Russia's war on Ukraine. 04.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward the northeastern outskirts of Leonidovo and the northern outskirts of Alexandria. Fighting continues near Viktorovka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Kruglenkoe, and Kurilovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces launched an offensive near Vovchansk but failed.
Units of the "Kharkiv" Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) counterattacked four times near Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Zapadne, Dvorichna, Zahryzove, Lozova, Nadiia, and Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces are attempting to cross the Zherebets River and advance toward Ivanivka, attacking near Makiivka, Terny, Cherneshchyna, Hryhorivka, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Stupochky.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near the refractory materials factory.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces launched offensives within Toretsk and near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and New York but were unsuccessful.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Novohrodivka along the T0515 highway from Pokrovsk to Novotroitske, northeast of Shevchenkove, reaching Zvirove; northwest of Vozdvyzhenka, north of Vovkove, toward Nadezhdynka; and launched attacks near Pokrovsk in the areas of Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Shevchenkove, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirove, Solone, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, and Novovasylivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces are engaged in battles for Slovyanka, advanced south of Rozlyv, toward Andriivka, and attacked near Kurakhove in the areas of Petropavlivka, Shevchenkove, Dachne, Yantarne, and Konstyantynopil.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, and Novosilka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces periodically conduct counterattacks near Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohirya and Novoandriivka.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have not been able to fully seize the initiative in Kursk Oblast.
On the Kharkiv direction, enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups primarily operate during adverse weather conditions in the border areas of northern Ukraine, supported by unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery. The level of training of their personnel is noticeably lower.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces predominantly deploy infantry groups of 2 to 20 soldiers during bad weather, increase the use of unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with fiber-optic cables, enhance them, and extend the operational range of such UAVs (currently exceeding 10 kilometers).
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are primarily focused on disrupting the logistical routes of the Defense Forces that supply troops in the directions of Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 148 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were seven enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions near Kucherivka, Synkivka, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 11 attacks, attempting to advance near Nadiia, Makiivka, Hryhorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Yampolivka, and toward Cherneshchyna and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked twice near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 10 engagements were recorded near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and toward Predtechyne and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out seven attacks near Dyliivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 40 Russian assault and offensive actions near Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Novoolenivka, Novovasylivka, Ukrainka, Lysivka, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Zvirove, Solone, Kotlyne, and Pokrovsk.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks near Petropavlivka, Sribne, Kurakhove, and Shevchenko.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 11 attacks on Ukrainian positions near Yantarne and toward Konstyantynopil and Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one enemy attack near Novoandriivka. Enemy aviation was active in the area.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully launched two assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions.
In the operational zone near Kursk, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 enemy attacks. Additionally, the enemy launched three missile strikes and 10 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
In Kursk Oblast, combat operations are being conducted by the "Tiger" and "Anvar" BARS units as well as the "Veterans" reconnaissance and assault brigade.
Units of the 7th Military Base of the 49th Combined Arms Army carry out combat operations near Chasiv Yar.
On the Orikhiv direction, combat operations are being conducted by the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army—the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 04.01.25
Personnel - almost 794,760 (+1,510);
Tanks 9,679 (+2);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,093 (+23);
Artillery systems – 21,555 (+3);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,257 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,843 (+73);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,356 (+107);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,006 (+3)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of January 4, the enemy launched 81 strike UAVs. Air defense forces shot down 34 enemy drones, while 47 drones were "locationally lost." The downed UAVs caused damage in Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast, damaging private homes. Civilians were injured. During the current day (from 11:00 to 20:00), air defense forces downed 14 Russian UAVs, while 16 decoy drones were locationally lost.
In Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on the night of January 4, the enemy targeted a fire station. According to local authorities, the enemy struck the city with heavy artillery, Grad rocket launchers, and a kamikaze drone.
As a result of morning drone attacks by the Russians on January 4 in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, four people were injured. By 17:00, six people had been affected by such attacks in Antonivka.
At 10:50, the occupiers struck the village of Kivsharivka in Kupiansk District. As a result of the strike by the Russian army, a 74-year-old civilian man died from fatal injuries.
On January 4, the enemy launched an airstrike using a guided aerial bomb on the Svesa community in Shostka District. The bomb hit a residential multi-story building, destroying a section from the fifth to the first floor of the five-story building. Ten people were injured, including two children. People may still be trapped under the rubble.
During the day on January 4, the enemy attacked Nikopol with artillery. Three people were injured. A 71-year-old man was hospitalized in moderate condition. Private houses and a utility building were damaged.
In Mykolaiv Oblast, as of January 4, 110 tons of oil have been pumped out of the Southern Buh River. The oil spilled into the river after a Russian drone damaged a reservoir at an agricultural enterprise on December 28. The Ministry of Environmental Protection reported environmental damage estimated at 45 billion hryvnias.
According to the National Resistance Center, Russians are actively preparing for another round of illegal elections in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine during the Unified Voting Day. To ensure "effectiveness," they are launching a chatbot to help "voters" cast their vote for the desired candidate or file a complaint. The Center reminded that these illegal elections are planned for September 14, 2025, and September 20, 2026, aiming to increase the number of "representatives" from these territories in the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
In temporarily occupied Sevastopol, a "regional emergency regime" has been declared due to numerous oil spills on beaches caused by the December 15, 2024, accident involving Russian oil tankers in the Kerch Strait.