Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.03.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Novaya Sorochina, attempted to advance north of Lebedevka, Novenke, and near Malaya Loknia. Fighting continues for Zhuravka. The occupiers are trying to break through the international border and cut off Ukrainian logistical routes, advancing on Novenke, although they do not conduct large-scale attacks.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and in the direction of Bochkovе.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced towards Petropavlivka, are engaged in battles in Holubivka, fortifying positions around Kalynove and near Topoli. They attempted to advance towards the outskirts of Kindrashivka and cut off Ukrainian Defense Forces' logistical route along the Kupyansk–Velykyi Burluk highway, creating conditions for an offensive on Kupyansk from the northwest. The enemy is focusing efforts towards Kamyanka, attacking near Zahryzove, Lozova, and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Fiholivka and Dvorichna.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued attacks towards Nove, Novomykhailivka, Novolyubivka, and Yampolivka.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance towards Dniprovska Street within Chasiv Yar, attacked near Chasiv Yar, close to Hryhorivka, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Oleksandro-Shultyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Krymske and north of Druzhba, attacking near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Toretsk from Shcherbynivka and the Toretska mine.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Udachne. The intensity of counterattacks near Udachne and Kotlyne has decreased.
Russian forces advanced northeast of Dachenske and south of Zaporizhzhia, continued the offensive near Pokrovsk, close to Oleksandropil, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Promin, Zvirove, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, and Uspenivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Andriivka, conducting an offensive near Ulakly and Konstyantynopil.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced in the southeastern part of Pryvilne, north and northwest of Burlatske, and conducted an offensive near Skudne, Dniproenerhiya, and Vilne Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced towards Mali Shcherbaky, attacked near Pyatykhatky, and in the direction of Stepove, Nesteryanka, and Novodanylivka.
General conclusion:
On the Kupyansk direction, the command of the 1st Tank Army of the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping has intensified its efforts south of Kupyansk. The 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 1st Tank Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division conducted a series of attacks in the direction of Kruhlyakivka–Zahryzove along the Oskil River and advanced both west and east of the village.
To capture Kupyansk, the enemy must establish a sufficiently large bridgehead not only north of the city but also south of it. Currently, the enemy’s 1st Tank Army is unable to achieve this objective, as the width of its breakthrough to the Oskil River near Kruhlyakivka does not exceed 6 kilometers along the front. The bridgehead remains under fire from all types of weaponry and unmanned aerial vehicles, preventing the enemy from concentrating a significant force, particularly heavy engineering equipment, on it for a breakthrough to the opposite bank.
On the Toretsk direction, a sequential introduction of forces from the enemy’s 8th Combined Arms Army into the operation is observed, which clearly contradicts the principles of military art. These actions by the command of the enemy’s "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping could be caused by assumptions about the feasibility of using a smaller portion of the 8th Combined Arms Army to break through the defense of the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group (OSG) on the Toretsk direction, while allocating a larger portion for advancing in depth. Alternatively, the low combat capability of the 51st Combined Arms Army may be a factor, as it failed to create the necessary conditions for the introduction of the 8th Combined Arms Army into the operation. It is also possible that a routine rotation of forces is taking place, as after four months of combat, the forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army have critically low combat effectiveness.
The command of the enemy’s "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping has concentrated all its forces on the adjacent directions—Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Kostyantynivka—which indicates preparations for an offensive operation.
The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army is attempting to capture the Shevchenko–Burlatske–Pryvilne–Vilne Pole area to secure the flank for a further breakthrough of the 36th Combined Arms Army towards Komar and Odradne. The division’s forward units have captured Burlatske but are engaged in fighting for Pryvilne without significant progress towards Vilne Pole. The enemy is attempting to bypass the village from the north, attacking between Burlatske and Pryvilne, and has achieved some advance in that area.
