Russia's war on Ukraine. 01.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, enemy launched three assaults near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the occupiers conducted 15 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Berestove, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 21 times, attempting to advance near Katerynivka, Stepove, Hrekivka, Terny, and in the Serebriansk Forest. On the Kramatorsk direction, clashes were recorded near Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy conducted 3 attacks near Toretsk.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 35 assault and offensive actions by the aggressor in the areas of Promin, Lysivka, and Vyshneve. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 60 attacks on Ukrainian positions near Novoselydivka, Kreminna Balka, Novodmytrivka, Ostrivske, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, and Yelyzavetivka. The occupiers were most active in attempting to advance near Antonivka and Yelyzavetivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 5 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka and Trudove, actively using assault and bomber aircraft. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked twice toward Novodanylivka, receiving a harsh counterattack and suffering losses.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders launched 4 assaults on Ukrainian positions but did not achieve success.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces are expecting a counterattack by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk direction in the near future.

• Small enemy infantry groups occasionally cross the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal but cannot advance due to Ukrainian Defense Forces' fire resistance.

• Russian forces have slowed the pace of their assault on Toretsk but have not reduced the intensity of shelling and airstrikes. Russian airstrikes are inaccurate and sometimes result in "friendly fire."

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have started using buggies for assaults.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 170 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced west of Pogrebki. The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet counterattacked east of Liubimovka, making slight progress in this area, while the 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division engaged in battles for Liubimovka and attempted to advance south of Olgovka. Fighting continued near Novyi Put, Daryino, Martynovka, Novoivanovka, Zelenyi Put, and Plekhovo. The 382nd Separate Marines Battalion of the 810th Marine Brigade lost 2 of its 4 assault groups in combat, became combat-ineffective, and is refusing to return to the front line.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk. The enemy is using motorcycles, buggies, ATVs, and other unarmored vehicles to conduct attacks.

• The "Kharkiv" OTG successfully held the defense and counterattacked near Hlyboke.

• On the Kupyansk direction, the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army advanced west of Stelmakhivka, while the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army advanced on the northern outskirts of Kruhlyakivka. Russian forces advanced near Synkivka, close to Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Pershotravneve, and are preparing to attack Zahryzove. They continued their offensive near Kindrashivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pershotravneve, Pishchane, Novoosynove, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Berestove, Katerynivka, Bohuslavka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Vyshneve, Zelenyi Hai, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy established a foothold west of the Chornyi Zherebets River near Novosadove, advanced on the northern outskirts of Terny, and continued to attack near Zarichne and the Serebriansk Forest.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Bilohorivka and Verkhnyokamianske but did not make any advances.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, particularly within the "Zhovtnevyi" neighborhod, but failed. The enemy attempted to advance along the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway and 2 kilometers east of Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, the 12th “Azov” Separate Brigade of Operative Purpose of the National Guard of Ukraine continues to push the enemy out of Toretsk. Russian forces continued their assault in the Toretsk area but made no advances.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced east and southeast of Pokrovsk, south of Novotoretske, northwest of Selydove, and continued to attack near Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Novooleksiivka, Hryhorivka, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Vyshneve, Krutyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Selydove.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained positions in the forests southwest of Pobieda.

• The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army advanced to the southwestern outskirts of Kurakhivka and engaged in battles for the village. The enemy is engaged in battles for Vovchenka, seized positions on the outskirts of Kurakhove, and advanced in the areas of Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Hirnyk, Oleksandrivka, west of Pobieda, and continued offensive actions near Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Illinets, Kurakhivka, Voznesenka, Ostrivka, Hostre, and Maksymilianivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, over the past five days, the enemy almost destroyed the positions of the "Tavriya" OSG units in the area between Zolota Nyva and Vodyane. The occupiers broke through the first position near Shakhtarske, forcing a Territorial Defense Battalion to retreat and exposing the flank of a neighboring battalion, which allowed the enemy to advance into the rear and attack. Ukrainian Defense Forces deployed reserves, but the enemy introduced up to two regiments with support from the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, inflicting losses on the "Tavriya" OSG units and securing positions in Yasna Poliana, Novoukrainka, and Bohoyavlenka. Using these positions, the enemy is assaulting Maksymivka and Trudove.

• The aggressor continued its advance near Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Trudove, and Maksymivka.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Charivne and close to Novodanylivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat Near Vovchansk.

• The 403rd Motorized Rifle Regiment operates near Lozova.

• The 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is active near Vasyukivka.

• The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is consolidating in the center of Novoukrainka.

• The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army is conducting combat operations on the Polohy direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.

• To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.

• In the near future, the "Tavriya" OSG is expected to fully withdraw from the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. The future defense of Kurakhove remains uncertain, as the critical defense hub that enabled the retention of territory north of the reservoir (the town of Hirnyk) was lost following the enemy's capture of Ukrainsk and breakthrough to Tsukuryne.

• With the current pace of the enemy's offensive on the Vremivka direction, the encirclement of Kurakhove from the south can be expected by November 10.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.11.24  

Personnel - almost 696,410 (+1,460); 

Tanks 9,162 (+6);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,470 (+20); 

Artillery systems – 20,039 (+26);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,244 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 994 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 28,038 (+77);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,088 (+25);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,628 (+1)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• More than 2,249 children have been affected in Ukraine as a result of the full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation. As of the morning of November 1, 2024, according to official information from juvenile prosecutors, 585 children have died, and more than 1,664 have sustained injuries of varying severity.

• During the night of November 1, Russia launched 48 attack drones, including unidentified UAVs against Ukraine, and launched three guided air missiles (Kh-59/69). Thirty-one enemy drones and one missile were successfully destroyed.

• Around 1 p.m., Russian forces launched a missile strike on Dnipro, impacting the student campus of Dnipro National University: windows in the dormitory, academic, and sports buildings were damaged.

• In the afternoon of November 1, Russian forces struck Kharkiv with a ballistic missile, damaging dozens of private residences and apartment buildings. One impact hit a residential building directly, with a 71-year-old woman and a 60-year-old woman experiencing acute stress reactions.

• On Friday evening, the Russian army struck a police deployment site in Kharkiv. As a result, one police officer was killed, with 26 other officers and four civilians injured. According to law enforcement, the Russians launched two missiles, reportedly using S-300 missiles.

• Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 49 attacks on more than ten communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring one person and causing extensive damage, with 82 explosions recorded.

• During the previous day, the occupiers launched 287 attacks on 9 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Sixteen reports of destruction to residential buildings and infrastructure facilities were received, though no civilian casualties were reported.

• n Kherson Oblast, on October 31, Russian attacks left one person dead and 13 others injured. Russian forces targeted an educational institution and damaged 11 private homes in residential areas across the oblast.

• Since 2022, 395 people have been abducted from temporarily occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, including 103 representatives of the Crimean Tatar community, according to the Crimean Tatar Resource Center.