Russia's war on Ukraine. 05.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, fighting continued near Leonidovo, Alexandria, Viktorovka, and Kruglenkoe. The "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) conducted several counterattacks.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempt to advance west and southwest of Zakhidne, northeast of Kalynove, to the western bank of the Oskil River east of Holubivka, north and northeast of Petropavlivka, south and southwest of Stepova Novoselivka, east of Kivsharivka, and attacked near Synkivka and Kucherivka.
The enemy advanced towards Borova, attacking near Zahryzove, Nadiia, Pershotravneve, Novoserhiyivka, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, and Cherneshchyna.
On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces recaptured positions in the center of Terny.
Russian troops crossed the Zherebets River and broke through to the center of Ivanivka, attacking near Yampolivka, Terny, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attacked near Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, and towards Predtechyne and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances along 1st Hirska Street, attacking near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops advanced into the center of Lysivka and northwest of Vovkove, capturing a settlement, and advanced from Vozdvyzhenka to the western outskirts of Vodyane Druhe, north of Tymofiivka. Fighting continues northeast of Pokrovsk, near Baranivka, Myrne, Vodyane Druhe, Tymofiivka, Promin, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Shevchenkove, Pishchane, towards Zvirove, in the areas of Solone, Novoolenivka, Kotlyne, Novovasylivka, Novoyelyzavetivka, Nadezhdynka, Ukrainka, and towards Sribne.
The enemy resumed attacks in the Mykolaivka–Promin and Mykolaivka–Myrnohrad directions east of the city, reinforcing the area with the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and units of the 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain some positions near the Kurakhove Reservoir south of Stari Terny and on the western edge of the reservoir.
Russian troops made slight advances northeast of Konstyantynopolske, are attempting to bypass Petropavlivka from the north, and advance along the N15 Kurakhove – Zaporizhzhia highway towards Dachne. They entered Petropavlivka and continued assaults near Kurakhove, in the areas of Petropavlivka, Dachne, towards Konstyantynopolske and Yantarne, and in the areas of Zelenivka and Rozlyv.
On the Vremivka direction, assault units of the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army are advancing towards the Velyka Novosilka–Uspenivka road, attempting to bypass the defense hub in the Neskuchne–Vremivka–Velyka Novosilka area from the west. The road is already under heavy fire control by Russian forces.
The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 5th Tank Brigade have not yet been able to enter Velyka Novosilka from the east and south, despite the involvement of some units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. The enemy continues attacks along the Velyka Novosilka–Shakhtarske and Velyka Novosilka–Zolota Nyva roads.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Bilohirya, attacking near Novodanylivka.
General conclusion:
Russian forces deploy most recently trained servicemen either to Kursk Oblast or western Donetsk.
On the Kursk direction, Russian troops conduct assaults in small groups using light vehicles, motorcycles, buggies, and scooters.
The Russian military command has deployed over 10,000 personnel for the offensive near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk while trying to avoid direct combat in the city, reducing the number of KAB guided bomb airstrikes.
The command of the 41st Combined Arms Army on its right flank near Vozdvyzhenka is attempting to increase efforts by deploying territorial troops. Since the start of the year, these units have not only successfully attacked the “Khortytsia” OSG’s forward positions and captured Vozdvyzhenka but have also begun expanding the scale of their attacks in the directions of Novooleksandrivka–Zelene Pole and towards Yelyzavetivka. The enemy is aiming to reach the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka road near the interchange east of Malynivka. There are signs that the main thrust of the offensive might be shifted from south of Pokrovsk to this area.
In the event of significant tactical success by the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping command may deploy the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army towards Velyka Novosilka. Additionally, the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army has not yet been fully engaged in combat.
The actions of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet near the village of Novyi Komar and the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade near Rozdolne appear particularly dangerous, as they have cut both main roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka.
Unlike the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping command, the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping command in the Velyka Novosilka area is using its reserves much more sparingly, thereby preserving its actual offensive capabilities.
The enemy’s losses in armored vehicles over the past month are double their replenishment capacity.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 179 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, there were two enemy attacks in the areas of Starytsia and Vovchansk, with active use of bomber aviation by the adversary.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were four attacks by the occupiers. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy's assault actions towards Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to advance near Pershotravneve, Nadiia, Novoserhiyivka, Makiivka, Novoyehorivka, Yampolivka, Terny, Hryhorivka, and the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled nine enemy attacks in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Klishchiivka, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 11 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 45 enemy attacks towards Myrne, Tymofiivka, Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pokrovsk, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Novooleksandrivka, Solone, Novoolenivka, Kotlyne, and Novovasylivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy assaults. The adversary carried out airstrikes on residential areas, concentrating their main offensive efforts in the areas of Sribne, Petropavlivka, Konstyantynopil, Kurakhove, and Konstyantynopolske.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 17 assaults near Dachne and Yantarne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled an enemy attempt to advance in the area of Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders launched three attacks but faced stiff resistance and suffered losses in the areas of the islands of Zabych and Kozatskyi.
Over the past day on the Kursk direction, the enemy carried out 33 assaults on the positions of the "Siversk" OTG and launched 17 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 106th Airborne Division is operating near Sverdlivkovo and Lebedevka. In the Kursk Oblast, combat operations are being conducted by the 83rd and 11th Separate Air Assault Brigades. The 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Chechnya" is active near Martynovka.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.01.25
Personnel - almost 796,490 (+1,730);
Tanks 9,686 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,119 (+26);
Artillery systems – 21,603 (+25);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,257 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,940 (+97);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,447 (+91);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,006 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Over the past week, Russia has used 630 drones, 740 guided aerial bombs (KABs), and nearly 50 missiles against Ukraine, according to President Zelenskyy.
On the night of January 5, 2025, the enemy launched 103 UAVs targeting Ukrainian oblasts. Of these, 61 were shot down, while 42 were lost. Drones were intercepted in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. No direct hits were recorded. In Kharkiv Oblast, several private houses were damaged due to the crash of a downed strike UAV, resulting in civilian injuries.
On the morning of January 5, Russian occupiers shelled Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery, killing a 43-year-old man and injuring a 40-year-old woman. Five-story buildings, garages, and cars in the city were damaged.
As of 3:30 PM, eight people were injured in Russian attacks on Kherson and its outskirts on January 5. Russian forces dropped explosives from drones and carried out artillery strikes on the city. Later, one of the injured victims died in the hospital.
In the Zaporizhzhia District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a UAV attack damaged an energy infrastructure facility. Fortunately, there were no casualties.
In Pokrovsk and Nadiivka, within the Pokrovsk community, five people were injured during enemy shelling on Sunday. Two houses, a store, and an administrative building were damaged.
At 11:45 AM on January 5, Russian forces shelled the village of Kivsharivka in Kupyansk Raion, Kharkiv Oblast, with artillery. A hospital and an ambulance vehicle were damaged.
At 6:56 PM on January 5, the enemy struck the infrastructure of the Sumy community with Shahed drones. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties. The consequences of the attack are being clarified.
Compared to last year, the number of shelling incidents in Sumy Oblast has quadrupled. The enemy most frequently uses guided aerial bombs, FPV drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Notably, FPV drones have been used for 129 strikes in the first five days of 2025.
The situation in the Kupyansk community in Kharkiv Oblast remains critical. The frontline is only two kilometers from the city. The enemy actively shells the community, complicating the delivery of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of civilians. More than 900 people, mostly elderly residents who refuse to evacuate, remain in dire conditions.