Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive and assault actions four times in the areas of Starytsya and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 11 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Kurylivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Petropavlivka, and Pershotravneve. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces stopped 13 enemy attacks. The main Russian efforts were concentrated in the areas of Makiivka, Novosadove, Torske, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, and Dronivka. One attack near Spirne was repelled by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Siversk direction. Ukrainian soldiers halted 6 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, Bila Hora, and Stupochky on the Kramatorsk direction. The aggressor's aviation carried out airstrikes in the areas of Katerynivka, Druzhba, and Kleban-Byk on the Toretsk direction, and the enemy attempted to advance in the areas of Toretsk, Dachne, and Nelipivka 9 times.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Sukha Balka, Hirnyk, Promin, Novotoretske, and Krutyi Yar. The enemy concentrated its main efforts in the areas of Mykolaivka and Selydove, where there were 9 and 7 combat engagements, respectively; additionally, they bombed Myrnohrad, Bilytske, and Selydove. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the enemy back on the Kurakhove direction. The occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines 23 times in the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Trudove, Vozdvyzhenka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. Three enemy attacks were stopped by Ukrainian defenders near Bohoyavlenka and one near Maksymivka on the Vremivka direction. On the Orikhiv direction, enemy units attempted to advance twice in the areas of Kamianske and Novodanylivka.
The operational situation on the Volyn and Polissya directions remains unchanged. No signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups have been detected.
On the border with Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy maintains a military presence, conducts reconnaissance activities, and artillery shelling. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations on the Kursk direction.
General conclusion:
Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, which began in the fall of 2023, continue to yield gradual tactical results in certain areas of the front, but there are no significant operational achievements.
Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct an effective strategic defensive operation, inflicting substantial losses on Russian troops, slowly conceding territories but preventing the enemy from achieving operational success.
Ukrainian Defense Forces face serious operational challenges and limitations that allow Russian troops the opportunity to achieve tactically significant successes.
The enemy does not have sufficient manpower and material resources to indefinitely sustain its offensive efforts, especially in the eastern part of Ukraine.
The capture of Vuhledar will not radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk Oblast, and the enemy will find it difficult to achieve its operational objectives in this area.
Offensive operations targeting operationally significant goals, such as efforts to capture Chasiv Yar and push Ukrainian Defense Forces from the left bank of the Oskil River, have either stalled or significantly slowed down.
The Russian military command accumulated operational reserves and resources for a summer 2024 offensive, which have been nearly exhausted in recent months of exhausting battles.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 142 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction "Siversk" OTG continues the offensive in the Glushkovo district, attempting to breach Russian positions near Novy Put.
Russian troops have regained lost positions near Vesioloe, and fighting continues near the village.
Fighting has occurred in the areas of Olgovka, Kremiannoe, Obukhovka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novosiolovka, and Plekhovo.
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh Oblast with a drone strike, hitting fuel depots, ammunition stores, and hangars with Su-35/34 aircraft. Casualties are being clarified.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops continued their offensive near Hlyboke, Tykhe, and Vovchansk but failed.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops conducted offensive operations in the areas of Pervomayske, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, Pishchane, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, and Vyshneve.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske, and Dronivka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops advanced north of Vesele, launching an assault near Spirne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops continued offensive operations in the areas of Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Andriivka, repelling counterattacks from Ukrainian Defense Forces near the "Kanal" neighborhood.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops continued their offensive operations in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, Nelipivka, toward Shcherbynivka and Sukha Balka but failed.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops advanced east and southeast of Pokrovsk, south, west, and southwest of Novotoretske, reaching the eastern outskirts of Lisivka, capturing the eastern outskirts of Tsukuryne, advancing to the city center, and achieving success south and north of the settlement, advancing west along the E50 Donetsk - Pokrovsk highway north of Selydove, continuing offensive operations in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Krutyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Tsukuryne, Hirnyk, and Zhelanne Druhe.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops advanced into the center of Maksymilianivka and near Ostrivske, continuing the assault near Hryhorivka and Kurakhove.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced along the Pavlivka - Bohoyavlenka road. The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army Group captured the northern ventilation shaft of the "Pivdennodonbaska No. 3" mine north of Vuhledar. The enemy continued its offensive near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Bohoyavlenka, and Vuhledar, toward Trudove and Maksymivka.
