Russia’s war on Ukraine. 07.01.26
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Andriivka, southwest of Varachyne, attacked toward Novokostiantynivka and Ryasne, near Yunakivka, and struck a Ukrainian bridge across the Znobivka River. Units of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade withdrew chaotically from positions near Yablunivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in Vovchanski Khutory and Starytsia, between Lyman and Vilcha, and attacked near Vovchansk, Lyman, Starytsia, Prylipka, Milove, Ambarne, Obukhivka, and toward Khatnie.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the southern outskirts of Starytsia and counterattacked in this area.
On the Kupyansk Direction, Russian forces fought for Pishchane, attempted to advance east of Kurylivka and north of Kindrashivka, attacked west and toward Kupyansk, near Dvorichanske and Petro-Ivanivka, toward Kutkivka, near Odradne, Novoplatonivka, Nadiia, and toward Petropavlivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold Novoplatonivka.
On the Lyman Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance east and southeast of Sosnove and attacked near Lyman, Drobysheve, Stavky, Myrne, and Zarichne.
On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces advanced south of Yampil and attacked Dibrova, Ozerne, Zakitne, Sviato-Pokrovske, Vasyukivka, Pazeno, and toward Riznykivka. The enemy holds part of its positions in Dibrova.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance south of Kostyantynivka, east of Berestok, and north of Sofiivka, attacked near and inside Kostyantynivka, near Chasiv Yar, toward Mykolaypillya, near Kleban-Byk, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, Ivanopillya, toward Stepanivka, and near Rusyn Yar.
On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Shakhove, attacked toward Novyi Donbas and Kucheriv Yar, near Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Ivanivka, near and within Pokrovsk, near Hryshyne and Rodynske, toward Bilytske, near Sukhetske, Zatyshok, Chervonyi Lyman, near and within Myrnohrad, and near Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hryshyne and carried out a HIMARS multiple launch rocket system strike on the M30 highway Pokrovsk–Selydove northeast of Novoukrainka.
On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces advanced east of Novopavlivka and north and northwest of Filiya, attacked near and within Novopavlivka, near Dachne, Ivanivka, Oleksandrohrad, Verbove, Oleksiivka, Vyshneve, Sichneve, and Sosnivka. During the attacks on Novopavlivka, the enemy failed to seize the dominant heights northwest of the village, consolidating only in the southeastern part of the village and shifting attacks to the fields between Ivanivka and Novopavlivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed a 9S32 radar of an S-300V air defense missile system near Novoyanysol.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces attacked near Huliaypole, Dobropillya, Varvarivka, Zelene, Pryluky, Zlahoda, Uspenivka, and Solodke.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Huliaypole and Andriivka.
On the Orikhiv Direction, Russian forces attacked near Plavni and Prymorske and toward Veselyanka and Hryhorivka. The enemy is concentrating assault groups near Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka for attacks on Orikhiv.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the 100th GRAU arsenal of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation near Neia, Kostroma Oblast, an oil depot of Herkon Plus near Striletskyi Khutor, Lipetsk Oblast, an enemy concentration area near Staroselie, Belgorod Oblast, and UAV command posts near Grayvoron, Belgorod Oblast, and Valetovka, Kursk Oblast.
General conclusion:
On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces control Varachyne and Andriivka.
Russian forces infiltrate through forests south and southeast of Lyman.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Russian forces operate in small infantry groups to infiltrate and bypass Ukrainian positions and use heavy UAVs for logistics.
On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces have reduced the intensity of assaults, changed tactics near Myrnohrad, and shifted from attacks using armored vehicles to infiltration and assaults using motorcycles and buggies. The enemy is suffering heavy losses.
On the Orikhiv Direction, Russian forces attempt to advance across the Kakhovka Reservoir and move into the rear of Ukrainian positions near Stepnohirsk and seize the city. Potential capture of the city would allow the enemy to bring logistics routes between Zaporizhzhia, Huliaypole, and Orikhiv under fire control. The enemy operates in small assault groups and employs infiltration tactics, but the Defense Forces are counterattacking.
Plans for the deployment of strategic reserves and the actual capabilities of the Russian military command in this sphere in 2025 have diverged significantly.
