Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive and assault actions 4 times in the area of Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 9 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Synkivka, Hlushkivka, and towards Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 32 enemy attacks, with the invaders focusing their main efforts in the areas of Nevske, Makiivka, Novosadove, Hrekivka, and Druzhelyubivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, and Ivano-Dariivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 8 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. The enemy carried out airstrikes in the areas of Stupochky, Hryhorivka, and Bila Hora. Supported by 7 bombing airstrikes, the enemy attempted to advance 7 times in the Toretsk area. In total, there were 15 combat engagements on the Toretsk direction, with the aggressor also attacking in the areas of New York, Nelipivka, Kurdyumivka, and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 61 enemy attacks. The enemy is attempting to advance near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotroitske, and Selidove, focusing their main efforts in the areas of Novohrodivka, Hrodivka, and Mykhailivka. The enemy conducted two airstrikes on Oleksandropil, Selidove, and Myrnohrad. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Halytsynivka, Ukrainsk, Zhelanne, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Kostyantynivka, with the occupiers attempting to break through Ukrainian defensive lines 50 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 10 attempts to capture positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vodyane, Kostyantynivka, and Vuhledar. On the Orikhiv direction, enemy units attempted to advance 6 times in the areas of Novoandriivka, Robotyne, and Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, 5 attacks on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions were repelled. Additionally, the occupiers used aviation to strike Mykolaivka, Tomaryne, Beryslav, Tyahynka, and Vyrivka.
General conclusion:
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian infantry attacks in groups of 2 to 8 soldiers. The intensity of airstrikes has decreased, but the enemy maintains a 2 to 1 firepower advantage.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy's infantry attacks in groups of 3 to 6 soldiers, supported by reconnaissance UAVs. The enemy is hardly using armored vehicles, which increases infantry casualties.
The structure of the Belarusian military grouping deployed near the Ukrainian state border indicates that it is designed for mobile and raid operations, as it has only three battalions for conventional offensive actions.
The distribution of forces across operational directions suggests that the main attack by Belarusian forces is likely focused on the Chernihiv, Pripyat, and Ovruch directions, with a secondary attack on the Kovel and Sarny directions.
The presence of an operational group from the Leningrad Military District headquarters at the command post of the Belarusian military grouping suggests that the likely nature of operations involves joint actions with the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping from this district, rather than from the Moscow district, which is assigned to operate here.
The likelihood of an invasion by the Belarusian Armed Forces into Ukrainian territory is low, but not zero.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 207 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Volyn, Polissya, and Siversk directions, the Belarusian Armed Forces have deployed two groupings:
"Viking" OTG (command post located near the village of Ziabrovka, Gomel Oblast) includes the 339th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion, the 355th Separate Tank Battalion of the 120th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, up to two companies from the 383rd Airborne Assault Battalion of the 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade, the 33rd Separate SOF Unit of the 5th Separate SOF Brigade, a division of the 51st Artillery Brigade, a rocket artillery battery from the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade armed with "Polonez" MLRS; and
"Volat" OTG (command post in the area of Mozyr) includes the 357th Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Separate Airborne Brigade, the 382nd Air Assault Battalion of the 38th Airb Assault Brigade, and two special forces units of the 5th Separate SOF Brigade.
The grouping, consisting of these two OTGs, has up to 3,000 servicemen, up to 30 tanks, 130-140 armored vehicles, up to 60 guns and mortars, and up to 10 MLRS. The air defense of the group is provided by a combined tactical air defense group from the 1530th and 1533rd Air Defense Regiments of the 93rd Air Defense Division of the 11th Air and Air Defense Army of the Russian Aerospace Forces, which covers the Baranovichi airbase and field airstrips in the Mozyr and Ziabrovka areas, as well as troop concentration areas, depots, and other enemy operational facilities. The air defense group has up to 18 S-300/400 systems and 6-7 "Pantsir-S1" air defense missile systems.
The aviation component includes a flight of Su-30SM fighters with a group of ground specialists from the Russian Aerospace Forces at the Baranovichi airbase.
An operational group from the headquarters of the Leningrad Military District (40-44 personnel) is deployed at the command post of "Viking" OTG. In addition, there are 350-400 former Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus, serving as instructors.
The Belarusian military command maintains in a high state of readiness one motorized rifle battalion, one tank battalion, two airborne assault battalions, one airborne battalion, one artillery division, one rocket artillery battery, and three special forces units. The 78th Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 381st Air Assault Battalion of the 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade, the artillery division of the 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 317th Airborne Battalion of the 103rd Separate Airborne Brigade are maintained in 24-hour readiness.
