Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Guevo, Sverdlivkovo, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Kurylivka, and in Makhnovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk but advanced to the northern outskirts of Zelene.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Orlyanka and west of Makiivka, continued fighting for Dvorichna, and attacked near Topoli, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, near Hlushkivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Bohuslavka, Pishchane, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, and in the direction of Novomykhailivka. The 84th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Combined Arms Army is fighting for Novoyehorivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Dvorichna, holding positions on the northern and western outskirts of Novomlynsk and on the northern outskirts of Zapadne.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance west of Terny, Ivanivka, and Novosadove, attacking near Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, in the direction of Zelena Dolyna, and in the area of Torske.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Spirne. Difficult terrain and Ukrainian defenses are slowing down the enemy’s advance in Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Chasiv Yar, attacking near the "Block-9" mine, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the "Pivnichnyi" residential district.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the northern part of Toretsk.
The 101st Rifle Regiment of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is engaged in battles for Krymske. The enemy attacked near Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances northwest of Kotlyne and to the northern outskirts of Nadiivka, attacking Pokrovsk, Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, near Sribne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Zvirove, Novooleksandrivka, and Kotlyarivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced south of Rozlyv, attacking in the area of Dachne, Ulakly, Andriivka, Konstyantynopil, Rozdolne, and Zelenivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces captured Velyka Novosilka, advanced in the area of Novosilka and Novopil, and moved forward near Olhivske, Stepanivka, Dorozhnyanka, and Zahirne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced south of Mala Tokmachka, near Novodanylivka, Shcherbaky, and Nesteryanka.
General conclusion:
Russian forces operating on the Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Toretsk directions have the tactical reserves necessary for conducting rotations.
On the Toretsk direction, the majority of troops consist of mobilized citizens from Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. However, in areas where advances are taking place, well-trained and well-equipped assault groups are leading the offensive.
The assault on Kurilovka, even if successful, is unlikely to lead to a breakthrough in Ukrainian defenses, as there is no one available to reinforce the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet. The units on its flanks are also exhausted from battles for Guevo and Makhnovka.
The distance from Dvorichna to Velykyi Burluk is about 23 kilometers. To break through toward Velykyi Burluk and ensure logistics, the Russian "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping would require 60,000–80,000 servicemen, which is approximately the total number of forces currently engaged in combat on the Kupyansk and Borova directions.
Russian forces were supposed to reach Borova by February 2025, but the current situation suggests this will not happen before late March.
With the loss of the refractory materials plant in Chasiv Yar by Ukrainian Defense Forces, the battle for the city has entered its final stage. The enemy has captured all northern districts and, despite heavy losses, is slowly advancing in the south and southwest. The city is expected to be occupied by mid-February. The Kramatorsk direction will become a high priority for the enemy's command.
According to preliminary assessments, the command of the Russian "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping is concentrating forces for an assault on Pokrovsk. It is expected to involve part of the forces from the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. If the assault does not yield results within the first two weeks, the Pokrovsk direction will temporarily become secondary, with efforts shifting toward an assault on Kramatorsk. To support this, a troop regrouping from the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Huliaypole directions will be conducted.
Near Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have completed the formation of a continuous defensive line reinforced with combat-ready troops. Therefore, the enemy is expected to launch a frontal assault, as they lack time for maneuvering or regrouping.
Enemy forces have advanced from the north to the village of Andriivka. After capturing it, they may attempt to attack Kostyantynivka and try to cut off Ukrainian units in the salient from Ulakly to Dachne. Given the redeployment of part of the enemy’s forces to Pokrovsk and the significant combat attrition of the remaining units due to prolonged fighting, the Ukrainian bridgehead between the Vovcha and Sukhyi Yaly rivers could be eliminated between mid-February and mid-March. However, no further westward advance of the aggressor from this direction should be expected, as they lack the forces for a large-scale operation. The enemy will likely limit itself to reaching the Mokri Yaly River, where it will transition to defensive operations.