During 2025, the Russian contract recruitment system enlisted up to 405,000 citizens for military service. The 2026 plan calls for a total of 410,000 personnel, with 70,000 designated for strategic reserve forces. To meet these targets, at least 68,000 to 70,000 service members will be needed, along with up to 490–500 tanks, 1,040–1,100 armored fighting vehicles, 560–570 artillery units, and a minimum of 200 multiple launch rocket systems. Additionally, two brigade sets will require 24 Iskander operational-tactical missile system launchers.
Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:
There were 221 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk Directions, three engagements occurred.
On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, 15 enemy attacks were stopped in the areas of Vovchansk, Starytsia, and Prylipka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, seven enemy attacks occurred. Enemy assault actions toward Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and Kurylivka were repelled.
On the Lyman Direction, the enemy attacked 18 times, attempting to penetrate the Ukrainian defense near Myrne, Zarichne, Derylove, Karpivka, Serednie, and toward Drobysheve, Stavky, Cherneshchyna, Novoserhiyivka, and Ozerne.
On the Sloviansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy attacks toward Riznykivka.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy carried out 24 attacks in the areas of Vasyukivka, Chasiv Yar, Bondarne, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, and Kleban-Byk, and toward Stepanivka, Ivanopillya, Mykolaypillya, and Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 44 enemy assault actions were stopped in the areas of Nykanorivka, Chervonyi Lyman, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Dachne, and Filiya, and toward Kucheriv Yar, Nove Shakhove, Hryshyne, and Sukhetske.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the enemy carried out 13 attacks in the areas of Oleksandrohrad, Verbove, Solodke, and Zlahoda, and toward Oleksiivka and Ivanivka.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 48 Russian attacks in the area of Huliaypole and toward Dobropillya, Varvarivka, Zelene, and Pryluky.
On the Prydniprovske Direction, Ukrainian units repelled a Russian attack toward the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps operates near Vovchanski Khutory.
The 375th Separate Anti-Tank Battalion of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operates east of Kurylivka.
The 2nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Riznykivka.
The 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Rayske, while the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the division operates near Toretske.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates in Bilytske.
The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army is advancing south of Novopavlivka.
The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army operates in Zaliznychne.
UAV units of the 18th Combined Arms Army strike Ukrainian vehicles in the city of Kherson.
New divisions are being formed as follows:
in the Central Military District, based on the 15th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades within the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies.
in the Moscow Military District, based on the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army.
in the Eastern Military District, based on the 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades within the 5th Combined Arms Army, one of which will be transferred to the 29th Combined Arms Army.
in the Southern Military District, based on the 123rd and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, three divisions within the 3rd and 51st Combined Arms Armies. The 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the 22nd Army Corps is planned to be expanded into the 88th Coastal Defense Division and an artillery division. The 103rd Air Assault Division is planned to be formed based on one of the Air Assault Regiments of the 76th Air Assault Division. Based on the regiments of the 7th and 76th Air Assault Divisions, up to three air assault brigades are being formed within the 76th Air Assault Corps. The 355th Artillery Brigade is being expanded into the 34th Artillery Division of the Moscow Military District, and another artillery brigade into an artillery division of the Leningrad Military District. Two missile brigades are being formed within the 25th and 18th Combined Arms Armies, and two reconnaissance brigades are being formed within the 3rd and 51st Combined Arms Armies. The reorganization of the 40th and 61st Separate Marine Brigades into marine divisions remains unresolved. Newly established divisions differ from those created before 2022 primarily in their limited numbers of tanks and armored fighting vehicles. In addition, support and sustainment units tend to be either understaffed or missing altogether. The organizational and staffing structure of the new divisions indicates their assault-oriented role.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Southern Slobozhanske Direction, the enemy will attempt to capture Vovchansk, attempt to break through in the area of Tsehelne toward the Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv road and the highway to Rubizhne with the forces of a tactical grouping (elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 11th and the 44th Army Corps). These actions will slow the enemy’s advance along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets to Bilyi Kolodyaz, Verkhnya Pysarivka and Buhayivka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, the enemy will hold its bridgehead in the Dvorichna and simultaneously will develop an offensive by the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army east of the city. The troops of the 6th Combined Arms Army will envelop the defense area of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Kolodyazne, will attack in the Milove – Ambarne and Krasne Pershe – Novovasylivka Directions, and will break through in the Dvorichna – Ridkodub Direction. Enemy troops have been tasked with capturing Kupyansk by February 2026.
