Russia's war on Ukraine. 05.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, there were 4 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian advances near Starytsya, Vovchansk, and Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions near Synkivka, Novoselivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders assaulted Ukrainian positions near Nevske, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, 6 battles took place near Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Andriivka. On the Toretsk direction, there were 11 clashes as Russian forces attacked Ukrainian units near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked 14 times in the areas of Mykolaivka, Selydove, and Lisivka. On the Kurakhove direction. the enemy carried out 25 offensive actions near Tsukuryne, Hostre, Heorhiivka, Antonivka, and Kostyantynivka, advanced toward Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers made 4 unsuccessful attempts to advance near Robotyne, Mali Shcherbaky, and Kamianske.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have reduced the pace of offensive operations in the Vovchansk area and continue to replenish their assault groups through internal rotations and replacements.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 97 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction combat continued near Vesioloe, Kremiannoe, Olgovka, Liubimovka, and Plekhovo. Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks toward Novyi Put and attempted to regain control of Medvezhye.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops advanced along Kolokoltseva and Pushkinska streets in central Vovchansk and attacked near Hlyboke and Starytsya.
Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a successful counterattack and captured seven Russian positions north of Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Kolisnykivka and the southeast of the settlement, aiming to cut off the R79 highway between Kurylivka and Borova, and advance to the Oskil River. The enemy continued offensive actions near Pershotravneve, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, Andriivka, and Vyshneve.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Terny and attacked near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, and Dronivka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops continued their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne but made no gains.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Andriivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced west of Nelipivka and attacked near Toretsk, Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Sukha Balka, and New York.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces pushed west from Novohrodivka. Fighting continued in the areas of Promin, Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Novotoretske, Tsukuryne, Lisivka, Krutyi Yar, Hirnyk, Mykolaivka, and Selydove.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hrodivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced along Pershoho Travnya Street in southeastern Maksymilianivka, east of Ostrivske, and west of Hostre. They continued offensive actions near Hostre and Heorhiivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops attempted to advance north of Vuhledar and continued offensives near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and toward Trudove and Maksymivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Robotyne, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamianske, and Novodanylivka, with no changes to the front line.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 20 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army is operating near Vuhledar. The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and the 200th Artillery Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army are active near the "Pivdennodonbaska No. 3" mine.
Troops of the 35th Combined Arms Army are operating in the Polohy direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
Significant losses in battles in Donetsk Oblast, along with the buildup of Russian forces in the "Kursk" Operational Grouping, will weaken the ability of Russian Armed Forces to maintain the current pace of offensive operations across northeastern and eastern Ukraine. However, Russian troops will continue to reduce their offensive activity on less prioritized sections of the front.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will focus on breaking through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka and establishing a foothold on the Oskil River.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, preventing the buildup of reserves and resources necessary for Ukrainian forces to seize the strategic initiative.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
After seizing Selydove, the occupation forces will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, thereby preventing the Defense Forces from building up reserves and resources to seize the strategic initiative.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.10.24
Personnel - almost 659,220 (+1,280);
Tanks 8,916 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,658 (+31);
Artillery systems – 19,037 (+72);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,216 (+4);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 970 (+5);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,905 (+85);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,529 (+35);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,613 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 5, Russian occupiers launched an attack on Ukraine using three guided X-59/69 aviation missiles and 13 strike drones. Three enemy drones were shot down in Odesa Oblast. Ten enemy drones were lost in the north and south of the country, and no reports of casualties or damage were received. Additionally, due to active electronic warfare countermeasures, the guided missiles did not hit their targets.
In Veletenske, Kherson Oblast, a woman and an ambulance driver were injured by a Russian drone attack. The ambulance crew, which had arrived to provide assistance, was also struck. The drone dropped explosives, severely damaging the vehicle. The 60-year-old driver was seriously wounded, and his condition is critical according to medical staff.
On October 5, 2024, the Russian army shelled Bakhmut, Volnovakha, and Kramatorsk districts in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in two civilian deaths and six injuries.
As a result of a drone attack in the Dnipro district of Kherson, four civilians were injured. The victims were on the street during the strike and were all hospitalized for medical treatment.
In the village of Nizhche Solone, Kharkiv Oblast, a 49-year-old man was killed when a Russian drone struck his vehicle.
Around 22:27 on October 4, the enemy attacked an infrastructure facility in the city of Mykolaiv with X-59/X-69 cruise missiles. There were no casualties.
Due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 128,000 km² of land and 14,000 km² of water in Ukraine have been contaminated with explosive devices.