The command of the enemy’s "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping has so far been unable to break through to the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway with its current forces. The situation is further complicated by the fact that three brigades from its formation are engaged in intense battles in the Novopavlivka direction to block the "Khortytsia" OSG which is defending along the Preobrazhenka–Rozlyv line from the south. This explains why the command of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping has withdrawn some forces from the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies into reserve (up to a brigade) and is attempting to break through northward with only part of its forces. The intensity of attacks is maintained due to the presence of the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades within the formation.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 91 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted to advance towards Bochkovе and Krasne Pershe but was repelled.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted an assault near Zahryzove, but Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the attack.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked 13 times near Novolyubivka, Ivanivka, and Yampolivka.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian units repelled three enemy assaults near Chasiv Yar, as well as towards Stupochky and Predtechyne, inflicting losses on the enemy.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked 13 times, concentrating their main offensive efforts near Krymske and Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, occupation forces attempted to break through the defense 19 times near Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Promin, Dachenske, Preobrazhenka, Kotlyne, Ulakly, and Andriivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked seven times near Konstyantynopil, Burlatske, and Skudne.
On the Huliaypole direction, the invaders attempted an offensive towards Pryvilne but were repelled. Airstrikes targeted Zaliznychne, Novopil, and Chervona Krynytsia.
On the Orikhiv Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks near Stepove and Nesteryanka. Airstrikes targeted Omelnyk and Yehorivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions three times.
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" OTG repelled 29 enemy attacks. Additionally, the enemy conducted 13 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Syzran and Novoshakhtinsk oil refineries.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operates near Malaya Loknia, Zhuravka, and Basivka; the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps is engages in Pogrebki; the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is in Nikolskiy; the 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment is near Martynovka.
The 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Zakhidne.
The 381st Artillery Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate near Shcherbynivka. In the Toretsk area, at least two battalions of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and up to two tank companies of the 163rd Tank Regiment have been engaged in battle. A battalion of the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division has moved to the line of combat engagement, with reconnaissance and assault companies of the regiment actively operating in the same direction.
On the Vozdvyzhenka–Tarasivka direction, up to two battalions of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division have been spotted, with the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment also moving in this direction. The engagement of a battalion of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division is expected either in the direction of Yelyzavetivka or toward the road interchange on the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway.
The 14th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Konstyantynopil, while the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps is engaged near Yelyzavetivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman;
In preparation for the capture of Kupyansk, the enemy needs to expand the area of access to the Oskil River. To achieve this, in the near future, it will intensify operations not only along the river but also on the flanks of its sector by introducing the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, part of the forces of the 47th Tank Division, and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army into the operation.
Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing "Khortytsia" OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
The command of the enemy’s "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will attempt to organize a breakthrough toward Komar on the Huliaypole direction in the near future and advance into the operational rear of "Khortytsia" OSG which is engaged in heavy defensive battles on the Novopavlivka direction.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 04.03.25
Personnel - almost 879,410 (+1,340);
Tanks – 10,255 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 21,198 (+8);
Artillery systems – 24,064 (+45);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,306 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,094 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 39,428 (+101);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 27,741 (+86);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,065 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of March 4, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 99 Shahed-type strike UAVs and decoy drones. As of 9:00 AM, 65 strike UAVs were confirmed shot down. 32 enemy decoy drones were lost locationally (without negative consequences). The attack affected Odesa, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts.
On the evening of March 3, the Russian army attacked Odesa with strike drones, causing disruptions in three boiler plants, damage to private homes and a business center. Four Odesa residents were injured. A DTEK energy facility was damaged.
In Sumy, explosions were heard during the night of March 4. Some areas of the city experienced power outages, and later it was confirmed that an enemy drone struck a children's medical facility.
In the outskirts of Kherson, in the village of Antonivka, at around 9:00 AM, a 71-year-old woman was wounded as a result of morning shelling.
On the morning of March 4, Russian invaders attacked the Dnipro district of Kherson with a drone, injuring a 67-year-old man. The wounded man is a pump station operator and was attacked while inspecting water supply facilities in the district. He is in serious condition.
The Russian army struck Kozacha Lopan, a border village in Kharkiv Oblast, with three aerial bombs. A man was injured, and houses were destroyed or damaged.
In Kherson Oblast, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 229 children have been affected by Russian aggression: 39 killed, 190 injured.
The latest Russian missile strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have significantly increased the risk to the stability of power supply to nuclear power plants, according to Ukraine's statement at an IAEA Board of Governors meeting. IAEA experts confirmed severe damage to electrical substations critical for nuclear safety.