The defeat of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping in Kupyansk complicates and delays the seizure of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. The successes of Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk Direction will not allow Russian forces to exploit the advance of the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army near Lyman and the 3rd Combined Arms Army near Siversk, thereby slowing the movement toward Sloviansk. Enemy forces will need to force the Siverskyi Donets River in the Lyman Direction to reach Sloviansk and secure their flanks against a possible counterstrike by Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Izium area. Russian forces are unable to develop an offensive toward Sloviansk from the Siversk Direction, as they do not have a sufficient number of troops there to conduct a frontal assault on the city.
On the Lyman Direction, the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will attempt to seize the Yarova – Novoselivka – Drobysheve – Pryshyb area and block the Lyman – Izium logistics route along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The 25th Combined Arms Army will continue its offensive east and southeast of Lyman in order to reach the Dibrova – Ozerne line and create a favorable initial position for an assault on Lyman from the south and southeast and will attempt to seize Zakitne and consolidate on the dominant heights. In addition, through actions on this Direction, the enemy seeks to support the 3rd Combined Arms Army, which is advancing toward Sloviansk along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The troops of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies will advance north and east of Lyman with the aim of isolating the defense area of the 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Defense Forces around the city from the north and northwest, in order to reach the Siverskyi Donets River south of the city on the Raihorodok – Zakitne section.
By maintaining control of a bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets river, 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Defense Forces will make it much more challenging for the enemy to launch an offensive towards Sloviansk from this direction.
On the Sloviansk Direction, the 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through from the Dronivka – Siversk line to the Zakitne – Riznykivka – Kalenyky – Kryva Luka area, facilitating the offensive on Lyman by the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army. The advance of the 3rd Combined Arms Army along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in a westward direction will allow the command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping not only to concentrate the main forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies for the assault on Lyman without diverting them to block Defense Forces positions along the river, but also to ensure maneuver by troops within the zones of the 3rd, 20th, and 25th Combined Arms Armies across the Siverskyi Donets River outside the fire influence of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Ukrainian Defense Forces will seek opportunities to slow the enemy advance along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River toward Raihorodok and Sloviansk.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy command will attempt to conduct a deep envelopment of Kostyantynivka from the north, east, and southeast and to break through from the southwest to the near approaches to Druzhkivka, that is, to enter the deep rear of the 19th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in Kostyantynivka and to its south and southwest. Enemy troops will advance in the general direction of Volodymyrivka – Rayske to reach the near approaches to Druzhkivka and will attempt to break through from the east and northeast to the Bilokuzmynivka – Virolyubivka – Izhevka – Kurtivka area. Simultaneously, the enemy will conduct a frontal offensive within the defense zone of the 12th “Azov” Separate SOF Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. The troops of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps will advance to the Novodmytrivka – Chervone line, collapsing the defense of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 11th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Chasiv Yar by an offensive from the south. The aggressor will attack along both banks of the Kazennyi Torets River in the Sofiivka area, attempt to seize the village, and advance toward Novopavlivka and Torske. In the offensive zone of the 8th Combined Arms Army, the enemy will advance in the general direction of Volodymyrivka – Sofiivka.
The Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad defense area of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces will be seized by the enemy by the end of January 2026. By capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the enemy gains the chance to launch an offensive toward Dobropillya and potentially break through rapidly, with the 2nd Combined Arms Army advancing from Pokrovsk and the 51st Combined Arms Army moving from the bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River. The command of the enemy “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will not be able to bypass/envelop the defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flanks, as the Defense Forces firmly hold the Vilne – Novyi Donbas line, leaving only a frontal offensive on Dobropillya, which will entail enormous losses.
