Russia's war on Ukraine. 05.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, actively using aviation, the enemy attacked 10 times near Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 21 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Kindrashivka, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Vyshneve, Pishchane, Druzhelyubivka, Lozova, and Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 32 attacks, attempting to advance near Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Kolisnykivka, Katerynivka, Makiivka, Terny, Zarichne, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a Russian assault near Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 5 times near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. The enemy attempted 7 incursions into Ukrainian defensive positions on the Toretsk direction, attacking in the areas of Dachne, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 22 enemy assaults toward Promin, Lysivka, Selydove, Yuryivka, and Vyshneve. Tensions were high on the Kurakhove direction, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 84 attacks on positions near Vovchenka, Illinka, Kreminna Balka, Hannivka, Kurakhove, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Hostre, Maksymivka, Antonivka, Dalnie, Katerynivka, and Yelyzavetivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 17 assaults in the areas of Trudove, Velyka Novosilka, Urozhayne, Rozdolne, Sukhi Yaly, and Maksymivka. On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian forces stopped 6 enemy attacks toward Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Mali Shcherbaky, and Orikhiv.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the operational situation remains unchanged, with the enemy conducting 3 unsuccessful assaults.

General conclusion:

• The future of the defensive stronghold in Kurakhove will depend on maintaining the line along the Sukhi Yaly River. If the "Tavriya" OSG can hold the Zelenivka–Yantarnе–Uspenivka–Illinka line, the enemy near Kurakhove will be drawn into grueling battles and suffer excessive losses.

• The strike west of Vuhledar and the rapid enemy advance north across the Kashlahach River caught the "Tavriya" OSG off guard.

• In October, the overall size of the Russian strategic grouping in the theater of operations has decreased from 579,000 to 556,000 troops. Forces on the Kurakhove and Vremivka directions follow this trend.

• The pace of advance by the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping and the 8th Combined Arms Army within the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping lags behind that of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping due to the physical and geographical characteristics of their operational zones.

• The likelihood of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping’s forward units reaching Kurakhove from the south and thereby supporting the combat objectives of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies is low.

• The forces of the 29th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and the 68th Army Corps will first need to capture Dalnie and break through Uspenivka, advancing exclusively from the south, which is a particularly difficult task for them. The "Tavriya" OSG's defensive resilience increases when it is anchored on natural barriers, in this case along the Sukhi Yaly River.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 230 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in eastern Martynovka and attacked near Daryino, Leonidovo, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, and Plekhovo.

• In the "Siversk" OTG zone, Ukrainian Defense Forces launched attacks in the area of Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Plekhovo, and Pogrebki, and struck Russian positions near Novyi Put.

• On the Kharkiv direction, the "Kharkiv" OTG advanced westward from Hlyboke on the eastern bank of the Travyanske Reservoir.

• Russian forces continued to attack near Lyptsi and Vovchansk, launching small infantry group assaults without using armored vehicles in recent weeks.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Novoselivske and southeast of Yampolivka, continuing their push around Kindrashivka, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Cherneshchyna, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Kucherivka, Berestove, Vyshneve, Pershotravneve, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Torske, Zarichne, Terny, and Dibrova.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces made unsuccessful attacks in the Bilohorivka area.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued localized offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Molodizhna Street in the northwest part of Pivnichne and carried out unsuccessful attacks near Toretsk, Dachne, and Shcherbynivka.

• Ukrainian Defense forces regained lost positions in central Nelipivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced through fields northwest of Selydove and southwest of Vyshneve, with the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, 41st Army advancing towards the eastern outskirts of Novooleksiivka. Fighting continued near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhy Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Hryhorivka, Vyshneve, Novooleksiivka, and Yuryivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced to the western edge of Novodmytrivka, south of Kreminna Balka, near Illinka, and close to Novoselydivka and Voznesenka. They continued attacks near Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Illinka, Vovchenka, and Ostrivske, attempting to evacuate and repair mechanized equipment.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces captured the western part of Shakhtarske and advanced near Katerynivka and Yasna Polyana, continuing assaults around Antonivka, Trudove, and Maksymivka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka, and Stepove.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 6th Motorized Rifle Division, the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, the 98th Airborne Division, and the 58th Separate SOF Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army continue operations near Chasiv Yar.

