Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched 4 unsuccessful assaults on positions near Vovchansk and conducted airstrikes on Muravske, Kovali, and Zrubanka.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked 16 times. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 assaults near Holubivka, Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Berestove, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Vyshneve, and Pershotravneve. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian defenders 9 times near Hrekivka, Terny, and Dibrova. In Toretsk and toward Shcherbynivka, the enemy attempted to improve its position on the Toretsk direction front 4 times, while enemy aviation conducted bombing raids on areas near Druzhba, Toretsk, and Petrivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the aggressor attacked 27 times in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Promin, Sukhy Yar, Novohrodivka, and Vyshneve. On the Kurakhove direction, 72 enemy attacks were recorded, mainly around Novoselivka, Vovchenka, Kreminna Balka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. The enemy also launched 11 assaults on forward positions in the direction of Trudove on the Vremivka front.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to attack Ukrainian defensive positions 3 times.

General conclusion:

• Throughout October, the enemy launched almost daily individual strikes on Ukrainian territory, primarily using Kh-59/69, 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K/KN-23 missiles, as well as Kh-31P, Kh-38, Kh-22, and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles. The low interception rate was due to the fact that the enemy targeted locations with limited air defense coverage or used missiles (such as the 9M723) that local air defense systems were simply unable to intercept. These missile strikes were primarily aimed at Odesa Oblast (14 strikes), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (6), Sumy Oblast (5), and Donetsk Oblast (5).

• October 2024 saw a record high in the deployment of drones by the aggressor state’s army into Ukraine’s interior, with reports citing 2,023 drones used. Other monitoring sources indicate this figure was 1,734, with 79 verified impacts, representing about 4%.

• In Russia, missile stockpiling of Kh-101/555 and Kalibr cruise missiles continues, likely in preparation for increased deployment during the winter heating season.

• Following the capture of Vuhledar, Russian forces have shifted the focus of their offensive operations and are now concentrating on the southern part of the Kurakhove direction.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 160 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced in fields north and northwest of Pogrebki and near Novaya Sorochina. They are establishing positions in a forest strip east of Malaya Loknia and conducted attacks near Liubimovka and Tolstyi Lug, repelling Ukrainian counterattacks in the areas of Malaya Loknia, Novoivanovka, and Plekhovo.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued local offensive actions near Vovchansk and Khatyshche, using civilian vehicles instead of armored vehicles in recent assaults.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces prepare anti-tank fortifications.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Andriivka, within Petropavlivka, and cleared a wooded area near Stelmakhivka. They continued their offensive near Holubivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Berestove, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka. Defense Forces counterattacked near Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Terny, attacked near Yampolivka, Torske, Terny, Dibrova, and the Serebriansk Forest area.  

• On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks northeast of Vesele and south of Ivano-Dariivka. The enemy made minor advances northeast of Vesele and south of Ivano-Dariivka, continuing offensive actions around Ivano-Dariivka and Vyimka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued crossing the "Siverskyi Donets-Donbas" canal in small assault groups but have been unable to secure positions west of the canal. They are deploying experienced UAV operators from other frontlines to reinforce priority directions.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces are fighting for Leonidivka and continued attacks on eastern Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces have stabilized the front line in eastern Toretsk, but the enemy is bringing in reserves.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Novooleksiivka and southeast of Lysivka, fighting for Vyshneve, and continued their offensive in the areas of Mykolaivka, Promin, Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Vyshneve, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, Sukhy Yar, and Novohrodivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced north of Kurakhove, northeast and southeast of Novodmytrivka, and southeast of Novoselydivka, continuing offensive actions near Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Hostre, Vovchanka, Illinets, and Maksymilianivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army advanced on the eastern outskirts of Antonivka, while the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army captured Maksymivka. Russian forces seized Katerynivka, advanced toward a bridge east of Yelyzavetivka, moved through fields between Maksymivka and Yasna Polyana, and continued assaults near Trudove, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, and Maksymivka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northeast and northwest of Robotyne, northwest of Verbove, and southwest of Novopokrovka, conducting attacks near Robotyne, Yurkivka, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka.

• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces carried out localized attacks on the eastern bank in Kherson Oblast, advancing in the Dnipro River delta near Kozachi Laheri, Dnipryany, and Kozatsky Island.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army and the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 58th Combined Arms Army operate on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.11.24  

Personnel - almost 700,390 (+1,300); 

Tanks 9,193 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,538 (+15); 

Artillery systems – 20,121 (+35);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,245 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 994 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,237 (+77);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,280 (+93);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,629 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Starting at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday, November 3, Russian forces attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an "Iskander-M" ballistic missile, struck Kharkiv Oblast with guided aerial bombs, and launched 80 Shahed-type drones and unidentified drones across Ukraine. As of 8:30 a.m., 50 enemy drones were confirmed shot down, while 27 enemy UAVs have lost their location across various regions of Ukraine.

• At noon, Russian forces struck Beryslav in Kherson Oblast. A 63-year-old man sustained an explosive injury and shrapnel wounds to his leg from the attack.

• In the Izium district of Kharkiv Oblast, two teenagers were injured by an explosive device. The children were hospitalized with multiple injuries.

• Over the past day, another 89 people were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borova fronts in Kharkiv Oblast.

• On November 3, a FAB-500 bomb struck a five-story residential building in the village of Kivsharivka, Kupiansk district. Three people were killed, and one woman was injured. As of the evening of November 4, at least three people remain trapped under the building’s rubble, but continuous shelling has made rescue operations impossible.

• In Kharkiv, a Russian airstrike on the evening of November 3 damaged the windows of an infrastructure facility, four shopping pavilions, two supermarkets, a residential building, a laboratory, a coffee shop, 21 market kiosks, a shopping center, a café, two apartment buildings, and 10 vehicles. Fifteen people were injured, including four Ministry of Internal Affairs employees.

• According to the Prosecutor General's Office, 57 Ukrainian journalists have died in Ukraine since February 24, 2022, including eight international journalists.

• As of November 1, 2024, a total of 1,068 people have been affected by landmines and explosive remnants of war since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

• The proportion of Ukrainians prepared to bear the burden of war as long as necessary has decreased to 63%. From the start of the full-scale invasion to February 2024, this figure was consistently above 70%, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Six percent are ready to endure one more year, four percent are prepared for six months, and 15% are willing to continue only for a few more months.