Russia's war on Ukraine. 07.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) with forces from 2-3 brigades, engaged in battles in the settlements of Novocherkasskiy, Rozgrebli, Berdin, Pushkarnoe, and Biryukova, advancing towards Bolshoye Soldatskoe, one of the main supply and command hubs on the eastern flank of the enemy grouping.
The enemy unsuccessfully counterattacked towards Kruglenkoe. The Command of the Counterterrorist Operation committed all available forces to attacks on Daryino, Pogrebki, Makhnovka, and Ukrainian positions on the western bank of the Psel River. The enemy advanced from Bolshoye Soldatskoe towards Berdin and neighboring villages.
Ukrainian Defense Forces dealt a missile strike at the 3754th Central Aviation and Technical Base (military unit 13830) in the city of Kursk.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk but failed to advance.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully advanced near Petropavlivka and Synkivka, struck at crossings over the Oskil River, continued offensive actions towards Borova, attempted to advance east of Zahryzove and west of Lozova, conducted assaults east of Kruhlyakivka, and attacked near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Nadiia, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Makiivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces captured Ivanivka and advanced southwest of the village and northwest of Terny, attacking near Zarichne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops attempted to advance along Chervonoflotska Street in the center of Chasiv Yar, attacking near Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces control 70% of Toretsk, advancing along 3rd and 4th Hirska Streets, Heroiv Chornobylya Street, and Dargomyzhsky Street in Toretsk. The city is completely destroyed. The enemy attacked Shcherbynivka and near Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the northwestern outskirts of Vozdvyzhenka.
The enemy advanced northeast of Vovkove, east of Vozdvyzhenka, towards Baranivka, near Yelyzavetivka, on the eastern outskirts of Zelenyi, south of Zvirove, and north of Vovkove. They attacked near Pokrovsk, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelenyi, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Solone, Novovasylivka, Novoelyzavetivka, and Yasenove.
On the Kurakhove direction, battles continued in the western part of Kurakhove, on the territory of the Kurakhove Therman Power Plant. Russian forces advanced south of Shevchenkove, attacking near Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, Dachne, Konstyantynopil, and Zelenivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novyi Komar. Forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army attempted to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Neskuchne.
The commander of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army ordered the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian troops continued local attacks but achieved no results. The enemy is attempting to establish a bridgehead in the island zone of the Dnipro River delta.
General conclusion:
Missile strikes by Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kursk Oblast targeting command posts and communication system elements of the enemy's “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping, as well as the command posts of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, enabled tactical surprise in operations.
Over five months of fighting in Kursk Oblast, enemy losses are estimated at 38,000–41,000 military personnel. Airborne and naval infantry brigades have rotated the composition of their combat units 2–3 times. Losses within the North Korean contingent are estimated at 1,200–1,500 personnel, accounting for 40–50% of their forces.
The actions of part of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping in the direction of Borova are beginning to take the form of a clearly defined offensive axis.
After capturing Kurakhove, Russian forces are expected to focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka to free up resources for redeployment to other operational directions, particularly the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 218 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were four Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Topoli, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 13 times, attempting to advance near Nadiia, Pershotravneve, Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne, and Makiivka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked twice near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, five clashes were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and in the direction of Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched eight attacks near Shcherbynivka and Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 41 enemy attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Ukrainka, Yasenove, Novoelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelenyi, Novyi Trud, and Pokrovsk.
On the Kurakhove direction, 26 enemy attacks were repelled near Slovyanka, Sribne, Andriivka, Petropavlivka, Kurakhove, and Dachne.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 13 attacks in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Yantarne, Dachne, and Konstyantynopolske.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled an enemy attack near Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian positions twice.
In the operational zone in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 94 enemy attacks. The enemy conducted nine airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Russian forces have deployed a layered air defense system to cover the Kerch Streit Bridge. The enemy has increased the number of fuel tankers crossing the bridge, indicating this route has been chosen to compensate for the loss of maritime fuel transport capabilities for the aggressor's grouping in Crimea.
To guard the Sevastopol naval base, the enemy has deployed a submarine on combat duty, and maritime aviation is used to patrol the area.
Ukrainian Navy strikes with unmanned boats on the Russian boats and ships undergoing repair in Sevastopol forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to halt repairs at Crimea-based factories.
Attempts by the Russian Navy to use the base in Ochamchira, Abkhazia, do not allow for the expansion of naval capabilities due to the lack of deep-water naval infrastructure.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 346th Separate SOF Brigade and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army are clearing the western outskirts of Kurakhove.
The 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army are operating on the Kherson direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
In Kursk Oblast, combat operations have intensified to the maximum level, forcing the Russian grouping there to expend all available resources, and this comes at an extremely inconvenient and disadvantageous time for them. If intensive fighting continues for another 5–10 days, the Russian grouping will need to be rapidly replenished, as it is already suffering significant losses in counter-battles. This replenishment can only be achieved by redeploying forces from other sections of the front.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 07.01.25
Personnel - almost 800,010 (+1,970);
Tanks 9,710 (+10);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,189 (+25);
Artillery systems – 21,710 (+45);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,260 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,038 (+4);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,226 (+170);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,708 (+83);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,014 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of January 7, the Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 38 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. Air defense shot down 28 drones, 10 enemy decoy drones were lost from radar, and three flew back toward Russia.
In the morning of January 7, Russian forces shelled the city of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast with artillery, wounding three people: two men aged 45 and 65, and a 68-year-old woman. Two of them were hospitalized. The shelling also damaged a local enterprise, as well as buildings and homes.
Russian troops attacked a civilian car with a drone in Naddniprianske, Kherson Oblast, killing a 62-year-old man. In the evening, Russian occupiers used a drone to attack a woman in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast. She was hospitalized.
Seven thousand civilians remain in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.
As of December 25, 2024, 2,156 cultural infrastructure sites in Ukraine have been damaged or destroyed due to the full-scale Russian aggression.
According to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, as of December 2024, 52% of Ukrainians trusted Zelenskyy, 39% did not, and 9% were undecided. At the end of 2023, 77% trusted the president, but by February 2024, this had dropped to 64%, and by May 2024, to 59%. Meanwhile, the share of those who did not trust him increased from 22% to 36% over the same period.
Three more children were returned from temporarily occupied oblasts to Ukrainian-controlled territory: a 17-year-old boy and two younger boys.
According to the Center for National Resistance, the Kremlin is intensifying its policy of assimilating Ukrainians in temporarily occupied oblasts in 2025. Additional programs by Russia's Ministry of Culture have been introduced alongside the ones existing from the start of the full-scale invasion. Under one Kremlin program, "Cultural Map 4+85," the enemy plans to relocate 5,000 Ukrainian children from temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast to Russia. The program involves propagandist trips for schoolchildren to cities in Russia to "brainwash young Ukrainians and promote further Russification." Additionally, children are encouraged to continue their education in Russia.
In temporarily occupied Crimea, 1,126 court cases have been recorded for "discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."