Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.05.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced south along Tsentralna Street toward the center of Bilovody, in the area between Basivka and Zhuravka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces are attempting to advance near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Stepova Novoselivka, attacked near Novovasylivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Nadiia, Novoyehorivka, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, Cherneshchyna, and Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Katerynivka and to Pivnichna Street in northern Torske, attacked near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, Ridkodub, Novomykhailivka, Kolodiazi, Novyi Myr, and Yampolivka, and attempted to build pontoon crossings over the Zherebets River.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Hryhorivka, attacked in the direction of Serebrianka and near Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Stupochky, attacked near Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, Andriivka, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk and in western Toretsk, north of Berezivka, to Nova Poltavka and north of Tarasivka, captured the "Novotoretska" mine, and attacked near Zoria, Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Krymske, Romanivka, Shcherbynivka, Leonidivka, Kalynove, Stara Mykolaivka, Hnativka, Oleksandropil, and Yelyzavetivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances along Skhidna Street in Udachne, attempted to advance north and northeast of Shevchenkove, and attacked near Malynivka, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Promin, Dachenske, Chunyshyne, and Kotlyne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced along the H15 highway from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia southeast of Bahatyr, attacked near Novoserhiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Murivka, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Bohdanivka, toward Oleksiivka, and near Konstyantynopil and Rozlyv.
The 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army is attempting to advance south of Uspenivka. The 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 29th Army assaults and advances southeast of Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army is fighting near Vesele. Russian forces continued toward Odradne, near Shevchenkove, Pryvilne, and Vilne Pole.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the direction of Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, and Kamianske.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have advanced in Sumy Oblast, near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
The intensity of fighting has increased on the Toretsk direction.
On the Kursk direction, the villages of Gornal and Oleshnia are in the grey zone; in the Tiotkino area, Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their bridgehead. Fighting in Kursk Oblast continues. To take full control of the grey zone along the international border, the enemy needs to commit the entire "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping (up to 92,000 personnel).
The enemy has captured 42 km² in Sumy Oblast, although the objective was 130 km². Fighting continues in the areas of Zhuravka, Basivka, Veselivka. Elements of the enemy’s 106th Airborne Division and 76th Air Assault Division have not achieved significant success.
The enemy’s command is forced to transfer troops from the Kursk direction to the priority Kupyansk and Kramatorsk directions, and the secondary Zaporizhzhia direction, but active actions by Ukrainian Defense Forces prevent this. The urgent need to redeploy the 106th Airborne Division and 76th Air Assault Division to the Kramatorsk direction, and the 40th, 810th Separate Marine Brigades and the 177th Separate Marines Regiment to the enemy’s "Dnepr" Operational Grouping, which currently cannot fulfill its operational tasks and requires reinforcement, explains the report by Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Gerasimov about the “liberation of Kursk Oblast”;
During the self-proclaimed ceasefire for May 9, the enemy may prioritize offensive operations in the Toretsk, Klishchiivka–Kurdyumivka, Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled two enemy attacks near Vovchansk and toward Novovasylivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted five offensive actions in the areas of Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 21 times in the areas of Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, and toward Hrekivka and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked toward Verkhnyokamianske and Hryhorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy assaults in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, and toward Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, three enemy attacks were repelled in the areas of Shcherbynivka, Druzhba, and toward Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked 52 times in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Vodyane Druhe, Oleksandropil, Malynivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Nadiivka, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Andriivka, as well as toward Pokrovsk, Romanivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, and Oleksiivka. Eleven clashes are still ongoing.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy made six attempts to break through Ukrainian defense in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Pryvilne, and Vilne Pole.
On the Huliaypole direction, the occupiers launched airstrikes on Zaliznychne.
On the Orikhiv direction, the invaders attempted to advance near Lobkove, Kamianske, and Stepove. The enemy carried out airstrikes on the areas of Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, and Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovske direction, one enemy attack was stopped. Meanwhile, the invaders carried out airstrikes on Kherson and Tyahynka.
