Russia's war on Ukraine. 03.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) units launched a missile strike on the concentration area of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in the village of Ivanovskoe and are holding back the enemy’s advance near Pogrebki.
Russian forces attempted to advance near Makhnovka and attacked wooded areas in the Sudzha district near Leonidovo and Kurilovka. The Russian military command has deployed North Korean units to positions near Ulanok, Fanaseevka, and Cherkasskya Konopelka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Zapadne, Dvorichna, Zahryzove, Lozova, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Pershotravneve, Kopanka, Zelenyi Hai, Nadiia, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Novoserhiyivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces are attempting to cross the Zherebets River and advance through fields west of Ivanivka. They have advanced on the southern outskirts of Terny and attacked near Makiivka, Ivanivka, Yampolivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Torske, Dibrova, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
On the Siversk direction, the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army advanced to the center of Bilohorivka. The enemy attacked in the area of Serebrianka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and near the refractory materials plant. They attacked near Hryhorivka, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora. The enemy is preparing to storm the refractory materials plant and is conducting airstrikes on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions there.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northwestern and western outskirts of Toretsk, occupying approximately 65% of the city. They advanced to Vologodska, 3rd Hirskyi, and Kachalova Streets. UAV strikes by the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army on Ukrainian Defense Forces’ armored vehicles near Toretsk enabled the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army to advance in the area. The enemy attacked near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Leonidivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured Vozdvyzhenka and Novovasylivka, advanced west of Zelene, north of Novotroitske, and toward Udachne along the T0406 Pokrovsk–Mezhova road. They intensified their offensive east of Myrnohrad and are attacking and advancing south of the T0406 road in the area of Solone, Vovkove, and Pishchane. Fighting continued near Vozdvyzhenka, Promin, Baranivka, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Zelenyi, Dachenske, Shevchenkove, Vovkove, Pishchane, Uspenivka, Solone, Kotlyne, Novovasylivka, and Novoolenivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced on the western outskirts of Sontsivka, east of Petropavlivka, and north of Konstyantynopolske. They are finalizing battles for the Kurakhivka Thermal Power Plant, advancing south and southwest of Kurakhove, west of Shevchenkove, and attacked near Dachne, Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, Yantarne, Konstyantynopolske, and Rozlyv. They are attempting to reach the N15 Kurakhove–Zaporizhzhia highway and have somewhat reduced the intensity of their assaults.
Forward units of Ukrainian Defense Forces still hold Dachne and part of the road to Yantarne but will likely be forced to completely withdraw from the Kurakhove bridgehead in the coming days.
The 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army actively attacked north of the Vovcha River, including in the Shevchenko (lower)–Andriivka, Sontsivka–Petropavlivka, and Zorya–Slovyanka directions. The enemy has made minimal progress after capturing Shevchenkove (lower), but their actions are tying down relatively combat-capable units of the “Donetsk” (OTG) in this area.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Velyka Novosilka, Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, Neskuchne, and Novosilka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the 70th Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army advanced north of Bilohirya but retreated to their initial positions. The enemy captured Luhivske and attacked near Novoandriivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Orikhiv and Kamianske.
General conclusion:
The “Siversk” OTG holds up to 585 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces have recaptured approximately 483 square kilometers (39% of the area initially controlled by Ukrainian Defense Forces at the start of the invasion).
The greatest threat across the entire southeastern flank of the front currently comes from the operational-tactical breakthrough of the enemy south of Pokrovsk.
The intensification of Russian attacks both southwest of Pokrovsk toward Udachne and east of Pokrovsk in the area of Vozdvyzhenka indicates the enemy's intention to encircle Pokrovsk from the western and eastern flanks rather than launch frontal assaults on the city from the south.
The command of the enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on the right flank of the 41st Combined Arms Army is organizing an offensive similar to that underway south of Pokrovsk, but the enemy command is constrained by a lack of time and resources. Attacks on this direction will be auxiliary in nature, aiming to stretch the forces of the “Donetsk” OTG that defend the city across the widest possible front. The success of enemy actions during attacks on the established defensive line of the “Donetsk” OTG raises questions about the combat readiness of Ukrainian units in this area.
Ukrainian Defense Forces have fully withdrawn from the territory of the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, effectively concluding the defense of Kurakhove.
The “Khortytsia” OSG units ensured an organized withdrawal of troops from the Kurakhove bridgehead through steadfast defense along the Sukhyi Yaly River line, particularly in the area of Zelenivka, while conducting fierce rearguard battles and preventing the encirclement of Ukrainian forces.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted to assault Ukrainian forces' positions near Vovchansk twice but was repelled.
