Russia's war on Ukraine. 02.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG) units captured Kruglenkoe, taking positions in the villages previously held by North Korean and Russian forces. Ukrainian Defense Forces also advanced east of Pogrebki along the 38K-024 road.
Russian forces advanced from Russkaya Konopelka to Agronom, where they are currently attacking, and to the outskirts of Makhnovka.
On the Lyman direction, an enemy detachment crossed to the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka, took positions, but was destroyed by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is attempting to bypass Vozdvyzhenka from the west and has had some success. The enemy attacked and advanced south of Pishchane, near Solone and Novoelyzavetivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is advancing south of the Kurakhove Reservoir along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, attacking near Shevchenkove.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy is bypassing Neskuchne from the west, attacking in the general direction of Novyi Komar to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces in Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka.
General conclusion:
The enemy is attempting to maintain the pace of its offensive on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, remaining active on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kramatorsk directions, while the Kharkiv, Siversk, and Orikhiv directions remain secondary.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were 7 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to advance near Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, Kopanky, Makiivka, Ivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Torske, Terny, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked in the area of Serebrianka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 14 clashes were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 7 attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and in the direction of Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 38 enemy assault and offensive actions in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Solone, Kotlyne, Pishchane, Pokrovsk, Novoelyzavetivka, Promin, Zelene, Novoolenivka, Shevchenko, Dachenske, and Novovasylivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 attacks near Ukrainka, Petropavlivka, and Kurakhove.
On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 19 attacks on Ukrainian positions in the areas of Dachne, Konstyantynopil, Yantarne, Novosilka, Rozlyv, and Novyi Komar.
On the Orikhiv direction, although the enemy actively used bombing aviation, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled an attack near Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders unsuccessfully attempted to assault Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions twice in the area of Zabych Island.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 8 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, a withdrawal of the “Donetsk” OTG to the Ukrainka – Andriivka – Rozlyv – Novoocheretuvate line is expected. The length of the line of contact will be reduced, thereby tightening the combat formations of the operational-tactical group. As soon as the enemy completes the formation of the southern flank of Pokrovsk’s envelopment with the forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, the 41st Combined Arms Army will launch an offensive towards Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne to form the northern flank.
On the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, the enemy's command will face the dilemma of simultaneously capturing Pokrovsk and compressing the Kurakhove bridgehead without disrupting the combat formations of the 90th Tank Division or transferring additional elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army from the Toretsk direction or regrouping the 8th Combined Arms Army to this area.
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is likely to attempt to encircle Ukrainian Defense Forces' units in the Kurakhove salient. To achieve this, they may simultaneously deploy the 110th and 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, as well as the 36th, 114th, and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, to break through from the north and south toward Ulakly along the Shevchenko (lower)–Ulakly and Zelenivka– Ulakly directions. If the enemy succeeds, all units of the “Khortytsia” OSG currently defending the area around Kurakhove, the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant, Dachne, and along the Sukhyi Yaly River east of Zelenivka will find themselves encircled. The enemy also has the potential to deepen the encirclement by attempting to attack not only westward toward Ulakly but also toward Andriivka.
The overall enemy intent regarding the capture of the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka may look as follows: the 36th Combined Arms Army (composed of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and the attached 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army) creates frontal pressure along the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly River and from the east in the directions of Blahodatne – Velyka Novosilka, Zolota Nyva – Velyka Novosilka, and Shakhtarske – Velyka Novosilka, aiming to tie down the main forces of the Ukrainian grouping defending in the area in question as much as possible. Simultaneously, the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet break through north of the village and seize two roads leading north from Velyka Novosilka. The 5th Combined Arms Army (comprising the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) advances in the area of Rivnopil – Storozhove in a northern direction towards the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road, cutting it off and bypassing the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defense area in Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and west.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy command may deploy an assault grouping consisting of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. Possible directions of advance may include Nesteryanka–Novoandriivka and Myrne–Shcherbaky. The objective may be to bypass the city of Orikhiv from the west, cut the logistical route between Orikhiv and Stepove, and create conditions for encircling the defensive positions of the "Tavriya" Operational Strategic Group around Orikhiv from two sides simultaneously. The possibility of forming another assault grouping (forces of the 35th Combined Arms Army) cannot be ruled out, which could strike in the general direction of Myrne–Charivne, bypass Orikhiv from the east, or encircle the city from the north by breaking through to the village of Omelnyk.
The enemy's military command in the south-western theater of operations until March 2025 will try to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka thus achieving the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”, namely occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 02.01.25
Personnel - almost 792,170 (+1,370);
Tanks 9,676 (+4);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,056 (+13);
Artillery systems – 21,552 (+20);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,032 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 32,729 (+54);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 330 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 21,200 (+69);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,003 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of January 2, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 72 Shahed-type attack UAVs and other drones; 47 were destroyed, 24 failed to reach their targets, and as of 8:30 AM, 1 remained airborne.
On the night of January 2, Russian troops attacked Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 11 times with guided bombs (KABs), destroying a five-story building and killing a man.
Around 11:00 AM, Russian occupiers attacked a city bus in the Korabelnyi District of Kherson, injuring four passengers. Throughout the day, at least 10 civilian objects were damaged in Kherson Oblast due to shelling. By evening, seven injuries had been reported.
On January 2, Russian forces struck Dnipro and Nikopol districts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A municipal enterprise, infrastructure, two five-story buildings, two garages, a truck, and a power line were damaged. No casualties were reported.
In Kyiv Oblast, 4,791 people have been reported missing since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Russian forces have changed their tactics and weapons in attacks on Ukraine's energy system. Over the past month, four large-scale attacks were carried out, with the enemy frequently using weapons with cluster munitions to inflict maximum damage on the energy infrastructure. According to Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko, 2024 was the most challenging year for Ukraine's energy system. The enemy began massive attacks in March, continuing throughout the year. In total, Russia carried out 13 large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in 2024.
The percentage of Ukrainians willing to endure the burdens of war for as long as necessary has decreased. As of December 2024, 57% expressed such readiness, a 16-percentage-point drop compared to December 2023/February 2024, according to a survey conducted in December 2024 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Russians have "legalized" repressions against Ukrainian civilians in temporarily occupied territories. According to the Center for National Resistance, police within the framework of so-called "state control over migrants" will have the right to access housing and other premises where such "foreigners" reside. In reality, this targets those who have not exchanged their Ukrainian passports for Russian ones.