Russia's war on Ukraine. 06.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, there were 7 clashes near Starytsya and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, 15 battles took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, and Andriivka. On the Lyman direction, there were 17 clashes. The enemy attacked near Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Cherneshchyna, and Novosadove. On the Siversk direction, 10 battles occurred, with Ukrainian Defense Forces halting all enemy breakthrough attempts in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, 14 clashes occurred, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling Russian invaders near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Ivanopillya, and Klishchiivka. On the Toretsk direction, 16 battles took place, including in the areas of Toretsk, Leonidivka, and Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 51 enemy attacks in the areas of Sukha Balka, Panteleimonivka, Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Novotroitske, Hrodivka, Myrolyubivka, Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, and Selidove, with the highest concentration of attacks near Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 36 enemy attacks near Lisivka, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, Russian invaders conducted 11 offensive actions near Vodyane, Kostyantynivka, and Vuhledar. On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault near Robotyne.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers suffered defeat after 3 attempts to breach Ukrainian defensive lines.
General conclusion:
The invasion of Kursk Oblast is impacting the entire theater of operations, and these consequences will continue to affect Russia's offensive and defensive capabilities after the culmination of the offensive near Pokrovsk.
The Russian military command has not been able to fully isolate its priority offensive operations from the effects of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast.
The enemy in Kursk Oblast has yet to establish a unified line of defense. Their positions consist of three lines of strongholds, connected by tactical and fire support, in the areas of Korenevo–Kremyanoe, Volokonsk–Martynovka, and near Ulanok. Continuous defense lines are being constructed in the Kurchatov and Lgov areas.
In the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast, a large number of Russian deserters have been observed trying to leave the combat zone to the north, crossing the Seym River. Looting of stores and abandoned homes of Russian citizens is widespread.
Personnel of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps near Lukyantsi are experiencing a shortage of drinking water and are refusing to carry out some attacks.
The capture of Pokrovsk by the enemy would complicate the logistical support of Ukrainian Defense Forces on this direction and challenge their defense, but such a development is by no means inevitable.
The aggressor has failed to capture Chasiv Yar and create a threat to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
The command of the enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping is focusing efforts on expanding the Pokrovsk salient along the line of Selydove–Ukrainsk–Hirnyk, considering this a preparatory step for a future assault on Pokrovsk.
The Russian command is keeping up steady offensive pressure across the theater, but they won’t be able to hold the initiative forever. The continuous operations by Ukraine’s "Siversk" OTG in Kursk Oblast are pushing the Russian offensive toward a culmination point faster than their strategic plan expected.
Coordinated Russian offensive operations on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction toward the western flank of the Ukrainian defense around Vuhledar are aimed at increasing pressure on the Ukrainian tactical grouping in Vuhledar and creating conditions for further advances on the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian forces have significantly intensified their offensive actions near Vuhledar and have achieved minor tactical successes in this area.
The intensification of enemy attacks on the Vremivka direction will not lead to a reduction in the intensity of fighting on other fronts.
The goal of increasing attacks near Vuhledar is to cut off the O0532 highway between Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar.
The simultaneous intensification of offensive actions by the enemy's “Vostok(East)” and “Yug (South)” Operational Groupings suggests broader operational objectives.
The enemy's activity near Vuhledar is aimed at pressuring the western flank of the Ukrainian defense in areas west and southwest of Donetsk, as Russian forces approach Kurakhove on the eastern flank.
The Russian military command aims to capture Kurakhove and Vuhledar to create conditions for faster tactical successes along the N15 highway. However, Russian forces will face challenges in capturing these towns to eliminate the Ukrainian stronghold in western Donetsk Oblast.
If the enemy takes Kurakhove, it would deny Ukrainian forces a key defensive position. However, the villages west of Kurakhove along the N15 highway also offer strong defensive opportunities. There's no indication that Russian forces would be able to advance faster beyond Kurakhove if Ukrainian forces choose to defend these positions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 181 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction: "Siversk" OTG advanced south of Spalnoe, dislodging the 382nd Separate Marines Battalion of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet. They continued attacking near Korenevo, around Olgovka, Malaya Loknya, Kamyshovka, Maryivka, Cherkasskoe Porechie, and Borki.
Russian forces are advancing slightly north of Pogrebki.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions northeast of Lyptsi.