On the Kupyansk direction, four attacks by the occupiers took place, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Zapadne, Dvorichna, and Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 16 attacks, attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Nadiia, Makiivka, Terny, Hryhorivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled one assault in the area of Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked four times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, six enemy attacks occurred near Toretsk, New York, and Shcherbynivka, with the majority targeting Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 38 enemy attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Pishchane, Shevchenkove, Uspenivka, Solone, and Novovasylivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 enemy attacks. The occupiers were most actively trying to advance near Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Shevchenkove, Dachne, and Kurakhove.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 24 assaults in the areas of Yantarne, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, and toward Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, and Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks near Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three attacks, with the enemy achieving no success.
On the Kursk direction, over the past day, there were 10 clashes and the enemy carried out six airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army is operating Near Kupyansk, the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army is active near Zahryzove, and the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Stepova Novoselivka.
The 1008th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps has been deployed into combat near Klishchiivka.
The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is advancing near Toretsk.
In Kurakhove, combat operations are being conducted by the 110th and 114th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army, while near Dachne, the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 346th Separate SOF Brigade are engaged.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group.
In the offensive zone of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the command has committed units of two brigades of the 41st Combined Arms Army—the 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. This indicates that they have chosen to reinforce the efforts of the 2nd Combined Arms Army’s operational zone using forces from the 41st Combined Arms Army to capture Pokrovsk. As part of this plan, the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, likely reinforced with separate units of the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will attempt a breakthrough toward Kotlyne to cut the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road, where they already have tactical success. South of the city, the 90th Tank Division will continue to develop its success. Its 80th and 239th Tank Regiments and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment will advance from the Novovasylivka–Novoelyzavetivka line toward Uspenivka and Nadezhdynka. The 1452nd or 1438th Territorial Troops Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army will attack near Vozdvyzhenka toward the interchange on the T0504 road.
The further development of the enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
The enemy may break through to the city from the south and then proceed as they did in Chasiv Yar—leveraging their superiority in forces and means to gradually push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the city district by district.
After a relatively deep envelopment of Pokrovsk from the south and the cutting of the road to Mezhova, the enemy may regroup part of their forces and return them to the 41st Combined Arms Army’s operational zone. This would enable them to conduct an envelopment of the city from the north, cutting the T0504 road toward Kostyantynivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions. The enemy's actual operational capabilities for conducting deep offensive operations appear questionable and are uneven between groupings of forces, which has already led to the downsizing of the strategic offensive operation to an offensive on two operational directions.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 03.01.25
Personnel - almost 793,250 (+1,080);
Tanks 9,677 (+1);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,070 (+14);
Artillery systems – 21,555 (+3);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,257 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,770 (+41);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 330 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,249 (+49);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of January 3, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 93 Shahed-type combat drones and various types of decoy UAVs. Air defense destroyed 60 Shaheds, but strikes hit private enterprises and apartment buildings in Donetsk Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast.
In Kyiv, fragments of UAVs caused fires in the Holosiivskyi and Darnytskyi districts during the night drone attack. No casualties were reported.
In Kyiv Oblast, one person died and four were injured, including a 16-year-old, due to a Russian air attack. The deceased was a truck driver who succumbed to shrapnel injuries.
In Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces shelled a four-story residential building during the night, destroying sections from the fourth to the second floor. Firefighters extinguished the fire, and there were no casualties.
On the evening of January 3, Russian occupiers attacked Chernihiv with ballistic missiles, resulting in three explosions on the city's outskirts. Two residential buildings were partially destroyed, and windows of seven other buildings were damaged. Preliminary reports indicate one fatality and four injuries, with search-and-rescue operations ongoing.
On January 3, Russian forces struck the single family home sector in Sloviansk, wounding four civilians, including a mother and a two-year-old boy. The attack partially destroyed 14 homes.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian attacks on Nikopol and Synelnykove injured two men aged 70 and 48. Four private houses, a vehicle, and power lines were also damaged.
Air raid sirens sounded throughout January 3 in Kyiv Oblast. By 7 p.m., five people were injured due to Russian drone strikes.
Russian forces conducted 52 attacks across ten communities in Sumy Oblast over the past day.
According to the Center for National Resistance, Russians transported 119 high school students from occupied Mariupol to St. Petersburg for "re-education" through propaganda meetings. The systematic removal of Ukrainian children aims to assimilate them into Russian identity and foster hostility toward Ukraine. Some children reportedly could not return home after these "school excursions" during holidays.
By late 2024, the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions for peace increased. Between October and December, this proportion rose from 32% to 38%. Despite this, 51% opposed any territorial concessions as of December (down from 58% in early October). The trend of growing willingness for concessions was observed across all regions, but the majority in each region remained firmly opposed, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Russia has involved up to 180,000 prisoners in its war against Ukraine. These individuals receive lower payments than regular Russian servicemen, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.