Russia's war on Ukraine. 07.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attempted 5 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Starytsya and Vovchansk
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops attacked 11 times near Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Vyshneve, and Novoosynove. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched 18 assaults on Ukrainian positions in areas including Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Zarichne, Torske, Hrekivka, Hryhorivka, and Dibrova. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted the enemy's attempt to improve their tactical situation near Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces failed in 9 attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers launched 17 assaults near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, intense fighting continues with 19 Russian attacks. Russian forces are most active near Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Kruty Yar, Novotroitske, Promin, Petrivka, and Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction there were 17 combat clashes. The enemy tried to advance in the areas of Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Tsukuryne, Hostre, Heorhiivka, Zhelanne Druhe, Oleksandrivka, and Kostyantynivka. Fighting is ongoing near Bohoyavlenka on the Vremivka direction with 7 Russian assaults near Yasna Polyana and Zolota Nyva using strike aviation.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 6 enemy attacks were repelled with no success for Russian forces.
General conclusion:
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have resumed using armored vehicles during localized reconnaissance and assault operations south of Selydove from Tsukuryne. The enemy is preparing to increase its use of artillery and FPV drones, conducting rotations, and sending reinforcements toward Selydove.
Russian forces typically build up personnel and armored vehicles over 1-2 weeks for assaults on Ukrainian positions, which last for 1-2 days.
The enemy has gathered more personnel and armored vehicles on the Kurakhove direction, although the overall combat effectiveness of their units has decreased.
Russian forces have reduced the intensity of combat operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction, concentrating assault groups near Robotyne in preparation for further actions in the area in the coming days.
In southern Ukraine, Russian troops rarely use armored vehicles in assaults, instead relying on small assault groups with unarmored high-speed vehicles such as motorcycles, buggies, and ATVs to quickly attack Ukrainian positions while avoiding minefields.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 99 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction "Siversk" OTG assaulted enemy positions near Novyi Put, Vesioloe, Liubimovka, and Plekhovo.
Russian forces attacked near Medvezhye, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Liubimovka, advanced near Plekhovo, east of Kremiannoe, and southeast of Zhuravli.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Hlushkivka and to Kruhlyakivka, continued assaults in the area of Synkivka, near Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosynove, Pishchane, Lozova, towards Borova.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske near Novosadove, Torske, Dibrova, Hryhorivka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske areas but were unsuccessful.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their advance in the area of Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Hryhorivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances near the intersection of Rudnychna and Shakhtariv streets in central Toretsk, attacked in the area of Dachne and towards Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced along a rural road southwest of Novohrodivka, advanced further west within Tsukuryne, continued advancing in the areas of Myrnohrad, Novotoretske, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Selydove, Novohrodivka, Tsukuryne, Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, Izmailivka, and Zhelanne Druhe.
On the Kurakhove direction, the occupiers continued their offensive in the area of Maksymilianivka, Hostre, and Ostrovske.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued advancing towards Bohoyavlenka, attacked near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Novodaryivka, and Poltavka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault near Kostyantynivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive north of Robotyne towards Novodanylivka but were unable to advance.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 4 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army is engaged in combat operations on the Kupyansk direction. Units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army continue to operate near Novosadove, Terny, and Nevske.
The 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active on the Kurakhove direction.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is operating near Katerynivka.
Units of the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army are operating near Kamianske.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
After seizing Selydove, the occupation forces will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, thereby preventing the Defense Forces from building up reserves and resources to seize the strategic initiative.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.10.24
Personnel - almost 661,630 (+1,160);
Tanks 8,933 (+14);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,710 (+31);
Artillery systems – 19,156 (+64);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,223 (+7);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 972 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,102 (+96);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,643 (+65);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,615 (+2);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 7, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile, an X-59 guided air missile, an unidentified missile, and attack drones. Around 08:20, the enemy launched three Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles. The defense forces shot down two Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" missiles in Kyiv Oblast, as well as 32 enemy attack drones in Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Several strikes by enemy drones were recorded in frontline areas of Kharkiv Oblast. One of the three "Kinzhal" missiles hit near the Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
As a result of a night shelling of residential buildings in the riverside area of Kherson, an 82-year-old woman was injured. In the Dnipro district, a 61-year-old woman was killed.
During the nighttime missile attack, debris was found in three districts of Kyiv, but no injuries were reported.
Around 03:00 on October 7, Russian invaders carried out an artillery strike on the civilian infrastructure of the Novoslobidska community in the Konotop Raion of Sumy Oblast. Two brothers, aged 35 and 38, were killed in the attack, and private property was damaged.
In Sumy, as a result of a Russian drone strike on a residential area, a single-story house suffered significant destruction, and a fire broke out. Preliminary reports indicate four people, including one child, were injured.
At around 10:30, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on Kherson, dropping four guided bombs on the city. The bombs hit a previously destroyed school and residential buildings in the Central district. Twenty people were injured, including two children—a two-year-old boy and a four-year-old girl. Fourteen apartment buildings, two kindergartens, two private homes, a school, and three cars were damaged.
Around 13:00, Russian forces shelled Zymivnyk in Kherson Oblast. A 76-year-old woman suffered explosive trauma and was hospitalized. In the village of Kindiyka near Kherson, two teenagers were injured in another attack.
In the afternoon of October 7, the Russian army struck Zaporizhzhia, injuring three people due to damage to infrastructure. Doctors assess their condition as moderate.
Around 16:00, the invaders attacked the city of Kupyansk. A 35-year-old man and a 57-year-old woman were injured by an explosion on the grounds of an educational institution. The victims were hospitalized.
In the evening of Monday, Russian forces shelled the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. The attack resulted in the death of one person, while six civilians, including a two-year-old child, were injured due to the strike.