Russia's war on Ukraine. 08.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued active operations, with a total of 6 combat clashes. The fighting occurred near Starytsya and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 25 times, focusing efforts around Synkivka, Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, and Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 attacks near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Kramatorsk direction, 4 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Chasiv Yar and Stupochky areas were halted. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy launched 12 attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 Russian assault and offensive actions, with the enemy concentrating efforts around Lysivka and Selydove, where more than half of the attacks occurred. Attempts by the occupiers to advance were also stopped near Novotoretske, Kalynove, Krutyi Yar, Novohrodivka, and Mykolaivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold off the enemy in the areas of Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Druhe, Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, Hostre, Heorhiivka, and Katerynivka, where 37 attempts to break through were made. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 3 assaults towards Bohoyavlenka. Two unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne on the Orikhiv direction were also repelled. There were no significant changes on the Huliaypole and Siversk directions, though the enemy continues to shell civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian positions, using aviation.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian forces effectively stopped 7 enemy attempts to advance along the Ukrainian-held line.
The operational situation on the Volyn and Polissya directions remains unchanged, with no signs of the formation of Russian offensive groups.
Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, shells Ukrainian towns and villages from Russian territory, and conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast of Russia.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have increased the intensity of tactical aviation and UAV use on the Kharkiv direction over the past week.
On the Lyman and Kramatorsk directions, Russian forces conduct up to 10 assaults daily using small assault groups of 3-4 soldiers, with only occasional use of armored vehicles.
The possible capture of the Kurakhove area is more strategically significant than the displacement of Ukrainian forces from positions south and southeast of the Yelyzavetivka–Novoukrainka line.
If Kurakhove is captured, Russian forces could consolidate control over the northern bank of the Kurakhove reservoir on the Vovcha River, freeing up a significant portion of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping to advance on the main direction, namely Pokrovsk. This would also complicate the defense efforts of Ukraine’s "Tavriya" OSG on the Katerynivka–Uspenivka line, including the area around Dalnie and along the Bohoyavlenka–Novoukrainka line.
After the capture of Vuhledar, two main directions of possible Russian actions become evident: Maksymilianivka–Kurakhove, Kostyantynivka–Katerynivka, Pobeda–Dalnie, as well as Vuhledar–Maksymivka, Prechystivka–Novoukrainka, and Vodyane–Bohoyavlenka.
The offensive by the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping on the Pokrovsk direction urgently requires additional forces, which are currently bogged down in the Selydove area and on the Kurakhove direction. The offensive could be supported by the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kurakhove direction, which would allow for the redeployment of some "Tsentr (Center)" forces to Pokrovsk.
The capture of Tsukuryne complicates the defense of Selydove.
Holding Bohoyavlenka by the Ukrainian "Tavriya" OSG will buy time to strengthen subsequent defense lines. The main task of Ukrainian defense units in this area is to prevent a rapid advance to Uspenivka, which would allow the enemy to form a left flank for the encirclement of Kurakhove.
Operational tempo is increasing around Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after a period of relative quiet following the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 172 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Ukrainian forces continued to assault Russian positions near Vesioloe, advanced south of Obukhovka, and attacked areas around Kremiannoe, Liubimovka, Plekhovo, and Kamyshovka.
Russian forces made progress within Liubimovka, with ongoing battles near Uspenovka and Kremiannoe.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops advanced in the center of Vovchansk and continued attacks near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Myasozharivka and advanced east of Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka, launching attacks near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Stepova Novoselivka, and Vyshneve.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked around Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Serebriansk Forest, and Dibrova.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Dyliivka, Toretsk, New York, and Nelipivka, advancing along Rydnychna and Torgova streets in the center of Toretsk, and are approaching the "Tsentralna" mine.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops captured Tsukuryne, attempting to gain control of Hrodivka and Zhelanne Druhe, advancing near Novohrodivka, Lysivka, Selydove, Novoselydivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, and Nevske.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continue advancing towards Bohoyavlenka from two flanks, taking advantage of their superior manpower and resources. The tactical situation around Izmailivka and near Ostrivske is challenging.