On the Kursk Direction: "Siversk" OTG attacked near Komarovka, Korenevo, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Borki, and maintains positions in Olgovka.
Russian troops counterattacked near Aleksandrovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops continued attacks in Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their attacks near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Stelmakhivka, Berestove, Tverdokhlibove, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, and Novosadove.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops advanced near Nevske and Hrekivka, and attacked near Torske, Terny, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced east of Pereyizne and secured positions on the outskirts of the settlement, continuing their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Spirne, and Ivano-Dariivka.
Ukrainian defense forces reclaimed Vyimka and are securing the village.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, advanced in the southeastern part of Hryhorivka within the "Zhovtnevyi" neighborhood, and continued their offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the northwestern part of Druzhba and continued their offensive near Toretsk and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops advanced southeast of Pokrovsk, reached southwestern Halytsynivka, captured Nevelske, advanced in the fields northwest of Nevelske, north of Zhelanne Pershe, west and south of Lisivka, and continued their offensive in the areas of Kalynove, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Myrolyubivka, Mykhailivka, Hrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, Ukrainka, and Halytsynivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces retreated from Novohrodivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, units of the 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army attacked in the western part of Krasnohorivka and captured a forest belt in that area. Fighting continued near Heorhiivka and Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces made slight advances near Vuhledar, in the Pavlivka area towards Prechystivka, and east of Vodyane, attempting to encircle or surround a tactical group of Ukrainian defense forces in Vuhledar from the east and southwest, while continuing attacks near Kostyantynivka and Vodyane.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is engaged in combat near Sheptukhovka, and the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division is operating near Korenevo.
An engineer-sapper company from the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps has arrived in the Hlyboke area. The 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army conducted an internal rotation near Vovchansk.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy's 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
The enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through "Tavriya" OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and potential counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostyantynivka areas will slow their advance.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.09.24
Personnel - almost 620,350 (+1390);
Tanks 8,618 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 16,848 (+27);
Artillery systems – 17,694 (+30);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,177 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 940 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,007 (+35);
Aircraft - 368 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 14,616 (+43);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,580 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
On the night of September 4, Russian invaders launched an attack on Ukraine using 13 air and ground-launched missiles, as well as 29 Shahed-type strike drones. During the air defense battle, 29 airborne targets were shot down, including 4 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 22 Shahed-131/136 strike drones.
As a result of a Russian missile strike in Lviv on the night of September 3-4, a fire broke out in a residential building near the main train station. Seven people, including a 7-year-old child, were killed, and 64 others were injured. Seven patients are in critical condition. Two schools were damaged, and many windows in the city center were shattered.
In the Russian missile strike on Lviv, four members of one family—a mother and three daughters—were killed. The father was injured.
On the morning of September 4, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, hitting a civilian infrastructure facility in the city center. Six people were injured, three of whom are in the hospital. The blast wave damaged more than 10 apartment buildings, four educational institutions, and a hotel building.
During the night and morning of September 4, Russian forces conducted nine shelling attacks of border areas and villages in Sumy Oblast, injuring one person.
In the afternoon, Russian forces attacked the village of Shyroka Balka in the Stanislav community of Kherson Oblast, wounding two people due to strikes from enemy drones.
During the day on September 4, Russian forces shelled the village of Kozacha Lopan in the Kharkiv district, setting private houses on fire.
On September 4, 2024, around 12:00 PM, Russian military forces dropped an aerial bomb on civilian infrastructure in the village of Yampil in the Shostka district of Sumy Oblast, resulting in injuries to four civilians and damage to residential buildings and government facilities.
Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 81 attacks using various types of weapons on the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts, with 265 explosions recorded.
In Sumy Oblast, a decision has been made to evacuate five more villages in the Shostka and Konotop districts. Since the beginning of the year, Russian forces have carried out nearly 11,000 strikes on Sumy Oblast. The enemy is deliberately targeting the region's civilian infrastructure, including educational institutions in Sumy Oblast.
On Wednesday, September 4, energy companies increased power restrictions for consumers. The reason cited by the energy companies is a decrease in electricity generation capacity at some energy facilities. A source told "Ekonomichna Pravda" that two nuclear blocks at Ukrainian nuclear power plants are not operating at full capacity, resulting in a generation deficit of 625 MW.