Russia's war on Ukraine. 09.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces hold positions in the southern part of Cherkasskya Konopelka and are trying to take control of the surrounding forest areas. Fighting continues near Makhnovka, Cherkasskya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and around the "Lotos" gas station on the 38K-028 Sudzha–Oboyan highway. The enemy is attempting to push “Siversk” OTG units away from its strongpoints near Sverdlivkovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk.
Ukrainian Defense Forces detected and pushed a 13-person Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group back across the international border near Seredyna Buda in Sumy Oblast.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Kopanky, and Novoyehorivka, advancing westward and northeast from Zapadne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault by units of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army near Pershotravneve and other assaults near Nova Kruhlyakivka and Lozova.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, and in the direction of Novyi. They entered the northwestern outskirts of Yampolivka and seized an area to the east of the village.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced along the T0504 Bakhmut–Kostyantynivka highway south of Chasiv Yar, regaining previously lost positions. They are fighting to hold positions in the "Novopivnichnyi" neighborhood and south of the refractory materials plant.
Russian forces attacked in Chasiv Yar, near Predtechyne and Bila Hora. Fighting continues in the "Shevchenko" and "Workshop No. 2" neighborhoods, with the enemy concentrating attacks in the direction of the T0504 highway, attempting to capture the Stupky and Krynychky ravines.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and in the Krymske area, advancing along Kuzanova, Molodoi Hvardii, and Zhovtneva streets in the northern part of Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novooleksandrivka, Zelenyi Hai, Tarasivka, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Pishchane, Nadiivka, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, and Zaporizhzhia. They advanced northeast of Novokalynove and in the center of Baranivka, attempting to reach the E50 Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Pishchane, holding their positions in the southern part of Kotlyne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Shevchenkove, Andriivka, near Konstyantynopil, Dachne, and Zelenivka. The Defense Forces hold their positions on the western and northwestern outskirts of Andriivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced near Rivnopil, Novyi Komar, and Rozdolne.
General conclusion:
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold isolated strongpoints in Toretsk. It will take the enemy several weeks to clear the city of Ukrainian units.
The “Siversk” Operational Tactical Group (OTG) expanded the gray zone south of Makhnovka and created a threat of encirclement for a company-sized unit of the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet, which had previously attacked Kurilovka. The strike by the “Siversk” OTG targeted enemy units already exhausted from battles in January.
Due to a shortage of manpower, the command of the Russian counterterrorist operation in Kursk Oblast may redeploy forces from other sections of the front to counter the “Siversk” OTG's offensive near Cherkasskya Konopelka. This redeployment would draw units from Pogrebki, Malaya Loknia, Novyi Klin, and Daryino, leaving those areas vulnerable to new strikes by the “Siversk” OTG. The enemy may still reinforce its group by transferring troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions, but by March it will face a situation where holding weakened sections of the front becomes increasingly difficult.
Over the past month, the enemy has significantly expanded its bridgehead near Dvorichna, advancing both to the west and north and south. More units from the 6th Combined Arms Army are being transferred to the western bank of the Oskil River. The enemy has also begun creating a new bridgehead to the north, in the Topoli area. The main direction of the offensive is gradually shifting toward Velykyi Burluk.
The command of the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is concentrating efforts on capturing Bilohorivka, attempting to outflank it from the direction of Yampolivka. If successful, the Lyman direction could be reinforced with additional units from neighboring front sectors, leading to changes in the operational plans of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping. The immediate objectives could include capturing Lyman and Yampil and advancing toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north.
No decisive actions by the enemy on the Toretsk direction should be expected due to significant losses sustained by enemy forces in battles for Toretsk, including from their own aviation strikes. The enemy units operating east of Myrnohrad, also weakened from exhaustion, are unlikely to advance toward Kostyantynivka in the near future and will focus only on localized objectives. If the Kramatorsk direction becomes the new primary thrust of the enemy’s main offensive, the enemy grouping here could increase to 50,000–70,000 troops by pulling forces from the Pokrovsk, Huliaypole, and Novopavlivka directions.
Counterattacks by Ukrainian Defense Forces from Uspenivka and Pishchane toward Solone could cut off the tip of the Russian salient south of Pokrovsk. The gradual strengthening of the “Khortytsia” Operational Strategic Group (OSG) near Pokrovsk will allow them to launch a series of counterstrikes not only from Pokrovsk itself but also from the west.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 133 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, two enemy attacks near Vovchansk were repelled.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy carried out eight attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked seven times, attempting to advance toward Novyi, Kolodyazi, Novoyehorivka, and Yampolivka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked four times near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, three engagements were recorded near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy conducted nine attacks near Krymske and Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 54 enemy attacks were stopped in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Pishchane, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, Dachne, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Zelenyi Hai, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Udachne, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, and Shevchenko.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 attacks, focusing efforts near Konstyantynopil.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy attacked in the direction of Novopil.
