Russia's war on Ukraine. 05.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Mykolaivka and Makhnovka, attempting to advance toward Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Russkoe Porechie, and Cherkasskoe Porechie, and tried to push Ukrainian units from the northern outskirts of Sverdlivkovo.
The "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) counterattacked near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Sverdlivkovo, Makhnovka, and Kurilovka, striking the enemy’s command post near Novoivanovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Lyptsi and near Vovchansk. The enemy conducts intensive air and fire strikes on Ukrainian positions in the northern part of Vovchansk, north of the Vovcha River.
The "Kharkiv" OTG counterattacked near Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Petropavlivka and Pishchane, reaching the center of Zapadne and attacking near Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully advanced in the areas of Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, Ivanivka, Terny, and Dibrova and conducted reconnaissance near Kolodyaz.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the Torske area.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske, attempted to advance north of Vyimka, and struck the railway bridge near Siversk.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Chasiv Yar and near the city, near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora, and tried to move south of Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Myroliubivka, Malynivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyarivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, Kotlyne, and attempted to advance north of Kotlyne, northeast of Udachne, and northwest of Vodyane Druhe.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault on Bahatyr and counterattacked in Dachne. Russian forces attacked near Dachne, Andriivka, Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, Zelenivka, Yantarne, and Rozdolne.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, and Novosilka and are attempting to advance north and west of Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces conducted local attacks near Novodanylivka and Shcherbaky, attempting to advance north of Myrne.
General conclusion:
The situation north of Kupyansk is becoming more complicated. The enemy has pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces units out of Zapadne and expanded its bridgehead. The concentration of significant enemy forces at the bridgehead will not only complicate the defense of Kupyansk but will also lead to a fundamental change in the situation in Kharkiv Oblast not favorable for Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Russian forces in Kursk Oblast have taken an operational pause. After retreating from Makhnovka, the enemy failed to establish a foothold on its outskirts and will resume fighting once weather conditions improve. The withdrawal of the contingent of the Korean People's Army (KPA) from the operational zone also contributed to the pause. The arrival of 1–2 fresh regiments of the KPA is expected within 1–2 months.
The hypothetical capture of Dvorichna and Zapadne by enemy "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping would allow the aggressor to advance toward Kupyansk, Velykyi Burluk, and Vovchansk from the northwest and southeast.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 85 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy assaulted Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk once.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Lozova, and in the direction of Novoosynove, where seven enemy attacks occurred.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked twice, trying to breach Ukrainian defenses near Yampolivka and Dibrova.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy launched six attacks in the areas of Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out ten assaults in the areas of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 35 enemy attacks in the areas of Kalynove, Myroliubivka, Promin, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks. The occupiers attempted to advance near Rozlyv and Zelenivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, three enemy attacks were repelled by Ukrainian defenders near Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked twice, attempting to advance toward Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka.
On the Kursk direction, there were 12 clashes, and the enemy carried out 46 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the oil depot of LLC "Albashneft" in Novominskaya village, Kanevsky District, Krasnodar Krai.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army operate in Kursk Oblast.
The 2nd Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat operations southeast of Siversk.
The 67th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army is active in Andriivka. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army operates Near Zelenivka. The 102nd and 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army are deployed near Dachne.
The 30th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 36th Army is active near Novyi Komar.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
The command of the enemy’s "Sever (North)" and "Zapad (West)" Operational Groupings will have to address the problem of expanding the bridgehead in the Dvorichna and Novomlynsk area at any cost in the short term. To capture Kupyansk, it will also be necessary to cross the Oskil River south of the city. However, the 1st Tank Army is currently unable to expand its access to the river or organize and conduct a full-scale crossing, as the forces of "Khortytsia" OSG have forced the enemy to fight in this area with a front deployed in three directions simultaneously.
Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampilivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing "Khortytsia" OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will attempt to leverage tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk. For this purpose, the intensity of combat operations southwest of Toretsk will be increased.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
The most likely course of enemy actions in the operational zone of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping may involve the capture of the Novodarivka–Novopil–Zelene Pole–Novosilka area, followed by an attempted breakthrough toward Bahatyr and Komar. To accomplish this, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and part of the forces of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (whose main forces operate in Kursk Oblast) will be redeployed from the right flank of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army. The 36th Combined Arms Army will be fully deployed east of the Mokri Yaly River and reinforced with the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be moved into reserve and later used to develop the offensive toward Komar and Bahatyr. Securing this initial objective will enable the command of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to create highly favorable conditions for an offensive by the 35th Combined Arms Army on the Huliaypole direction. A breakthrough to Bahatyr and Komar would allow the enemy to achieve operational success across the entire Novopavlivka direction.
The command of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will soon continue attacks toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway along the Mokri Yaly River and will additionally deploy part of the units from the 60th and 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades into the operation.
Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue "Khortytsia" OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka. More and more enemy units are being withdrawn and redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds, and resources. The plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible for the same reason.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 05.02.25
Personnel - almost 844,070 (+1,140);
Tanks 9,947 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,721 (+12);
Artillery systems – 22,707 (+52);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,269 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,053 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 36,078 (+157);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 24,102 (+99);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed laws on the next extension of martial law and mobilization in Ukraine from February 8 to May 9, 2025.
During the night of February 5, Russian occupiers attacked Ukrainian regions with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 104 Shahed-type attack UAVs, as well as various types of decoy drones. As of 9:00 a.m., 57 Shahed and other types of attack UAVs were confirmed shot down. Forty-two enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (without negative consequences).
On February 5, Russian forces once again attacked Antonivka in Kherson Oblast with attack UAVs. As a result of dropping explosives, four civilians were injured—a 48-year-old woman and three men aged 47, 48, and 54. Later, drones struck again at law enforcement officers who were rescuing the victims, injuring three police officers evacuating the wounded.
A tractor driver was injured by a Russian drone strike in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast.
In Zelenivka, a village in the Kherson community, a Russian drone attacked a vehicle belonging to a municipal enterprise, injuring two utility workers—men aged 40 and 53.
On February 5, Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast with a missile. As a result of the strike on an unfinished residential building, one man was killed, and another is in critical condition in the hospital. Both were passing by the building by chance.
Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 105 attacks of 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, killing one person and injuring two others.
The death toll from the Russian airstrike on Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast on February 4 has risen to two, with two others wounded.
On Wednesday, February 5, Ukraine secured the release of 150 defenders from Russian captivity. Some had been held for more than two years. Among those released were 47 sergeants, 69 soldiers, 16 sailors, and 18 officers. This was the 61st prisoner exchange since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In total, 4,131 people have been returned from Russian captivity.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was forced to postpone the rotation of its mission at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant due to a lack of security guarantees from Russia, according to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi. He stated that the Kremlin is once again using blackmail as a tool to intimidate international experts and undermine their independence. For example, during a previous rotation, Russia attacked an IAEA vehicle with a drone.
As of January 2025, more than 355,000 Ukrainian refugee children simultaneously attend two schools: studying remotely in Ukrainian educational institutions and attending school in the countries where they currently reside with their families.
As a result of an explosion near a Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC) in Kamianets-Podilskyi, the person who brought the explosive was killed, and four others were injured. National Police Chief Ivan Vyhivskyi stated that the man approached the checkpoint of the TRC with a bag and asked to deliver a package, at which point the explosion occurred. This is the ninth such terrorist attack. The police chief emphasized that Russian special services are behind these bombings near TRC buildings and assassination attempts on police officers.