Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian terrorists made 5 unsuccessful attempts to assault Ukrainian positions in the areas of Starytsya and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy launched 23 attacks in the areas of Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, and Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched 15 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Kramatorsk direction, 5 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and toward Stupochky ended in failure. On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers attempted 10 assaults in the areas of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. Enemy bombers were actively engaged.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction the enemy intensively attacks Ukrainian defenders, launching 22 assaults. The highest level of Russian activity persists in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Lisivka. On the Kurakhove direction, 21 combat engagements were recorded near Hirnyk, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy attempted to break through to Bohoyavlenka but was repelled. The enemy also became more active on the Orikhiv direction, launching three unsuccessful attacks near Novodanylivka and Maly Shcherbaky.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have significantly increased their grouping in Kursk Oblast, but they are still unable to use their numerical advantage in manpower to decisively displace the "Siversk" OTG from this region.
In September 2024, enemy troops from the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping captured 12 towns and villages in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions, covering a total area of 130 km².
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have increased the number of infantry attacks over the past 3-4 days and have resumed using armored vehicles.
While the enemy has previously focused on advancing toward Mykhailivka, they are now concentrating operations near Tsukuryne and Ukrainsk.
In the Sukhyi Yar area, the enemy executed 16 Ukrainian Defense Forces servicemen who had ceased resistance and surrendered.
The capture of Vuhledar by the enemy will not drastically change the course of offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces will not be able to rapidly advance or achieve significant operational breakthroughs immediately after the capture of Vuhledar.
Russian troops are amassing forces and equipment near Pryiutne in preparation for an assault.
The ratio of artillery shells expended by both sides has decreased from 8 to 1 in favor of Russian artillery in winter 2024 to 3 to 1 by early October 2024. On the Pokrovsk direction, this ratio dropped from 12 to 1 in favor of Russian forces to 2.5 to 1 after Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.
The reserves of weapons, combat, and special equipment for the Russian air defense forces consist primarily of 1970s technologies. The 75th GRAU arsenal of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, where air defense weapons are stored, is operating at full capacity but cannot increase the restoration of weapons and military equipment due to technological reasons. The stocks of surface-to-air missiles have not been assessed.
The Russian authorities plan to recruit around 100 individuals facing criminal charges from each of the 210 pre-trial detention centers in the Russian Federation (about 40% of this contingent) for military service.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 110 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction "Siversk" OTG continues to improve its positions on the hills above Kremyanoe, Sheptukhovka, and Kauchuk, has taken control of Komyshovka, and attacked the Krasnooktyabrskoe area. Part of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet was encircled near Kremyanoe.
Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put, Vesioloe, and Plekhovo, advancing southeast of Sudzha, near Borki, between the forested areas of Kucherov and Brodina gully.
On the Kharkiv direction, in the area of the Aggregate Producing Plant in Vovchansk, “Kharkiv" OTG units destroyed a detachment of the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment that was conducting a counterattack, attempting to regain positions at the plant.
Russian forces advanced slightly along the T2108 road (Soborna Street) west of the Vovchansk Aggregate Producing Plant but were halted. The enemy struck near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Starytsya, and Buhruvatka, advancing in the forest zone north of Zelene. The enemy mostly holds defensive positions along the Hlyboke-Lyptsi line, where they are fortifying their positions.
On the Kupyansk direction, the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade continues to hold Kruhlyakivka, though the enemy has advanced southward in the fields and east of the village.
The enemy is attempting to capture Vyshneve, continuing its offensive near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Hlushkivka, Kurylivka, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces recently made slight advances west and south of Makiivka. The enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Dibrova, Hryhorivka, the Serebriansk Forest, and Serebryanka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske, but unsuccessfully.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and attacked toward Stupochky.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked toward Chasiv Yar, strengthening their defense and preventing Russian forces from advancing east of Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Mayakovskoho Street in central Toretsk, carried out offensive actions near Toretsk, and close to Zalizne, Nelipivka, New York, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the 15th Separated Brigade of Operative Purpose of the National Guard holds its positions in Selydove. Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked toward Krutyi Yar.