On the Kursk direction, there were 31 clashes. The enemy carried out 13 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 15 ships, including 5 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 34 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out strikes on targets in the occupied Crimea.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
During the course of the operation in Kursk Oblast, the "Siversk" Operational-Tactical Group (OTG), taking into account the support and logistics units operating from Sumy Oblast, numbered up to 21,000 personnel. On the Russian side – up to 120,000. Currently, up to 30,000 enemy personnel are operating in Kursk Oblast and the border areas of Sumy Oblast, with an additional 27,000 concentrated further inland. Up to 35,000 personnel from the enemy's "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping are concentrated in Belgorod Oblast, mainly in the area of Ukrainian Defense Forces’ incursion near Demidovka, Popovka, and Grafovka.
The 4th Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Hornal, while the main forces of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment are engaged near Nove on the Lyman direction.
The 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps and the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet advance in the direction of Sumy. The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operates in Bilovody.
The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active near Tarasivka; the 150th Motorized Rifle Division is engaged near Romanivka; the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army fights near Nelipivka.
The 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army operates near Mala Tokmachka.
In May, the arrival of four additional regiments of the DPRK Armed Forces is expected. They will be deployed in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts with the task of establishing a continuous control zone along the international border jointly with Russian forces.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.
In Sumy Oblast, key enemy objectives that could provide stability to a buffer zone may include the heights between Yunakivka and Khrapivshchyna, the wooded area to the northeast of Sumy from Radkivka to Mohrytsya, and the Psel River. Based on this, the enemy’s operational tasks in this direction may include taking control of the area of Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka, seizing at least the eastern part of the wooded area west of Mohrytsya, and reaching the line of Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya along the Psel River. The enemy may also attempt to break through from the border toward Vorozhba and Bilopillya and cut off the operational lateral route between Sumy and Novhorod-Siverskyi. The implementation of such a plan would require the enemy command to covertly deploy a strike force in the area of Tiotkino.
A replacement of the airborne forces and naval infantry units with troops of the 14th and 44th Army Corps is expected soon. The highly mobile component of the Russian Armed Forces will be redeployed to Donbas or to Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
On the Kupyansk direction, the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will abandon active operations on its flanks and resume the offensive along the Svatove–Kupyansk road in the offensive zone of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army. To this end, it is concentrating forces in the area of Kyslivka – Zatyshne – Nova Tarasivka – Tabaiivka and has already redeployed one motorized rifle regiment each from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army to the Lyman direction. The enemy will demonstrate readiness to launch a frontal push against the "Khortytsia" OSG, thereby attempting to mislead the command of "Khortytsia" OSG regarding the true intent of its actions, aiming to complicate the maneuvering of OSG reserves simultaneously across two operational zones — in front of both the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Tank Army of the enemy.
On the Lyman direction, the command of the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will exert efforts to collapse the defense of "Khortytsia" OSG in front of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army. To achieve this, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army will attempt at any cost to break through in a northwesterly direction from its bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River to link up with the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army. The enemy will attempt to advance toward Karlivka from Nove and toward Drobysheve from Kolodyazi, seeking to reach and entrench along the Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve line, while simultaneously intensifying its offensive near Torske and advancing on Lyman from the east. The forward elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army will, in the near future, attempt to simultaneously force the Chornyi Zherebets River as close as possible to Zarichne and break through to its eastern part on the opposite bank of the river. The enemy command’s operational intent includes using the Oskil River as a flank cover for a further advance on Lyman and Sloviansk, as evidenced by intensive attacks from the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River in a northwesterly direction toward Borova and the shift of the main strike axis of the 20th Combined Arms Army from Lyman to Borova.
The command of the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army on the Siversk direction will create favorable conditions for the further seizure of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration during the summer campaign. For this, its forces will attempt to break through to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka, and from the southeast direction—toward Siversk.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army, in particular, may soon change the direction of their main strike and shift it to the north of Chasiv Yar, launching an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road along the Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya directions, which would allow them to break through to the forward approaches of Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat to the “Siversk” Operational Tactical Grouping (OTG) of Ukrainian Defense Forces by executing a deep flanking maneuver on its right flank. If the enemy manages to achieve operational surprise in these directions and advance to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka sector on the Lyman direction could radically deteriorate for the “Khortytsia” OSG.