Russian forces continued attacking near Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops made small advances northwest of Pishchane and continued offensive actions near Synkivka, Tabaiivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Berestove, Andriivka, Myasozharivka, and Lozova. They also attacked near Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, and Novosadove.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Torske.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops aim to complete the occupation of Pereyizne and continued offensives near Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Spirne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Klishchiivka along the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal and continued attacks near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and towards Predtechyne and Ivanopillya.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced in Druzhba and continued their offensive near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and New York.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Zavitne, advanced to the eastern outskirts of Selidove, and continued offensives near Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Hrodivka, Ukrainsk, Lisivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykhailivka, Selidove, Mykolaivka, and Novohrodivka. They intensified airstrikes on Pokrovsk, damaging a bridge on the E50 highway between Donetsk and Pokrovsk.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces expanded the southern part of the Pokrovsk salient and are working to tactically encircle Ukrainian positions east of Hirnyk and north of Krasnohorivka. They advanced to the outskirts of Ukrainsk and are approaching the outskirts of Hirnyk. Seizing these towns would allow Russian forces to attack Kurakhove from the north, as well as from the east via Krasnohorivka and Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces intensified their efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian foothold west and southwest of Donetsk and to advance along the H15 Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet advanced into the center of Prechystivka. Russian troops also advanced east of Vuhledar, near the Pivdennodonbaska mine, and assaulted Ukrainian Defense Forces near Makarivka.
"Tavriya" OTG units withdrew from Zolota Nyva, while the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade repelled an enemy attack near Kostyantynivka.
Attacks along the O0532 highway between Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar open paths for Russian forces to support both the capture of Kurakhove to the north and the capture of Vuhledar to the west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy continued their assault near Robotyne, Verbove, and toward Novoandriivka but were unsuccessful.
In the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces captured positions in the eastern part of Kozulysky Island in the Dnipro River delta.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Russian military command is concentrating air defense systems in Crimea to strengthen the protection of the Kerch Strait Bridge, relocating these systems from other operational sectors. It's likely that the Russian grouping will have to rely on the bridge as the main logistical route for supplying material and technical support to Crimea and to the "Dnipro" enemy grouping on the Prydniprovskiy direction after Ukrainian Defense Forces disabled the ferry crossing at the Port of Kavkaz in Krasnodar Krai.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 69th Separate Naval Engineering Regiment of the Baltic Fleet lost combat capability in the Glushkovo District of Kursk Oblast after a series of unsuccessful attempts to establish pontoon bridges to secure the withdrawal of the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, losing up to half of its pontoon bridge parks.
The administration of Belgorod Oblast announced the formation of a volunteer unit "BARS-Belgorod." "BARS-Kursk" and "BARS-Bryansk" units are being formed in Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts respectively.
The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, and the 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment are advancing near Prechystivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy's 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
The enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through "Tavriya" OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.09.24
Personnel - almost 622,720 (+1170);
Tanks 8,631 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 16,878 (+9);
Artillery systems – 17,745 (+20);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,178 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 941 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,116 (+72);
Aircraft - 368 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 14,732 (+74);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,587 (+7);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
On the night of September 6, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with one guided X-59 missile, one X-31P anti-radiation missile, and 44 Shahed-type attack drones. Ukrainian forces managed to shoot down 27 enemy drones, eight were lost from radar, and one returned to occupied Donetsk. As of 8 a.m., several drones were still flying over northern Ukraine.
On the night of September 6, Russia attacked Lviv Oblast using drones. A fire broke out near the village of Malehiv close to the Lviv community due to the fall of Shahed debris, causing warehouse facilities to ignite. There is no information about casualties.
On the morning of September 6, Russian forces struck the city of Lyubotyn in the Kharkiv district. Six people were injured, and 28 houses and two cars were damaged.
On September 6, Russian military forces hit Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with 5 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. One person was reported dead, and 64 others were injured, including five children. Rescue operations are ongoing.
On September 6, 2024, around 3 p.m., Russian forces reportedly dropped three guided air bombs on civilian infrastructure in the village of Krasnopillia in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one death and five injuries.
From the evening until late at night on September 5, the Russian military attacked several areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Two people were injured, and 11 residential buildings, cars, power lines, and gas pipelines were damaged.
On Saturday, September 7, no power outages are planned.
In the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, armed Russian military personnel conducted inspections of families with school-aged children before the start of the new school year, according to Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration. Collaborators, accompanied by Russian soldiers, visited Ukrainian families' homes, attempting to force children to attend schools where the Russian curriculum is imposed. Adults were threatened with losing parental rights if they refused. Additionally, their gadgets were inspected for applications that might be used for attending Ukrainian schools online.