Russia's war on Ukraine. 01.04.2024
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Terny, where the enemy, with air support, tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 8 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, attempted to improve its tactical position.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to dislodge the Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and east of Vodyane, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach defenses 22 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 2 times in the area of Staromayorske and Robotyne.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and twice attacked their positions over the past day.
General conclusion:
Russian forces on the Bakhmut direction are primarily focusing their attack towards Chasiv Yar due to its position on dominant elevated terrain.
Russian forces have resumed the practice of conducting large-scale attacks in a joint armored combat formation on the Avdiivka direction, marking the first instance since October 2023.
On the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian forces leverage improved weather conditions and enhance aerial reconnaissance, conducting over 200 UAV reconnaissance sorties per day.
Russian forces impose limitations on the deployment of armored vehicles during assaults near Robotyne.
Russian forces carry out one to three infantry assaults daily without armored support near Krynky.
The adversary's "Dnieper" Operational Grouping, active on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, is relocating forces and resources from occupied Crimea to undisclosed locations. This relocation is facilitated by a complex logistical scheme, necessitated by Russian military command restrictions on the use of main logistic routes, which are vulnerable to blockades by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn about Ukraine's constrained capacity to defend against the anticipated enemy offensive during the summer, due to shortages of ammunition, lack of manpower, and delays in Western assistance.
Russian forces are expected to resume the launches of “Kalibr” cruise missiles from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the near future. The pause in their use is attributed to the duration required for replenishing missile stocks, which was filled with the use of the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile until their supplies were exhausted.
The Russian Aerospace Forces primarily utilize Tu-95 strategic bombers and occasionally Tu-22 supersonic bombers for missile and air strikes on Ukraine. Tu-160 supersonic heavy strategic bombers have not been used for a long time. Tu-22 are employed only once a week to launch Kh-22 anti-ship missiles due to unspecified technical issues with these aircraft.
The Russian defense industry has upgraded the Kh-22 missile and developed the Kh-32 missile based on it, allowing for adaptation for launches from Tu-95 or Tu-160.
Russian aviation has been using thermobaric high-explosive aviation bombs ODAB-1500 in Ukraine for some time, primarily in border areas and along the front line.
The adversary's aviation employs a modified Kh-101 cruise missile developed by the State Design Bureau of Machine-Building "Rainbow," with a reduced fuel tank and an increased warhead from 450 to 800 kg, resulting in a reduced flight range from 5500 km to approximately 2250 km.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 53 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles have been ongoing near Synkivka, where the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the enemy’s 6th Army is attempting to advance.
On the Lyman direction, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have recently advanced east of Terny.
Positional battles have been ongoing near Terny and Bilohorivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces have advanced near Bohdanivka. Positional battles have been ongoing in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne.
On the Avdiivka direction, the 6th Tank Regiment of the enemy’s 90th Tank Division attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Tonenke, using 36 tanks and 12 IFVs, and slightly advanced northwest of the village. "Tavriya" OSG units repelled this first massive assault after the capture of Avdiivka by the aggressor, destroying 12 tanks and 8 IFVs in the process.
The enemy is advancing near Berdychi, south of Nevelske, and near Pervomaiske. Positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian troops slightly advanced southwest of Novomykhailivka, near Heorhiivka. Positional battles were ongoing near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
Berdyansk direction: positional battles were ongoing in the areas of Vodyane, Staromayorske, and Pryiutne.
Orikhiv direction: positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.
Kherson direction: Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Krynky.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier with the total salvo of 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
The command of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy relocated all the most valuable combat ships to the naval base in Novorossiysk. Only one ship, the cruise missile ship "Kalibr," remains at the naval base in Sevastopol, which has never been loaded with cruise missiles and has never used them. A barrier consisting of barges is being constructed around the naval base in Novorossiysk to counter Ukrainian unmanned boats.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army operate on the Bakhmut direction.
Units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the adversary’s 8th Army operate near Pervomaiske.
Near Tonenke, the enemy's command on the Avdiivka direction engaged the 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, which was previously considered to be in the operational reserve of the "Center" grouping.
Units of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army operate near Pobieda.
Units of the 305th Artillery Brigade of the adversary’s 5th Army were detected near Staromayorske.
Units of the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army operate near Nesteryanka.
The Russian military command plans to deploy the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the 6th Army in Kursk Oblast to defend the airspace of the Russian Federation from the UAV attacks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Currently, the brigade is deployed in Luhansk Oblast.
Escalation indicators:
Deployment of a part of operational reserves to the Avdiivka direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations may include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel, aiming for a minimum force strength of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.04.24
Personnel - almost 442,880 people (+710);
Tanks - 6,986 (+20);
Armored combat vehicles – 13,321 (+17);
Artillery systems – 11,082 (+32);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 1,023 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 744 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,752 (+35);
Aircraft - 347 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 8,757 (+26);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 2,057 (+9);
Boats/ships – 27 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 9 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 137 towns and villages and 103 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
During the past day, the Russian army shelled 16 towns and villages in Kherson Oblast, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. Additionally, Russian occupiers inflicted injuries on four residents of Donetsk Oblast.
Since the beginning of the year, Russia has launched 5 3M22 "Zircon" missiles, 11 Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" missiles, 6 "Iskander" missiles, 3 Kh-69 missiles, 1 "Kalibr" missile, 113 Kh-101 missiles, and 48 "Shahed" type UAVs towards Kyiv.
Russian troops struck the border town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast on April 1st, injuring a 27 year old woman. She was hospitalized. Another civilian woman was injured during the morning shelling of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast.
As of the morning of April 1st, emergency power outages are not being implemented. Hourly schedules of electrical power restrictions are in place in Kharkiv, and network consumption restrictions are applied to industrial consumers in the Kryvyi Rih district.