In the operational zone in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy attacks, and the enemy launched 44 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
The airports "Gumrak" in Volgograd, "Stupino" in Nizhny Novgorod, and "Pulkovo" in Saint Petersburg were closed due to UAV attacks. Due to an earlier strike, the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov Oblast has suspended operations.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Enemy command in the theater of operations may redeploy the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army from the Novopavlivka direction to the Toretsk direction for an offensive on Kostyantynivka in the spring or summer of 2025.
The 433rd, 506th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 239th Tank Regiment, the 87th Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army are advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk.
The 6th, 80th Tank Regiments, and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division are advancing along the Nadiivka – Sribne line southwest of Pokrovsk.
The 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 67th Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division operate n the eastern outskirts of Andriivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
The command of the enemy’s "Sever (North)" and "Zapad (West)" Operational Groupings will have to address the problem of expanding the bridgehead in the Dvorichna and Novomlynsk area at any cost in the short term. To capture Kupyansk, it will also be necessary to cross the Oskil River south of the city. However, the 1st Tank Army is currently unable to expand its access to the river or organize and conduct a full-scale crossing, as the forces of "Khortytsia" OSG have forced the enemy to fight in this area with a front deployed in three directions simultaneously. The command of the enemy’s "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping will soon attempt to increase its efforts on the bridgehead by deploying several units of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army or the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps into battle.
Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing "Khortytsia" OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction. To implement this plan, the command of "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will need to expand the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River to a size sufficient for concentrating an assault grouping and find additional forces and resources.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
The most likely course of enemy actions in the operational zone of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping may involve the capture of the Novodarivka–Novopil–Zelene Pole–Novosilka area, followed by an attempted breakthrough toward Bahatyr and Komar. To accomplish this, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and part of the forces of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (whose main forces operate in Kursk Oblast) will be redeployed from the right flank of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army. The 36th Combined Arms Army will be fully deployed east of the Mokri Yaly River and reinforced with the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be moved into reserve and later used to develop the offensive toward Komar and Bahatyr. Securing this initial objective will enable the command of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to create highly favorable conditions for an offensive by the 35th Combined Arms Army on the Huliaypole direction. A breakthrough to Bahatyr and Komar would allow the enemy to achieve operational success across the entire Novopavlivka direction.
The command of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will soon continue attacks toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway along the Mokri Yaly River and will additionally deploy part of the units from the 60th and 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades into the operation.
Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue "Khortytsia" OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka. More and more enemy units are being withdrawn and redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds, and resources. The plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible for the same reason.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 09.02.25
Personnel - almost 849,320 (+1,460);
Tanks 9,992 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,797 (+20);
Artillery systems – 22,844 (+24);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,273 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,056 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 36,529 (+127);
Aircraft - 370 (+1);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 24б486 (+83);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
The Russian Federation used 1,260 aerial bombs, nearly 750 attack drones, and more than 10 missiles of various types against Ukraine over the past week, President Zelenskyy reported.
During the night of February 9, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 151 Shahed-type attack UAVs and various types of decoy drones. Air defense shot down 70 of them. 74 enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (with no negative consequences). As of 9 a.m., two UAVs were still airborne, with combat work ongoing.
During the night of February 9, Russian occupiers shelled the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, damaging three private homes and a gas pipeline.
As a result of a guided bomb strike on Derhachivska community in Kharkiv Oblast on the evening of February 9, seven private houses were damaged, power lines were hit, and five settlements were left without electricity.
Around 16:30, Russian troops attacked Kherson with a UAV. An enemy drone flew into the apartment of a 66-year-old woman, who was taken to the hospital with blast injuries.
On February 9, a Russian missile struck an industrial zone in Sumy. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties.
In Pokrovsk district, Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops attacked a State Emergency Service backhoe-loader with an FPV drone. The equipment suffered significant damage, and a rescuer was injured.
On February 9, Russian forces attacked communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast throughout the day, injuring four people and damaging infrastructure.
Over the past day, the Russian army carried out 342 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Two adults and two children were wounded as a result of an enemy attack on Huliaypole.
The counteroffensive operation in Kursk Oblast resulted in nearly 1,000 Russian prisoners of war. Over 700 have already been exchanged for Ukrainian servicemen, President Zelenskyy reported.