On the Oleksandrivka and Huliaypole Directions, the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to envelop the Huliaypole defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north, block its main lines of communication, reach the Huliaypole–Pokrovske road on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section, reach the Khaychur River, force it in the Danylivka–Dobropillya area, and encircle Huliaypole from the northwest. Forces of the 36th Combined Arms Army and elements of the right flank of the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through toward Pokrovske from the southeast.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the enemy will try to break through toward Novomykolayivka to bypass the Orikhiv defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north. The enemy “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to collapse the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine southeast of Zaporizhzhia and break through to its near approaches, advancing along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway. Simultaneously, acting from the south, the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will attempt to break through from the Plavni–Kamianske line along the left bank of the Dnipro River toward Stepnohirsk, and from the Stepove–Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction with the aim of reaching the near approaches to the city of Zaporizhzhia.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.01.26
Personnel - almost 1,214 500 (+1,040);
Tanks – 11,515 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,865 (+2);
Artillery systems – 35,857 (+26);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,595 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,269 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 73,224 (+122);
Aircraft - 434 (0);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 101,849 (+406);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,137 (0);
Boats/ships – 30 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Starting from the evening of 6 January, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 95 UAVs, about 60 of which were Shahed strike drones. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of the morning of 7 January air defense forces managed to neutralize the missile and 81 Shahed- and Gerbera-type UAVs. At the same time, strikes by 14 attack drones were recorded at 8 locations, as well as the fall of debris in 5 locations. As of 07:30, the attack was still ongoing, with a certain number of enemy aircraft remaining in Ukrainian airspace.
In Cherkasy Oblast, in the Uman area, the fall of enemy UAVs damaged buildings of several enterprises. The resulting fires were promptly extinguished. No information on casualties was reported.
On the night of 7 January, the enemy attacked one of DTEK’s energy company facilities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. As a result of the strike, energy equipment caught fire. None of the company’s employees were injured.
On the morning of 7 January, Russian occupiers attacked the central part of Kherson, killing a man.
On 7 January 2026, on the feast day of the Nativity of Christ, Russian forces shelled the Holy Spirit Cathedral in the city of Kherson. As a result of the shelling, one projectile hit the main dome of the cathedral and another fell on the church grounds. There were no casualties.
During the day on 7 January, Russian forces carried out a massive attack on the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. As of 18:30, eight people were reported injured, two of them in serious condition and in surgery.
Russian forces carried out another strike on two ports in Odesa Oblast, killing one person and injuring eight others. The attack caused damage to port facilities, administrative buildings, and containers filled with oil.
In Synelnykove District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 77-year-old woman was killed as a result of a Russian UAV strike. Her body was recovered from under the rubble of a destroyed house, and three more people were injured.
On the evening of 6 January, Russian forces attacked Dnipro using UAVs, striking residential areas and educational institutions, injuring seven people, including two children. According to Mayor Borys Filatov, more than ten apartment buildings were hit, with hundreds of windows shattered, heating networks damaged, and several vehicles destroyed. A vocational school with a dormitory, a school, and two kindergartens were also damaged.
On the evening of 6 January, Russian occupation forces dropped a guided aerial bomb on the settlement of Mykilske in Polohy District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As a result of the strike, four people were injured, including two children.
In settlements of Donetsk Oblast where the forced evacuation of families with children is underway, families raising 697 children remain. In Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, 2,850 civilians remain, while evacuation from the city is becoming increasingly difficult and dangerous.
In Slavutych, Kyiv Oblast, electricity supply was fully restored after being suspended due to an enemy attack on the morning of 5 January.
The Security Service of Ukraine detained a 16-year-old girl in Kropyvnytskyi who, acting on instructions from Russian special services, attempted to install a disguised GPS tracker near a local thermal power plant to guide a missile strike. The suspect was apprehended at night near the energy facility fence while attempting to activate the digital “beacon.” The investigation established that Russian special services recruited the minor via a Telegram channel advertising “easy money,” promising a financial reward for subversive activities against her own country.
According to a December survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, Ukraine recorded a sharp decline in trust in the United States and NATO over the past year, while attitudes toward the European Union remain relatively stable. Trust in the United States fell from 41 percent in December 2024 to just 18 percent at the end of 2025, and the share of respondents who believe the United States is tired of the war and is pressuring Ukraine rose to 59 percent. A similar negative trend is observed regarding NATO, which is currently trusted by 30 percent of respondents compared to 43 percent last year. Against this background, the EU retains a positive perception: 48 percent of Ukrainians express trust in it, and 55 percent of respondents are convinced that Europe continues to provide serious assistance to end the war on fair terms.
Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the presidency of Donald Trump remain consistently skeptical: 74 percent of respondents believe his time in office is bad for Ukraine. These figures have changed little compared to May–June, when 72 percent held this view. At the same time, the share of those who see Trump’s presidency as positive for the country stands at 14 percent, showing a slight decrease from the previous figure of 16 percent.