Velyka Novosilka is the last major settlement in Donetsk Oblast on the Vremivka direction. Its loss is forcing units of "Khortytsia" OSG to withdraw 9–15 kilometers north–northwest to a fortified line along Komyshuvakha–Shevchenko–Dniproenerhiya. The withdrawal has already begun.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 110 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were 17 Russian attacks, which Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled in the areas of Topoli, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, Zahryzove, and Lozova.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 15 times, attempting to advance near Novoyehorivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, and in the direction of Novomykhailivka.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled 4 enemy attacks near Verkhnokamianske and Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 7 engagements were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 7 attacks in the areas of Toretsk and Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 40 Russian assault and offensive actions in the areas of Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, and Dachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the invaders carried out 2 attacks on Ukrainian positions. The enemy attempted to advance in the direction of Konstyantynopil and Rozlyv.
On the Huliaypole direction, the aggressor made 2 attempts to dislodge the Defense Forces from their positions in the area of Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, there were 2 engagements in the area of Shcherbaky and Nesteryanka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders unsuccessfully attempted to storm Ukrainian positions once.
On the Kursk direction, units of the "Siversk" OTG repelled 8 attacks by Russian invaders. The enemy carried out 19 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The BARS "Kursk" unit operates in the Korenevo district.
The 1065th Artillery Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, the "Pyatnashka" Battalion, the 88th Volunteer Brigade "Espanola," and the "Sever-V" Brigade operate near Chasiv Yar.
The 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army operates near Velyka Novosilka.
The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army operates on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue "Khortytsia" OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka. More and more enemy units are being withdrawn and redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds, and resources. The plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible for the same reason.
In the near future, the command of the 6th Combined Arms Army will attempt to expand its tactical bridgehead on the Oskil River in the area of Dvorichna by pushing forward units of the "Khortytsia" OSG away from the Kupyansk–Dvorichna road and completely driving them out of Dvorichna.
If the "Khortytsia" OSG command manages to contain the enemy's bridgehead in the Dvorichna area and block its attempts to cross the Oskil River with significant forces, then the command of the enemy’s "Sever (North)" and "Zapad (West)" Operational Groupings will be unable to develop an offensive on Kupyansk.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will attempt to leverage tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk. For this purpose, the intensity of combat operations southwest of Toretsk will be increased.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
The most likely course of enemy actions in the operational zone of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping may involve the capture of the Novodarivka–Novopil–Zelene Pole–Novosilka area, followed by an attempted breakthrough toward Bahatyr and Komar. To accomplish this, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and part of the forces of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (whose main forces operate in Kursk Oblast) will be redeployed from the right flank of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army. The 36th Combined Arms Army will be fully deployed east of the Mokri Yaly River and reinforced with the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be moved into reserve and later used to develop the offensive toward Komar and Bahatyr. Securing this initial objective will enable the command of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to create highly favorable conditions for an offensive by the 35th Combined Arms Army on the Huliaypole direction. A breakthrough to Bahatyr and Komar would allow the enemy to achieve operational success across the entire Novopavlivka direction.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 02.02.25
Personnel - almost 840,360 (+1,320);
Tanks 9,908 (+6);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,667 (+14);
Artillery systems – 22,538 (+45);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,267 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,050 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 35,709 (+80);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 23,793 (+99);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During January 2025, Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down 2,219 drones of various types and 45 missiles used by Russia to attack Ukrainian territory.
Since the evening of February 1, Russian occupiers have launched 55 UAVs at Ukraine; 40 drones were destroyed, while 13 were lost in terms of location. At the same time, Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast were affected by the enemy attack.
In Sumy Oblast, a large fire broke out at an infrastructure facility following an enemy strike. As of 10 a.m., it was extinguished. No people were injured.
On the night of February 2, Russian occupation forces carried out a drone strike on the Slobidskyi district of Kharkiv. As a result of the attack, a large fire broke out on the premises of a civilian enterprise. The fire was extinguished in the morning of February 2.
Russian forces attacked a minibus with a UAV in Kherson, injuring five people, including two children. All the injured were taken to medical facilities.
In the Kryvyi Rih district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Russian strike left residents of the Zelenodolsk community without heating.
On February 2, at around 16:20, the Russians launched an airstrike on Kherson. As of 17:15, two injured people were reported, and later, a third seriously wounded person was rescued from the rubble. There is significant destruction of civilian infrastructure.
As of the evening of February 2, a Russian strike on the Novopavlivka community in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured one man. In Nikopol, there is significant destruction from shelling.
The number of people killed in the enemy strike on a residential building in Poltava on February 1 has risen to 14, including two children. Twenty people were injured. Debris removal has now been completed.
In Izium on February 2, four people were injured after detonating an explosive device.