The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will continue its offensive on the Toretsk direction with two tactical groups — one in the Toretsk area (main group), and another in the Vozdvyzhenka area (group on a secondary direction). The first group will attempt a breakthrough toward Pleshchiivka, bypassing the Kleban-Byk reservoir from the east; the second will push toward the Novoolenivka area, bypassing the reservoir from the west along the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway. The enemy will attempt to outflank the prepared “Khortytsia” OSG defenses from the east, along lines based on a cascade of small reservoirs and ponds along the Bychok River, generally in the Toretsk–Kostyantynivka direction, aiming to reach the intermediate line Pleshchiivka–Bila Hora. Its forward units will attempt to advance through Shcherbynivka toward Pleshchiivka and along the Dachne–Dyliivka railway. In the near future, the enemy will focus on seizing Shcherbynivka and Novospaske. If unsuccessful, the main axis of the attack may shift to the zone of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division near Vozdvyzhenka, or the enemy may focus on dismantling the “Khortytsia” OSG’s defenses along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal, advancing from south to north.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
In the near future, the command of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will begin regrouping forces and assets in the operational zones of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and reinforce them with additional troops from other directions.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 02.05.25
Personnel - almost 954,300 (+1,110);
Tanks – 10,741 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 22,369 (+5);
Artillery systems – 27,186 (+50);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,375 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,152 (+4);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 46,882 (+132);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 335 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 34,539 (+138);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,196 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
From 21:30 on May 1, the enemy attacked Ukraine with 150 strike UAVs and other types of decoy drones. As of 08:00, 64 strike UAVs had been confirmed shot down. Sixty-two enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (without negative consequences). As a result of the enemy attack, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast were affected.
At night, the aggressor attacked the Sloviansk community of Synelnykivskyi District in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with UAVs. Preliminary reports indicate two men were injured. Fires broke out at two enterprises.
At night, the locomotive repair plant of the state railway monopoly "Ukrzaliznytsia" in Zaporizhzhia suffered a massive attack. The company emphasized that it is a purely civilian enterprise specializing in the repair of passenger electric locomotives.
In the evening of May 1, Russian occupation forces carried out at least 10 strikes on Zaporizhzhia. Fires broke out in the city, and 31 people were injured.
Around 2:20 on May 2, a Russian strike UAV hit the village of Mykolaivka Persha in the Lozivskyi District of Kharkiv Oblast. As a result of the attack, private homes were damaged, and an outbuilding was destroyed. A 61-year-old woman was injured.
The company "Avtomagistral-Pivden," which is involved in road construction and the building of fortifications, reported an attack on its production base in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Six pieces of equipment used for repairing front-line roads were completely destroyed. The buildings housing the dining facility and employee accommodations were damaged. Two base workers were injured; one was taken to the hospital.
On May 2, Russian forces attacked the central part of Kherson with a UAV, injuring two men aged 52 and 60.
On May 2, Russian forces shelled the Nikopol District in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery and kamikaze drones; four people were injured.
In the evening of May 2, Russian forces bombarded Kupiansk from the air for 20 minutes. The body of a deceased man was recovered from the rubble of a house, and rescuers are attempting to reach another man.
Ukraine returned six children from territories temporarily occupied by Russia. Among them were a brother and sister from a family that had previously failed to evacuate, and a girl whom Russians had threatened to take from her mother if she did not attend a Russian school.
The leadership of Donetsk Oblast made a decision on the forced evacuation of all children from the villages of Shakhove and Toretske, located 15–20 km from the line of combat contact.
April was a record month in Kharkiv in terms of the scale of destruction from Russian shelling, according to the mayor. A total of 533 buildings were damaged, with more than 10,500 windows shattered. One hundred forty-seven roofs were damaged, 109 of which have been repaired.
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