Russia's war on Ukraine. 07.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" six battles took place on the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian Defense forces repelled enemy assaults near Vovchansk and Starytsia.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 12 clashes, notably near Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, and Kruhlyakivka. The enemy attacked 10 times near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Terny, and Dibrova on the Lyman direction. Ukrainian defenders repelled four attempts to push them from defensive lines near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka on the Siversk direction. Two engagements occurred near Chasiv Yar and Klishchiivka on the Kramatorsk direction. With support from assault and bomber aircraft, Russian forces attacked four times near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka on the Toretsk direction.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 enemy assault actions in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, Lysivka, and Novooleksiivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian positions near Illinka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka were attacked 93 times. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy assaults near Trudove and Maksymivka.  On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers’ attempt to advance toward Novoandriivka ended in failure.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG the enemy suffered 3 defeats while attempting to attack Ukrainian defensive lines on the Prydniprovskyi direction.

General conclusion:

• "Khortytsia" OSG units have completely blocked the enemy's advance from the direction of Zalizne and periodically repel enemy assault groups between Zabalka and Nelipivka with counter-attacks east of the Kryvy Torets River, significantly complicating the enemy's operations in Toretsk, particularly near Dzerzhynskoho Street.

• "Khortytsia" OSG units firmly hold the line from Sukha Balka – Valentynivka – Panteleymonivka – Oleksandropil (Lower). The 109th Rifle Regiment of the enemy’s 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is unable to provide flank support to the enemy tactical group meant to advance toward New York and Nelipivka.

• Part of the 51st and 41st Armies, engaged on the Tarasivka and Kalynove directions, have limited offensive potential and are forced to conduct active defense.

• The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" and "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Groupings on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk directions have a clear and seemingly feasible plan for their future operations—namely, to deploy their assault tactical groups simultaneously from Chasiv Yar and through the Toretsk area to reach the outskirts of Kostyantynivka from the northeast and southeast. However, enemy forces in these directions are unable to maintain an adequate pace of advance since the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army and part of the 41st Army were redeployed from Toretsk to the Pokrovsk direction.

• The 51st Army, primarily made up of collaborators from Donetsk Oblast, has been designated as the primary force responsible for carrying out objectives on the Toretsk direction and will be held fully accountable for any potential operational failures.

• The enemy's lack of progress on the Kramatorsk direction, especially in contrast to the rapidly changing situation on the Vremivka and Kurakhivka directions, suggests a trend of gradually winding down the aggressor's strategic offensive operation in the theater.

• The Russian Armed Forces’ command has proven incapable of systematically accumulating strategic reserves, a deficiency that is clearly emerging towards the end of their 2024 offensive campaign.

• The Black Sea Fleet is currently amassing P-800 "Oniks" anti-ship missiles, which are being deployed for strikes on targets in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. These missiles, unused since November 2023, have been upgraded, and it’s estimated that the enemy may have stockpiled up to 500 of them.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 148 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, and Plekhovo, repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Novoivanovka and Leonidovo, and are attempting to regain control over the international border south of Novyi Put.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued local offensive actions near Vovchansk and Starytsia without making significant progress. Worsening weather conditions in northern Kharkiv Oblast from November 3-5 have led to a reduction in combat intensity by a third, decreased UAV use, and prompted Russian forces to accumulate supplies in preparation for winter.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Kolisnykivka, on the northeastern outskirts of Pershotravneve, in the area of Kruhlyakivka, west of Novoselivske, north of Stelmakhivka, and conducted attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Zahryzove, Druzhelyubivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, Torske, and Terny.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks near Bilohorivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klishchiivka.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka. The intensity of Russian assaults has increased, with occupiers amassing reserves.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced southeast of Novooleksiivka, continuing attacks near Promin, Myrolyubivka, Hryhorivka, Krutyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Lysivka, Selydove, Vyshneve, and Novooleksiivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army advanced in the northwestern part of Stepanivka. Russian forces advanced near Novodmytrivka and Berestky, and continued offensives near Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Stepanivka, Hostre, Maksymilianivka, Illinka, Vovchenka, and Ostrivske.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced within Antonivka, east and north of Bohoyavlenka, near Uspenivka, within Yelyzavetivka, southwest of Trudove, captured Yasna Polyana and Antonivka, and continued attacks near Katerynivka, Maksymivka, Konstyantynopil, Rozdolne, and Velyka Novosilka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced west of Nesteryanka, attacking near Orikhove and Novoandriivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out an airstrike on the base of the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Navy in the city of Kaspiysk. Preliminary reports indicate that two small missile-artillery ships, “Dagestan” (the flagship of the Caspian Flotilla) and “Tatarstan”, both of Project 11611 and 11611K "Gepard" class, sustained damage. At least two small missile ships of Project 21631 "Buyan-M" were also damaged.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps is active near Stupochky on the Kramatorsk direction.

