Russia's war on Ukraine. 03.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 8 assaults near Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 13 enemy attacks, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling assaults near Pishchane, Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, Zelenyi Hai, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 14 attacks, attempting to penetrate defenses near Hrekivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Siversk direction, the enemy conducted 7 offensive actions around Ivano-Dariivka and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked once near Predtechyne. On the Toretsk direction, with air support, the enemy launched 8 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, most targeting Toretsk.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 23 enemy offensives toward Mykolaivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Sukhyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 51 attacks, with the enemy focusing efforts on advancing in areas near Illinka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Hostre, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Kreminna Balka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 12 assaults near Trudove and Maksymivka. Actively employing aviation, the enemy attacked in the area of Novoandriivka, Robotyne, and Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv direction.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the areas of Kozachi Laheri, Dnipryany, and Kozatskyi Island, with the enemy achieving no success.

General conclusion:

• After capturing Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, and Bohoyavlenka, the occupiers have no need to continue frontal assaults in the Kurakhove direction. The enemy has now gained the operational capability to directly attack Velyka Novosilka without having to break through Makarivka, allowing them to approach the rear of Ukrainian Defense Forces units effectively defending Katerynivka and Antonivka. An alternative approach is to advance directly on Kurakhove from the north, south, and west, as the enemy can now push toward Konstyantynopil, located on the Zaporizhzhia-Kurakhove highway.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 173 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, the "Siversk" OTG advanced in the wooded area north of Pogrebki and counterattacked near Novoivanovka and Kamyshovka.

• Russian forces launched attacks southeast of Korenevo near Daryino, Leonidovo, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, and Plekhovo.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk and close to Hlyboke.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops captured Pershotravneve, advanced to the northern edge of Zahryzove, and approached Vyshneve, continuing attacks near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, and Lozova.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance southwest from Nevske and northwest and east from Terny, with attacks near Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and around the Serebriansk Forest.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka and Ivano-Dariivka. The enemy launched an X-38 air-to-ground missile strike on a bridge near Zakytne.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive around Chasiv Yar and toward Predtechyne and Stupochky but made no advances.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces maintained their assault around Toretsk, advancing toward Shcherbynivka and Sukha Balka but with no success. The enemy, however, did advance near Nelipivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced toward Novooleksiivka, reaching the outskirts of Hryhorivka, and continued offensives around Myrolyubivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Mykolaivka, Sukhyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Vyshneve, Hryhorivka, and Petrivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces made minor advances north of Kurakhove, northwest of Voznesenka, near Novoselydivka, up to Voznesenka, and close to Oleksandropil, Ostrivske, Illinets, Stepanivka, Maksymilianivka, and Pobieda. They continued assaults near Sontsivka, Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Hostre, Kurakhivka, Vovchenka, Illinka, Ostrivske, Maksymilianivka, and toward Dalnie.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces consolidated positions in Trudove and Yasna Polyana, advanced north and east of Novoukraiinka, reached the outskirts of Maksymivka, and approached Rozlyv, with further offensives near Yasna Polyana, Shakhtarske, Maksymivka, Trudove, toward Uspenivka, and near Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, localized fighting continued near Nesterianka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates on the Kurakhove direction. The 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near Katerynivka.

• The 49th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army is active near Mala Tokmachka.

• Russian forces have deployed 7,000 North Korean military personnel to unspecified areas near the border with Ukraine. The contingent is equipped with 60-mm mortars, AK-12 assault rifles, RPK/PKM machine guns, SVD/SVCh sniper rifles, "Phoenix" anti-tank guided missiles, RPG-7 anti-tank rocket launchers, as well as some night vision devices, thermal imagers, and other optical equipment.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.11.24  

Personnel - almost 699,090 (+1,410); 

Tanks 9,182 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,523 (+36); 

Artillery systems – 20,086 (+10);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,244 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 994 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,160 (+46);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,187 (+70);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,629 (+1)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Russian Federation has attacked Ukraine with 900 bombs and 500 Shahed drones over the past seven days. Besides drones and bombs, Russia has also launched 30 missiles. Most of these strikes targeted civilian facilities and critical infrastructure.

• Overnight on November 3, Russia launched 96 strike UAVs and an X-59/69 missile at Ukraine. Air defense forces confirmed the interception of the missile and 66 drones. Another 27 enemy drones were lost in local tracking, and one flew into Belarus. As of 9:30 a.m., two strike UAVs remained airborne, with combat operations ongoing.

• On the night of November 3, Russian forces conducted another drone attack on Kyiv. Reports indicated debris and fires in two city districts, though a fire report in a third area was not confirmed. No injuries were reported. One of the Kyiv National University Buildings was damaged.

• In five districts of Kyiv Oblast, there was minor damage due to the downing of Russian targets overnight on November 3. There were no impacts on critical or residential infrastructure, nor any casualties. The alert in Kyiv Oblast lasted 11 hours.

• Around 11 a.m., Russian forces attacked Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast, striking an ambulance team. A driver and paramedic were injured while on the street during the shelling.

• As a result of shelling in Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on November 3, private homes, an administrative building of a sanatorium, and power lines were damaged.

• As a result of Russian KAB strikes on five villges in the Zolochiv community of Bohodukhiv district in Kharkiv Oblast, homes, a sewage pumping station, and power networks were damaged.

• On November 2, Russian aggression in Kherson Oblast resulted in one fatality and 10 injuries, including three children. Russian forces struck educational institutions, a library, a church, a post office, and stores, damaging five apartment buildings and 14 private homes in residential areas. The attack also damaged a gas pipeline, garages, and private vehicles.

• In the past day, Russian forces conducted 41 attacks with various types of weaponry on border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts, resulting in a total of 130 explosions and some property damage.