Russia's war on Ukraine. 09.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced to the western outskirts of Nikolaevka and made minor progress toward Makhnovka. They attempted to advance in the areas of Malaya Loknia, Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, Orlovka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Russkoe Porechie, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Bondarevka, Makhnovka, and captured Kositsa. The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army is clearing Pogrebki.
The "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) counterattacked near Pogrebki.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued localized, unsuccessful attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
On the Kupyansk direction, the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army made minor advances south of Dvorichna. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army are advancing on the eastern bank of the Oskil River near Kolisnykivka. The enemy firmly holds the southern part of Dvorichna, advanced along the Dvorichna–Kupyansk highway toward Zapadne, and attacked near Holubivka, Topoli, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Nadiia, Kopanka, Novoyehorivka, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiyivka, Cherneshchyna, and Makiivka. They captured two forested areas, cleared positions between Zahryzove and Lozova, and advanced west of Makiivka. The enemy reached a line 12 km from Borova.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward Kolodyazi and Myrne along the western bank of the Zherebets River, unsuccessfully attacking near Ivanivka, Kolodyazi, Terny, and Zarichne. The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army managed to capture Ivanivka on the right bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River, north of Terny, and established a tactical bridgehead there.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces are gradually advancing south of Verkhnyokamianske, striking Siversk and adjacent areas with glide bombs and carrying out small assaults during periods of frost and poor weather at dawn and dusk. They use motorcycles, buggies, armored vehicles, and tanks to transport infantry to forward positions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division advanced to the intersection of Dniprovska and Kovalevskoho streets in the center of Chasiv Yar. The enemy advanced south of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and attacked near Chasiv Yar, Vasyukivka, Bondarne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northern and northwestern outskirts of Toretsk, near the "Toretska" mine. They attempt to push the "Khortytsia" OSG units away from Dachne and attack along the railway line toward Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces cut the T0504 Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway northeast of Pokrovsk and the road near Malynivka, advancing to the northwestern outskirts of Zvirove. The enemy command of the "Center" Group of Forces has redeployed additional forces to support the offensive on Kotlyne, deploying the 55th, 35th, 137th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 90th Tank Division, and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, along with a motorized rifle regiment near Vozdvyzhenka.
The enemy attacked near Pokrovsk, Myroliubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Lysivka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenyi, Novyi Trud, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Nadezhdynka, Novovasylivka, and Yasynove.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made minor progress east of Dachne and continued attacks near Kurakhove, Shevchenkove, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Sribne, Dachne, Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, Ulakly, Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, and Rozlyv.
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a missile strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army in Khartsyzk.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Vremivka and Novosilka, but unsuccessfully.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces conduct small-scale assaults several times a day, attempting to identify weak points in Ukrainian defensive positions and mostly refraining from using armored vehicles.
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a missile strike on an oil depot near the port in occupied Berdiansk.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces attacked near the Kozatsky and Velykyi Potemkin islands but were unsuccessful.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have recently intensified offensive actions south of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), redeploying fresh forces to this area and using civilian vehicles to transport infantry to forward positions. Troops are transferred from the Kurakhove direction to the Myrnohrad area.
Enemy forces from the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies have been persistently attacking Terny and the entire defensive bridgehead of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the Chornyi Zherebets River for over a month, disregarding their losses. The troops of the "Khortytsia" OSG defending on the Lyman direction, experience significant shortages in personnel and combat equipment.
The advance of enemy forces in the Dvorichna area poses a greater threat to the defense of Kupyansk compared to the efforts of forward units of the 1st Tank Army. These forces, comprising elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division, attempt to expand control over the left bank of the Oskil River south of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have completely withdrawn from the Klishchiivka bridgehead south of Chasiv Yar, retreating to the western bank.
On the Toretsk direction, forward units of the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army have achieved success in the central part of Toretsk. However, their attacks south of the city in the Nelipivka–Leonidivka direction have been unsuccessful.