Russian forces advanced on the southeastern outskirts of Tsukuryne and are attempting to encircle the village from the north and south. They advanced north of Mykolaivka, captured Krutyi Yar, and advanced west of Novohrodivka, north of Selydove, attacking near Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Mykolaivka, Lisivka, Selydove, Novohrodivka, Hirnyk, and Mykhailivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces carried out offensives near Heorhiivka, Kurakhove, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka.
UAV units of Ukrainian Defense Forces hinder the enemy's progress near Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, enemy forces from the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army, 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 29th Army, and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade captured Vuhledar. Russian forces continued advancing west of Vodyane, attacked near Zolota Nyva, and advanced 3 km from Prechystivka toward Zolota Nyva.
In Vuhledar, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade found itself in an extremely difficult tactical position, suffering from a shortage of supplies, with many wounded requiring evacuation, leading to a decision to withdraw from the city to a new defensive line northeast of the city. The brigade's main forces successfully executed the maneuver, avoiding encirclement. The brigade's losses are being clarified.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces carried out several unsuccessful local attacks near Mala Tokmachka, Maly Shcherbaky, and Novodanylivka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army is securing positions near Lukyantsi.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps are active near Katerynivka.
On the Prydniprovskiy direction, the 33rd BARS unit shells Ukrainian Defense Forces boats on the Dnipro River.
Possible operation situation developments:
The leadership of the counter-terrorist operation in Kursk Oblast will attempt to establish a decisive advantage in forces and assets on thus direction, achieve operational and tactical surprise, and launch a simultaneous offensive on designated sectors (most likely targeting the flanks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' "Sudzha" tactical group). The goal is rapid advancement to pre-determined lines and areas, which, if reached, would pose a real threat of encircling and defeating the "Siversk" OTG within Kursk Oblast.
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
The enemy's military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the "Vostok (East)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent "Tavriya" OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.10.24
Personnel - almost 655,560 (+1,130);
Tanks 8,887 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,579 (+32);
Artillery systems – 18,869 (+14);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,204 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 963 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,692 (+71);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,348 (+26);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,613 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 2, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 32 "Shahed" drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 11 drones, while four exited Ukrainian airspace toward Russia. Due to electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures, 10 drones were lost in northern and central Oblasts.
On the morning of October 2, Russian occupiers attacked Kharkiv and Derhachi in Kharkiv Oblast with guided bombs, causing fires and damage to garages. In Derhachi, five people, including a 14-year-old boy, suffered shrapnel injuries and acute stress reactions.
At dawn on October 2, Russian forces attacked port and border infrastructure in the Izmail district of Odesa Oblast with drones, causing a fire and damaging the "Orlivka" checkpoint. Two drivers were injured, one of them a Turkish citizen.
On October 2, Russian forces attacked a passenger bus in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, with a drone, killing a 69-year-old woman.
Russian occupiers struck the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast on the morning of October 2, hitting a hotel and injuring one person.
Two people were injured after an explosive device detonated in Antonivka, Kherson Oblast, when a woman picked up the object near a public transport stop.
In Ivano-Frankivsk, the need for military rehabilitation has increased nearly tenfold, with 40 soldiers receiving treatment daily, while nearly 400 need it, according to Mayor Ruslan Martsynkiv.
Due to a Russian strike on energy facilities in Sumy Oblast on the evening of October 1, over 86,000 power consumer points were disconnected in the Shostka district. As of the morning, over 82,000 consumers remain without power.
About 90% of Ukrainians do not plan to relocate during the fall-winter period of 2024, despite possible electricity supply issues, according to a survey by the Rating sociological group conducted from September 20 to 23. Of those planning to move, 10% intend to relocate: 4% within their Oblast, 3% within the country, and 2% abroad.
At the time of the above survey, 64% of Ukrainians had stable electricity supplies. Another 30% reported minor outages, while 4% faced frequent disruptions and 1% experienced constant blackouts. The situation is most critical in the eastern Oblasts, where 13% of respondents reported regular power outages.
Volodymir Saldo, the Russian-installed head of administration of the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, announced the conscription of Ukrainian citizens from the occupied territories into the Russian army, beginning October 1, 2024, and lasting until the end of the year. Saldo stated that conscripts would serve in units of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.