The capture of Vuhledar will provide Russian troops with a favorable tactical boosting their push toward the H15 Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia highway and eliminating the Defense Forces' foothold in western Donetsk Oblast.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops continued their offensive near Novodanylivka and near Kamianske but did not advance. The enemy unsuccessfully attempted to advance northwest of Verbove.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is engaged in combat near Vesioloe in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast.
The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is fighting near Verkhnyokamianske.
The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd Army Corps, is advancing toward Stupochky.
The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army is operating near Vuhledar, and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is active near Katerynivka.
The 3rd "Rodina" unit of BARS-3 is operating in the vicinity of Robotyne. The 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
The enemy’s military leadership has dispatched over 1,000 conscripts to Kursk Oblast, specifically to the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, and the 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 1st Tank Army.
Possible operation situation developments:
Significant losses in battles in Donetsk Oblast, along with the buildup of Russian forces in the "Kursk" Operational Grouping, will weaken the ability of Russian Armed Forces to maintain the current pace of offensive operations across northeastern and eastern Ukraine. However, Russian troops will continue to reduce their offensive activity on less prioritized sections of the front.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
Even if the enemy halts its large-scale offensive on the Pokrovsk direction, it will continue to exert pressure on Ukrainian defenses, preventing the buildup of reserves and resources necessary for Ukrainian forces to seize the strategic initiative.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. This development is possible within 2-3 months.
After the capture of Vuhledar, the enemy will advance in two directions: towards Velyka Novosilka from the south, southeast, and east, and towards Kurakhove. If the situation in southeastern Donetsk Oblast does not change, the occupying forces, after seizing Selydove, will begin operations to storm Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.10.24
Personnel - almost 657,940 (+1,230);
Tanks 8,908 (+15);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,627 (+31);
Artillery systems – 18,965 (+59);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,212 (8);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 965 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,820 (+70);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,494 (+101);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,613 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 4, Russia attacked critical infrastructure in Ukraine using 19 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully shot down 9 UAVs in the ensuing battle, while another 7 were neutralized by electronic warfare systems.
As a result of a nighttime drone attack on Kyiv, a multi-story building was damaged. A window on the eighth floor was shattered by the debris from a Shahed drone. No injuries were reported.
On the night of October 4, Russian shelling in Bilozerka, Kherson Oblast, killed one man and injured two others. Occupiers damaged at least three residential buildings in the village, and one was completely destroyed.
Overnight and into the morning of October 4, Russian forces conducted 14 attacks on border areas and villages in Sumy Oblast. One person was injured, and local authorities recorded 28 explosions.
During the day on October 4 in Kherson, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone, killing a 75-year-old woman.
The Department for Combating Crimes Committed in Armed Conflict, under the Prosecutor General's Office, is investigating 38 criminal cases related to the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Six Russian servicemen have been charged, with three cases currently in court, and two have already received verdicts. Authorities have evidence of the execution of 93 Ukrainian POWs on the battlefield by Russian troops. 80% of these executions were recorded this year.
At least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Victoria Tsymbaliuk, a representative of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. She noted that the actual death toll is likely much higher due to the lack of international oversight.
To prevent overloading the network, emergency power outages were implemented in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts on October 4.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost connection to its only backup power line for 36 hours this week, underscoring the instability of the electricity supply needed to cool six reactors and ensure other critical nuclear safety functions, according to Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. These partial or full power outages are "one of the most serious challenges to maintaining nuclear and physical nuclear safety."
On the morning of October 4, 2024, in the Russian-occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a car exploded. Inside the vehicle was war criminal Andrii Korotkyi, the head of security at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and a key figure in the repression of Ukrainians at the facility.