Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.11.24
Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted one assault near Vovchansk but was unsuccessful.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 5 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Petropavlivka, Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 16 attacks, attempting to advance toward Druzhelyubivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny, and into the Serebriansk Forest, where one engagement is still ongoing. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attempted 3 attacks near Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy conducted 3 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka but suffered losses and retreated.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 39 enemy assault and offensive actions toward Sukha Balka, Sukhyi Yar, Myrolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Novohrodivka, and Selydove. The highest concentration of enemy attacks was near Selydove and Promin, where 16 attacks were repelled by Ukrainian Defense Forces. The most intense situation remains on the Kurakhove direction, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 52 attacks on positions near Ostrivske, Illinka, Novoselydivka, Kreminna Balka, Novodmytrivka, Vovchenka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. The enemy was particularly active in attempting to advance in the areas of Antonivka, Novoselydivka, and Illinka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 4 assaults in the areas of Trudove and Maksymivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the operational situation remains without significant changes. The enemy conducted 4 unsuccessful assaults.
General conclusion:
The enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskil River and broke through to the river near Kruhlyakivka, creating conditions for further advancement toward Kupyansk by the forces of the 1st Tank Army and selected units from the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping. Forces from the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies significantly reduced the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River by eliminating its northern part near Makiivka and Nevske.
The "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping advanced in the direction of Bakhmut – Chasiv Yar, creating conditions for forming the northern flank of the Kostyantynivka salient to enable further advancement toward Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping continues its offensive with the 2nd, 41st, and 51st Combined Arms Armies toward Avdiivka – Pokrovsk and Avdiivka – Kurakhove, simultaneously launching an attack on Toretsk with parts of the 51st Combined Arms Army, thereby establishing the northern flank of the Kurakhove salient.
The main forces of the "Yug (South)" and "Vostok (Easte)" Operational Groupings have eliminated the Vuhledar bridgehead of the "Tavriya" OSG and are forming the southern flank of the Kurakhove bridgehead.
In the Eastern Operational Zone, the enemy has established three bridgeheads: Siversk, Kostyantynivka, and Kurakhove, but has not achieved its strategic objectives.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 145 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, the "Siversk" OTG advanced westward to the southwestern outskirts of Russkoe Porechie, continuing attacks near Novoivanovka and Plekhovo.
Russian forces advanced near Kremiannoe.
On the Kharkiv direction, the "Kharkiv" OTG captured a Russian position on Zernova Street in central Vovchansk. Russian forces continued attacks near Lyptsi, within Vovchansk, and near Vovchanski Khutory.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight advances in the western part of Petropavlivka and launched attacks near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Berestove, and Vyshneve.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy advanced on the northeastern outskirts of Terny, attacking near Druzhelyubivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Terny, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
On the Siversk direction, the Russian Aerospace Forces conduct daily airstrikes in support of the 3rd Combined Arms Army.
On the Kramatorsk direction, fighting continued on the flanks of Chasiv Yar and near Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy is engaged in battles for Oleksandropil and Katerynivka. The enemy's advance has slowed as some units rest and replenish personnel losses.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue advancing beyond Selydove and Vyshneve. Fighting persisted near Sukha Balka, Hrodivka, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Vyshneve.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced toward Kurakhove, further west to Novoselydivka, north of Vovchenka, and captured Stepanivka and Illinka. The situation on this axis remains complex, but the "Tavriya" OSG has prepared defensive lines and fortifications in Kurakhove.
Fighting continued near Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Kreminna Balka, Ostrivske, Vovchenka, and Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north and northeast from Novoukrainka, north from Bohoyavlenka, and in Trudove. Battles took place northward near Dalnie, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Trudove, Bohoyavlenka, Shakhtarske, and Novoukrainka.
On the Orikhiv direction, localized fighting continued near Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks on the eastern bank in Kherson Oblast.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a UAV airstrike on the "Podlet" radar system near Cape Tarkhankut.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The "Kair" unit of the 68th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army, operate in the areas of Yelyzavetivka and Pobieda, respectively. The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army, 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army, 14th Separate SOF Brigade, and the 200th Artillery Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army operate near Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, and Yasna Polyana.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.
To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.
The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.
In the near future, the "Tavriya" OSG is expected to fully withdraw from the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. The future defense of Kurakhove remains uncertain, as the critical defense hub that enabled the retention of territory north of the reservoir (the town of Hirnyk) was lost following the enemy's capture of Ukrainsk and breakthrough to Tsukuryne.
With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.11.24
Personnel - almost 697,680 (+1,270);
Tanks 9,170 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,487 (+17);
Artillery systems – 20,076 (+37);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,244 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 994 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,114 (+76);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 18,114 (+76);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,628 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Ukrainian Air Defense Forces confirmed the downing of 39 Russian drones overnight on the morning of November 2 in Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts. Another 21 drones were lost from tracking, and five drones returned to Russia. In total, the enemy launched an attack with an X-31P guided aviation missile and 71 strike drones.
In the early hours of November 2, debris from a downed drone caused a fire in a residential building in Kyiv’s Sviatoshynskyi district, injuring two people. Drone debris from a "Shahed" was also reported in Solomianskyi district within a residential area. In the Shevchenkivskyi district, fragments hit an office building, igniting one of its floors. Air raid sirens sounded in the city for over five hours.
Damage to a high-voltage transit line in Kyiv Oblast in the morning led to power outages in the capital, leaving parts of Holosiivskyi district without electricity. Another incident damaged distribution networks, causing additional outages in Bucha district.
On Saturday, an attack by enemy drones in Kyiv Oblast injured an 82-year-old woman, damaging eight private houses and an apartment in a multi-story building across four districts.
On Saturday evening, just four hours after an earlier drone threat ended, Russian forces resumed attacks against Ukraine.
This evening, the village of Ivanopillia in the Kostyantynivka community of Donetsk Oblast came under Russian artillery fire, killing a 60-year-old man and a 54-year-old woman.
On the evening of November 2, an explosion occurred in Dnipro district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring eight people, including two children, and damaging infrastructure.
Throughout October, Russia deployed 1,908 "Shaheds" against Ukraine, according to Foreign Ministry Head Andriy Sybiha. In comparison, September saw 1,331 "Shaheds," marking a 43% increase the following month.