The command of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping has, over the past 4-5 days, shifted the focus of its main strike to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army. This force is attempting to bypass the Ukrainian defense line of Velyka Novosilka–Vremivka–Neskuchne from the west. The enemy is trying to expand its control over the road between Velyka Novosilka and Uspenivka, between Novosilka and Vremivka. While the enemy has not broken through the road defenses, they are actively widening their incursion toward Neskuchne and Novosilka. It is highly likely that the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army will be deployed in this operation.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 192 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched four assaults in the area of Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were 12 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions of the enemy near Holubivka, Zahryzove, and in the direction of Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 17 times, attempting to penetrate defenses near Nadiia, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Ivanivka, and Terny.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy made two attempts to advance in the area of Bilohorivka. The attacks were repelled by Ukrainian units.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked three times in the area of Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched six attacks near the settlements of Toretsk and Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 42 enemy assault actions near Myroliubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Novyi Trud, Kotlyne, and Nadiivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 38 Russian attacks. The occupiers most actively tried to advance in the areas of Dachne, Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, and Yasynove.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 16 assaults in the areas of Novosilka, Konstyantynopolske, Yantarne, and in the direction of Konstyantynopil.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces are making efforts to prevent the enemy from advancing deeper into Ukrainian territory, successfully repelling three enemy assault actions.
In the Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 48 enemy attacks, and combat engagements continue without pause.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is engaged in combat near Sverdlivkovo in Kursk Oblast.
The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps and the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division are engaged in combat near the refractory materials plant in the center of Chasiv Yar.
The 1st, 9th, and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion "Sparta" of the 51st Combined Arms Army, are advancing in Toretsk.
The 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 907th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army operate near Pokrovsk.
The 6th and 80th Tank Regiments, along with the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, are engaged in combat in the Slovyanka-Petropavlivka area. The 68th Tank Regiment and the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate near Kurakhove.
The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army is advancing on Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and attempting to push along the Velyka Novosilka-Huliaypole road.
The 11th BARS Detachment "Kuban" is training in a rear area on the Zaporizhzhia direction in preparation for further combat operations near Orikhiv. The BARS Detachment "Sarmat" and the 7th Air Assault Division operate near Kamianske.
The 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army and the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps operate in Kherson Oblast.
Possible operation situation developments:
In Kursk Oblast, combat operations have intensified to the maximum level, forcing the Russian grouping there to expend all available resources, and this comes at an extremely inconvenient and disadvantageous time for them. If intensive fighting continues for another 5–10 days, the Russian grouping will need to be rapidly replenished, as it is already suffering significant losses in counter-battles. This replenishment can only be achieved by redeploying forces from other sections of the front.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.01.25
Personnel - almost 803,100 (+1,430);
Tanks 9,731 (+17);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,221 (+16);
Artillery systems – 21,765 (+36);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,260 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,038 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,387 (+80);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,813 (+86);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,014 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Russian aviation has used over 51,000 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine, approximately 40,000 of them in 2024.
On the night of January 9, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 70 strike UAVs of the Shahed type and various types of decoy drones. As of 09:00, 46 strike UAVs were confirmed shot down. Twenty-four enemy decoy drones were lost locally (without negative consequences). Due to the fall of shot-down strike UAVs, private houses were damaged in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Cherkasy Oblasts.
By the morning of January 9, the number of people injured from guided aerial bomb strikes on Zaporizhzhia had risen to 113, with 13 residents killed. Fifty-nine people were hospitalized, 10 of whom are in critical condition.
Around 08:30, the Russian forces struck Nezlamne in the Bilozerka community, Kherson Oblast. A woman on the street suffered fatal injuries. In the morning, Russian troops struck Kherson with three guided aerial bombs. Nine people were injured, and strikes hit a business and a kindergarten.
In total, on January 9, 2025, Russian forces shelled settlements in the Kherson Oblast using aerial bombs, artillery, mortars, and drones. As of 17:30, two civilians were reported killed, and 14 others injured throughout the day.
At 14:10 on January 9, the enemy attacked Kryvyi Rih with three Iskander-K ground-launched cruise missiles. Air defenses destroyed all three missiles.
Around 15:00, a Russian Molniya drone struck a civilian enterprise in the Nemyshlianskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring a 65-year-old man.
At 16:00 on January 9, Russian forces shelled the city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast with barrel artillery. The private sector was hit, resulting in the deaths of two civilians.
During the day, the Russian aggressor attacked the Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv with a drone. One person was injured, and damage to the residential sector was recorded.
In Ukraine, trust in courts and prosecutors remains critically low. Only 12% of Ukrainians trust the courts, and just 9% trust prosecutors. Conversely, 63% and 67%, respectively, do not trust these institutions. Compared to last year, the situation has not changed, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey conducted from December 2 to 17, 2024.