault due to well-prepared Ukrainian positions and opt to maneuver through Zolota Nyva, where fighting is currently ongoing.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
After suffering significant losses over the past month, the 155th and 810th Separate Marineы Brigades have reduced their activity and conduct offensive operations with limited forces only in the area of Liubimovka and on the northern section of the front near Sheptukhovka.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
After seizing Selydove, the occupation forces will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, thereby preventing the Defense Forces from building up reserves and resources to seize the strategic initiative.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.10.24
Personnel - almost 664,120 (+1,150);
Tanks 8,944 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,751 (+11);
Artillery systems – 19,222 (+19);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,223 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 973 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,240 (+55);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,718 (+31);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,618 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 9, Russian forces struck Poltava Oblast with three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. Additionally, they launched 22 attack drones at Ukraine, 21 of which were successfully destroyed, while one drone returned to Russia.
Late on October 8, Russian forces attacked Poltava Oblast with three ballistic missiles, causing damage to an industrial facility. Fortunately, no casualties were reported.
Around 2 a.m., Russian troops shelled a medical-social facility in Stepanivka, Kherson Oblast, wounding two nurses. Both victims were hospitalized with moderate injuries.
Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast with drones for the third consecutive night, with most targets being intercepted by air defense. The attack damaged windows and the façade of a nine-story building in the Odesa district, injuring five people, three of whom were hospitalized with moderate injuries.
On October 9, Russian forces twice attacked Kherson with drones, killing one person and injuring two others. A bomb dropped on an elderly cyclist led to his death.
Russian troops attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the day, damaging infrastructure, as well as industrial and transport enterprises.
The Coordinating Headquarters for Mandatory Evacuation made the decision to forcibly evacuate 497 children and their families from 90 villages in Sumy district and 11 villages in Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, due to threats to their lives.
According to the Joint Register of Missing Persons under Special Circumstances, around 49,000 people are currently missing in Ukraine.
A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from September 20 to October 3 showed that the vast majority of Ukrainians—81%—still believe Ukraine can succeed in the war with proper Western support. Only 14% believe Russia is too strong to defeat, an increase from 7% in December 2023. The survey also found that in all regions, most Ukrainians believe in victory, ranging from 67% in the East to 87% in the West.