Russian forces made progress near Maksymilianivka and continued their offensive near Hostre and Heorhiivka from the direction of Oleksandrivka.
On the Vremivka direction, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced to the western outskirts of Zolota Nyva. The enemy continued assaults near Kostyantynivka, Zolota Nyva, and toward Yasna Poliana.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Katerynivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made minor advances near Kamianske and Plavni, gaining positions north of the dried-up Kakhovka reservoir west of Kamianske, and conducted attacks near Robotyne. Russian aviation continued strikes on Ukrainian forces near Orikhiv using FAB-1500 bombs.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 16 ships, including 7 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 48 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy's operational reserve includes the 95th Rifle Regiment, the 428th Separate Tank Battalion from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and up to three reserve battalions from the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 68th Army Corps. Overall, the reserves number up to 2,200 personnel, 30 tanks, 20 armored fighting vehicles, and 36 artillery and mortar units.
In the area of Hrodivka, combat operations involve the 35th, 55th, and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigades from the 41st Combined Arms Army, as well as the 201st Military Base.
On the Vremivka direction, including the area around Vuhledar, the enemy's operational reserve consists of the 902nd Regiment of the Russian National Guard's 116th Separated Brigade of Operative Purpose, the 1433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (potentially the 1437th, as the number is being clarified), three reserve battalions (from the 5th, 29th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies), the 1440th Motorized Rifle Regiment of "Vostok (Easte)" Operational Grouping, and two motorized rifle battalions. Altogether, these reserves include up to 7,600 personnel, 15 tanks, 88 AFVs, and 54 artillery and mortar units.
Forces from the 35th Combined Arms Army continue to operate near Polohy and Huliaypole, while the 11th BARS "Kuban" unit is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
After seizing Selydove, the occupation forces will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, thereby preventing the Defense Forces from building up reserves and resources to seize the strategic initiative.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 08.10.24
Personnel - almost 662,970 (+1,340);
Tanks 8,940 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,740 (+30);
Artillery systems – 19,203 (+47);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,223 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 973 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,185 (+83);
Aircraft - 368 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,686 (+43);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,618 (+3);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of October 8, Russian forces struck Odesa Oblast with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and launched 19 attack drones at Ukraine. Ukrainian forces managed to destroy 18 of the drones, while one returned to Russia.
From midnight until dawn, Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast with attack drones for four hours. In Chornomorsk, the attack caused fires in apartments on the 4th, 5th, and 6th floors. Additionally, in Odesa District, the roof and walls of an administrative and production building were damaged, causing a fire. There were no casualties or injuries.
Around 4:20 a.m. on October 8, Russian aircraft struck civilian infrastructure in the Esman Community in Sumy Oblast, killing two people—a 38-year-old man and his 35-year-old wife—in their own home.
28 people, including a teenager, were injured following a Russian strike on Kharkiv on the morning of October 8. The strike hit the Industrialnyi District, damaging a civilian production facility.
Around 16:50 on October 8, Russian forces launched another strike on Kharkiv, resulting in two deaths and five injuries. The attack damaged 15 apartment buildings in the Saltivskyi District.
During the day of October 8, Russians carried out a massive strike on the village of Zelenivka in the Kherson community, with around 8 impacts recorded. One person was injured, and residential homes were affected. A fire broke out after the shelling.
Throughout September, Ukrainian border guards recorded over 3,500 enemy shelling attacks in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Most of the attacks were concentrated on the Sumy axis.
Russia continues to use food as a weapon of aggression. According to Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Russia has exported over 180,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain via the occupied port of Mariupol this year.
Due to shelling and combat activity, power outages occurred in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv Oblasts over the past day. By the morning of October 8, 546 settlements remained partially or completely without electricity due to combat and technical issues. In Kharkiv Oblast, one repair crew came under fire while carrying out restoration work, but no one was injured.
According to the Office of the President's Representative in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, before the 2014 Russian occupation of Crimea, 49 Ukrainian religious communities operated in Crimea, but now none of them remain.