• The "Volunteer Battalion 'Dostavalov'" is active near Antonivka. In the Vuhledar area, the 14th Separate SOF Brigade and forces of the 11th Air and Air Defense Army conduct airstrikes on Rozdolne, while the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Dalnie.

• The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army has disbanded its "Shtorm" UAV unit and reassigned the UAV operators to assault units.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy is preparing for the final stage of the Kurakhove operation: forces and assets on the left flank of "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in coordination with the 8th Army of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt not only to envelope Kurakhove but also to break through to the area around Andriivka along both banks of the Vovcha River. Simultaneously, forces of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping advancing from the south to the north will try to break through to Rozlyv and Konstyantynopil.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.11.24  

Personnel - almost 701,650 (+1,260); 

Tanks 9,208 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,581 (+43); 

Artillery systems – 20,150 (+29);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 996 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,278 (+41);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,309 (+29);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,631 (+2)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of November 5, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two guided Kh-59/69 missiles, guided aerial bombs, and launched 79 strike UAVs. As of 8:30 AM, two Kh-59/69 missiles and 48 enemy UAVs have been confirmed destroyed. Thirty enemy drones lost their signal in various areas of Ukraine, and one returned to Russia.

• Overnight, Russian forces attacked the Shevchenkivskyi and Kyivskyi districts of Kharkiv with guided aerial bombs. Two people were injured, and several private homes sustained damage. Windows were partially shattered in three apartment buildings, and one building’s facade was damaged.

• On the morning of November 5, at approximately 9:30 AM, Russian forces launched a missile attack on a civilian enterprise in the village of Kapytolivka, in the Izium community. A 40-year-old man was injured in the attack.

• Between 9 and 10 AM, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia, targeting critical infrastructure. The attack caused a fire, resulting in six fatalities and 23 injured individuals.

• Around 2:00 PM, Russian forces shelled the village of Hlushkivka in the Kupiansk District. As a result of the shelling, two individuals, a 48-year-old man and woman, lost their lives.

• In the evening, Russian forces fired artillery at Ochakiv in the Mykolaiv Oblast. A 13-year-old girl and a 39-year-old woman were injured. A residential building caught fire as a result of the attack.

• Later in the evening on November 5, Russian forces struck the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv with a UAV, damaging a residential building and injuring two people.

• The Prosecutor General's Office reported that on October 23, 2024, at 5:17 PM, during an offensive against Ukrainian Armed Forces near the city of Selydove, Russian forces captured three Ukrainian servicemen. After some time, the occupiers shot the unarmed POWs. On November 1, 2024, at 2:00 PM, Russian forces, while storming Ukrainian fortifications on the same Pokrovsk direction, captured three more Ukrainian soldiers, subsequently killing them with firearms.

• First Lady Olena Zelenska stated that, according to the Ministry of Defense, 20% of all military volunteers in Ukraine are women.

• Last week, a third of posts by Ukrainian citizens on social media expressed anger. Key reasons included the impacts of constant Russian shelling and frustration toward Ukraine’s Western partners, as reported in a study by the public organization CAT-UA.

• In temporarily occupied Mariupol, Russian forces destroyed monumental mosaic panels described as "remarkable and rare examples of avant-garde intervention in monumental art," created by artists Serhiy Barannik and Akhmet Fathy. These mosaics were made in the assembly hall of School No. 7 in 1990, which now has white walls. In total, Russian forces have destroyed dozens of mosaic panels in Mariupol, including unique mosaics at the railway station and the Tourist Hotel.