• The "Borz" and "Shturm" units of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operate on the Kurakhove direction.

• The 1472nd and 430th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 68th Army Corps are positioned south of Yelyzavetivka.

• The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army is engaged on the Polohy direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy is preparing for the final stage of the Kurakhove operation: forces and assets on the left flank of "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in coordination with the 8th Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt not only to envelope Kurakhove but also to break through to the area around Andriivka along both banks of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, forces of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping advancing from the south to the north will try to break through to Rozlyv and Konstyantynopil.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.11.24  

Personnel - almost 704,300 (+1,400); 

Tanks 9,224 (+10);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,612 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 20,194 (+24);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,411 (+78);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,408 (+42);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,631 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of November 7, 2024 (starting at 9:00 p.m. on November 6), Russia attacked Ukrainian territory with 106 strike drones. By noon, the confirmed number of downed drones was 74, with 25 enemy UAVs lost in various regions of Ukraine.

• During the night of November 7, Russia conducted another massive drone attack on Kyiv. Air defense neutralized over 30 Russian UAVs, which approached the city individually and in groups, with waves of attacks coming from different directions and drones flying at varying altitudes, from very low to high. The air raid alarm in the city lasted for eight hours.

• In the Holosiivskyi district of Kyiv, a Russian drone attack damaged an apartment, and fires broke out at a garage cooperative and an auto service center. In the Pecherskyi district, a fire and structural damage occurred in a high-rise building due to debris from an enemy drone. Fires were also reported in the Solomianskyi, Obolonskyi, and Podilskyi districts, with one injury reported in Solomianskyi.

• Russian forces attacked Kryvyi Rih district with drones, damaging a business and five private homes in the Hrushevska community. There were no fatalities or injuries.

• In Odesa, a nighttime drone attack by Russian forces damaged residential buildings, vehicles, and a gas pipeline, injuring one resident.

• On the afternoon of November 7, the enemy carried out five strikes on Zaporizhzhia, hitting residential buildings and a hospital. Four people died, and 18 were injured, including a one-year-old child. Two individuals, one a medical worker, are in serious condition, and people may still be trapped under the rubble.

• At 3:45 p.m. on November 7, 2024, Russian forces shelled the city of Mykolaivka in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast, targeting residential areas. The attack resulted in the deaths of two local women and injuries to at least five others.

• On the evening of November 6, Russian troops struck the civilian infrastructure of the Yampil community in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast with guided bombs. A 33-year-old gas station employee was killed, and a 53-year-old “Ukrzaliznytsia” (Ukrainian Railways) worker was injured.

• In Kherson’s Dnipro district, a man was killed by a Russian attack on the evening of November 6, his body was recovered from the rubble the next day, and a 58-year-old woman was injured.

• In Donetsk Oblast, where children are being evacuated along with parents or other legal guardians, 177 families with 234 children remain.

• Russia has begun using thermobaric warheads (TB BCh-50) on Shahed-136 strike drones. The TB BCh-50, weighing 52.4 kg, has a thermobaric effect and contains 2,306 pre-formed shrapnel elements in the form of 9 mm balls. Recently, such drones have increasingly targeted Ukrainian cities, especially Kyiv, according to Defense Express.

• In recent months, Russian forces have expanded their focus from attacks on main power transmission lines of “Ukrenerho” to targeting power distribution networks under regional energy providers (Oblenergo), which locally impacts the power supply in various regions.