Russia's war on Ukraine. 06.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian defensive lines near Vovchansk 7 times. All attacks were repelled, and the enemy had no success.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy concentrated its main offensive efforts in the areas of Zahryzove, Synkivka, and Kruhlyakivka, attacking 7 times.  On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Hrekivka, Tverdokhlibove, Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Terny, and Katerynivka 8 times. All attacks were successfully repelled. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one enemy attack near Bilohorivka, and the situation is under control. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled two assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka. The enemy carried out airstrikes on Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces near Toretsk once.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the occupiers attempted to break through the Ukrainian defense lines 31 times near Promin, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, and Hrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy attacked 51 times near Vovchenka, Stepanivka, Illinka, Berizka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Hostre, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the invaders launched 9 attacks near Konstyantynopolske and Trudove.  On the Orikhiv direction, there was one unsuccessful enemy attempt to advance near Orikhiv.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, there were 3 enemy attacks, all of which the defenders successfully repelled.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces have doubled the number of attacks and use fire assault units of three to five soldiers on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. 

• The enemy is maintaining a high advancement pace on the Kurakhove direction. 

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is completing the regrouping of troops to conduct an operation to capture Pokrovsk.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 131 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, localized battles continued around Daryino, Nizhniy Klin, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, and Plekhovo.

• "Siversk" OTG is holding positions near Novoivanovka and concentrating reserves there for counterattacks.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued attacks near Vovchansk. Successful strikes by Ukrainian artillery and UAVs on tanks and armored vehicles are forcing the enemy to use infantry for assaults, sometimes on electric scooters.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Novoselivske, continuing their offensive near Kolisnykivka, Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Kruhlyakivka, Novoosynove, Lozova, Cherneshchyna, Zahryzove, Kucherivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced to the wooded area north of Terny, attacking near Torske and Zarichne.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks near Bilohorivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.

• Russian forces advanced east of Stupochky, attacking near Chasiv Yar and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces captured Druzhba and continued attacks toward Kostyantynivka near Dachne, Shcherbynivka, and Sukha Balka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Vyshneve, advanced south of Lysivka and south of Petrivka, and attacked in the areas of Promin, Hrodivka, Kruty Yar, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Novooleksiivka, Vyshneve, Yuryivka, and Hryhorivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army captured Vovchenka. The enemy advanced southwest of Maksymilianivka, continuing attacks near Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Stepanivka, Hostre, Illinka, and Ostrivske.

• "Tavriya" OSG units retreated from the area of Izmailivka–Hirnyk–Kurakhivka–Ostrivske.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Bohoyavlenka and west of Shakhtarske, engaged in battles for Trudove, advanced north of Kostyantynivka and west of Zolota Nyva, and attacked near Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Hannivka, Dalnie, Maksymivka, Konstyantynopil, Rozdolne, Velyka Novosilka, and Urozhayne.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Novodanylivka and west of Nesteryanka, continuing attacks near Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, and Mali Shcherbaky.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operates near Daryino. 

• The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, and 5th, 110th, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army are positioned along the Ukrainian – Novoselydivka – Novodmytrivka line. In reserve: one motorized rifle regiment and three battalions of the 51st Combined Arms Army, and one tank battalion of the 8th Combined Arms Army. 

• The 33rd and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and the 10th Tank Regiment of the 3rd Army Corps operate in the direction Kostyantynivka – Paraskoviivka. In reserve: up to three motorized rifle regiments on the Vuhledar direction, though only the 902nd Regiment of Operative Purpose of the 116th Separate Brigade of Operative Purpose of the National Guard of Russia is fully staffed. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army is advancing towards Vremivka. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Shakhtarske, and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army is positioned near Bohoyavlenka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy is preparing for the final stage of the Kurakhove operation: forces and assets on the left flank of "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in coordination with the 8th Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt not only to envelope Kurakhove but also to break through to the area around Andriivka along both banks of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, forces of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping advancing from the south to the north will try to break through to Rozlyv and Konstyantynopil.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.11.24  

Personnel - almost 702,900 (+1,250); 

Tanks 9,214 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,592 (+11); 

Artillery systems – 20,170 (+20);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,333 (+50);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,366 (+57);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,631 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of November 6, Russian forces launched 63 "Shahed" attack drones and other drones of an unspecified type at Ukraine, as well as striking Odesa Oblast with two guided aviation missiles, the Kh-59 and Kh-31P. Of the drones, 38 were destroyed, 20 were lost from radar, and two remained airborne at the time of the report. 

• As a result of a Russian attack on energy infrastructure overnight on November 6, parts of Mykolaiv Oblast lost power. As of 8:00 a.m., 21 villages in the Pervomaisk District remained completely without power, with partial outages in the city of Pervomaisk. Electricity was unavailable for 25,500 residential and 1,500 commercial customers. 

• A missile strike on Zaporizhzhia by Russian forces in the evening of November 5 resulted in seven deaths and 25 injuries. Overall, during the past day, Russian forces launched 301 attacks on 13 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 

• After 11:00 a.m., Russian forces launched a strike from the temporarily occupied left bank on Zelenivka in Kherson Oblast. A couple in their home sustained injuries. Earlier, Russian shelling also wounded a man in Kherson and another man in Antonivka, a suburb of Kherson. 

• In Chernihiv on the evening of November 6, a cruise missile explosion on the outskirts of the city injured two people. 

• In the city of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, around one thousand people remain, though due to the difficult and dangerous conditions, it is currently not possible to evacuate them. 

• In Kherson Oblast on November 5, five people were injured as a result of Russian attacks. A total of 17 towns and villages in the oblast came under shelling and air strikes. 

• In Donetsk Oblast on November 5, Russian forces launched 2,835 strikes, damaging eight civilian sites. 

• The Prosecutor General’s Office reports that law enforcement is investigating 49 criminal cases concerning the killing of 124 prisoners of war on the battlefield. These killings began to rise in late 2023 and have reached unprecedented levels this year, with most cases recorded in Donetsk Oblast. 

• Nearly half of Ukrainians (44%) report trying to buy the cheapest food available, regardless of quality, according to a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center from September 20 to 26. Meanwhile, 45% said they can afford to buy higher-quality, though more expensive, food. Another 11% were unable to give a definitive answer. 

• The survey also showed that, since the full-scale invasion, the number of citizens barely making ends meet has increased to 12%, up from 9% in 2021. At the same time, the share of those who feel financially secure but cannot afford major purchases has grown from 6% to 9%. The percentage of people living at a sufficient level but struggling to buy durable goods like furniture or appliances has decreased from 44% to 41%.