Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.04.2024
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack near Andriivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 5 enemy attacks in the area of Terny, where the enemy attempted to breach the defense. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 14 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Spirne, Andriivka, southeast of Vyimka, and Klishchiivka, where the enemy attempted to improve their tactical position.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, where the enemy attempted to dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Urozhaine, southeast of Vodyane, where the enemy, with aviation support, attempted to breach the defense 22 times.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and made 7 unsuccessful attacks on their positions over the past day.
General conclusion:
Russian forces are attacking river crossings in Kharkiv Oblast, attempting to isolate the operational zone on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.
Russian forces are compelled to conduct infantry assaults against Defense Forces positions on the Bakhmut direction due to a lack of armored vehicles and heightened Ukrainian artillery and FPV drone engagement.
The short training timeframe for Russian infantry (up to 1.5 weeks) leads to excessive losses on the battlefield.
The densely laid minefields, deeply echeloned defense, and a prepared fire system in the Chasiv Yar area pose considerable obstacles for the Russian Armed Forces in their objective to seize the city.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Novomykhailivka from the north and south.
The likelihood of the enemy organizing and executing offensive operations in the Southern operational zone is minimal. The most probable directions of attack in the Southern operational zone are the Zaporizhzhia, Vuhledar-Kurakhove, and Huliay-Pole directions.
Russian forces on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast have changed tactics, attacking in platoon-sized groups. However, there has been a notable increase in the frequency of these attacks.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There have been 65 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Ukrainian strong points west of Svatove; the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled their assault near Andriivka. Positional battles were ongoing near Synkivka.
Russian forces targeted a command post of the Defense Forces in Borova with a planning bomb; the bridge over the Oskil River near Kupyansk-Vuzlovy.
On the Lyman direction, units of the "Khortytsia" OSG repelled an assault east of Terny. Positional battles were ongoing near Bilohorivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces advanced to the southwest outskirts of Ivanivske, further west from Ivanivske towards Chasiv Yar. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Spirne, Vyimka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne.
On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces reached the Umanske-Netaylove line and advanced near Semenivka. Battles were ongoing near Tonenke, Umanske, Yasnobrodivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. Units of the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army are advancing near Tonenke.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced near the "Mashynobudivnyk" orchards north of Novomykhailivka, and 500 meters to the southwest of Timiryazeva Street in the south of Novomykhailivka. Positional battles were ongoing near Mykilske.
On the Berdyansk direction, Russian forces made slight progress to the north of Pryiutne. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
On the Orikhiv direction, units of the 1st battalion of the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army repelled an attack by the Ukrainian Defense Forces units on the Robotyne-Verbove line. Positional battles were ongoing near Robotyne, northwest of Verbove. In the area of Robotyne, combat actions are conducted by the 1152nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Territorial Troops, which reinforced the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army.
On the Kherson direction, positional battles were ongoing on the eastern bank of the Kherson Oblast. The Defense Forces units maintain their positions near the Antonivskyi Bridge (north of Oleshky).
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
In the south of Ukraine, there are two main groupings of Russian forces: the "Dnieper" group, which operates in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions, and the "East" group, operating along the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
The "Dnieper" grouping comprises the 58th, 18th, and 49th Combined Arms Armies, the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet, as well as the 7th and 76th Airborne Assault Divisions, along with the 104th Airborne Division.
The "East" group consists of the 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, alongside the 336th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade of the Russian Baltic Fleet and the 40th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet.
Both groupings comprise between 180,000 and 182,000 personnel. Additionally, in the southern part of Ukraine and in occupied Crimea, there are an additional 13,500 personnel as part of the "Crimean Defense Group" and at least 14,000 personnel from the Russian National Guard.
Possible operation situation developments:
The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.04.24
Personnel - almost 445,040 people (+670);
Tanks - 7,018 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 13,386 (+18);
Artillery systems – 11,171 (+29);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 1,026 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 746 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,861 (+48);
Aircraft - 347 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 8,817 (+21);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 2,059 (0);
Boats/ships – 27 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 106 towns and villages and 146 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
During the night of April 4, Russia deployed 20 Shahed kamikaze drones against Ukraine, with 11 of them successfully intercepted and destroyed by Ukrainian air defense systems. Four of the UAVs struck civilian infrastructure objects in Kharkiv, including a 14-story residential building.
During the night of April 4th, Russia launched several waves of "Shahed" drones at Kharkiv. As a result of the mass attack, three rescuers and one civilian woman were killed, while another 12 people were injured. Rescuers responding to a call at one of the impact sites were hit again by drones. Two of them died from the injuries on the spot, and another one died on the way to the hospital.
During the day, the enemy attacked the energy infrastructure in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. In Kharkiv Oblast, equipment of an energy facility was damaged due to a night drone attack. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy shelled one of the solar power plants, damaging its equipment and setting fire. The fire was extinguished within an hour by the personnel of the station and the State Emergency Service; a security guard received burns.
The "Ukrenergo" dispatch center is compelled to enforce temporary consumption restrictions from 18:20 to 22:00 in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts due to the lack of sufficient generating capacity in the system. Additionally, there is an increase in consumption due to colder temperatures in the evening.
The German television network ARD has uncovered that companies from the Federal Republic of Germany assist the Russian occupation regime in construction projects in the occupied city of Mariupol. Evidence in the form of photographs and videos obtained by journalists indicates that companies Knauf and WKB Systems are involved in construction in the city.
Sociologists have found that 36% of surveyed Ukrainians consider mobilization in Ukraine to be insufficient, while 30% consider it optimal. A slightly smaller number of respondents (19%) stated that the level of mobilization into the ranks of the Defense Forces is excessive.
76% of Ukrainians donated money to the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the last three months prior to the survey in February 2024. Meanwhile, 24% did not donate to the Armed Forces during the specified period.
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