Russia's war on Ukraine. 01.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in Makhnovka and attacked forested areas near Nikolskiy and Sverdlivkovo.
The "Siversk" OTG counterattacked near Novaya Sorochina and Staraya Sorochina, launching a missile strike on the command post of the enemy’s "Kursk" Operational Grouping in Rylsk.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces conducted several localized attacks near Lyptsi and Vovchansk but made no progress.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces not only hold Zapadne itself but also a significant area along the road between it and Dvorichna.
The 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, reinforced by several units of the "volunteer assault corps," is engaged in fierce battles on both sides of the Kupyansk–Dvorichna road in the Zapadne–Dvorichna sector. The enemy managed to break through beyond the road but is experiencing difficulties in increasing its efforts in this area. The enemy is attempting to push the "Khortytsia" OSG units as far as possible from the destroyed bridge over the Oskil River to at least partially restore it and secure logistical support for its forward units operating on the western bank. To build on its success, the command of the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping may deploy the 79th and 275th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps to the bridgehead.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced east of Yampolivka and attacked in the areas of Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Balka Zhuravka, Yampolivka, Terny, Novolyubivka, and Novomykhailivka.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance towards Verkhnokamianske and attacked in the areas of Bilohorivka and Spirne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Chasiv Yar, particularly near the refractory materials plant and towards Mykolaivka, attacking near Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne. The "Shevchenko" neigborhood (southwestern part of Chasiv Yar) remains a contested "gray" zone.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Toretsk, in Petrivka and Shcherbynivka, eliminated the pocket between Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, reached the eastern outskirts of Sukha Balka, attacked in the areas of Dyliivka and Krymske, and captured half of the "Toretska" mine.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances west of Kotlyne, southeast of Vodyane Druhe, south of Uspenivka, and towards the eastern outskirts of Sukhy Yar. They attacked near Pokrovsk, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Malynivka, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Novoandriivka, Nadiivka, Zvirove, Zaporizhzhia, and Preobrazhenka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain positions on the southern outskirts of Uspenivka and counterattacked near Nadiivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, south of the Vovcha River, the "Khortytsia" OSG units are slowly retreating from the Dachne area and from the line along the Sukhi Yaly River while engaging in fierce rear-guard battles. The enemy’s 36th and 39th Motorized Rifle Brigades advanced northward from the Zelenivka–Yantarne line towards Dachne. Simultaneously, the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army are advancing on Dachne from the east.
The forward units of the 114th and 110th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army retreated to the village of Shevchenko, from where they have recently made multiple attempts to break through and establish a foothold in Andriivka. However, the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment or the 67th Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division managed to break into the village from the northeast. The forward units of the 90th Tank Division are actively advancing in the directions of Nadiivka–Kotlyarivka and Novoandriivka–Sribne but have been unable to move west of Slovyanka.
The 6th and 80th Tank Regiments, the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and part of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division managed to reach the Nadiivka–Novoandriivka line, thus securing the strike force of the enemy operating on the Pokrovsk direction from the south and maintaining the threat of encirclement for parts of "Khortytsia" OSG that continue defending in the Andriivka area and to the south.
However, the "Khortytsia" OSG continues to hold the section of the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk road between Konstyantynopil and Dachne, including Ulakly, which allows it to conduct these battles in an organized manner. So far, the enemy has been unable to break through from Zelenivka to Ulakly, preventing a swift and irreversible collapse of the entire "Khortytsia" OSG defensive system south of the road.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Rozdolne and north of Novyi Komar, attacking near Rozdolne, Novosilka, and Novopil.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack at various locations.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kamianske.
Russian forces attacked in the area of Novodanylivka.
General conclusion:
The Russian military command is developing and disseminating a doctrinal method of advancement across the entire theater of military operations, aimed at the gradual encirclement of frontline cities and settlements on a scale that would be feasible to complete before hypothetical peace negotiations.
The command of the enemy’s 6th Combined Arms Army is expanding its success in the area of Dvorichna, simultaneously attempting to take full control of it "Khortytsia" OSG units hold its northern part) and advance towards Kupyansk, attacking both north and south of Zapadne.
The command of the enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping may increase the intensity and scale of combat operations on the Kupyansk direction if it successfully establishes a bridgehead capable of holding two to three battalions on the Oskil River south of Kupyansk while simultaneously expanding the bridgehead in the Dvorichna area and deploying a force there capable of successfully advancing either towards Kupyansk or in the direction of Velykyi Burluk.
Despite the breakthrough of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army to Oskil in the area of Kruhlyakivka, the enemy has so far failed to expand this sector for the successful formation of an Oskil bridgehead.
The 51st Combined Arms Army will use the capture of Toretsk to advance rapidly across more open terrain west of the city, as the enemy’s priority in the spring and summer of 2025 will be capturing the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast.
The command of the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping prioritizes the Pokrovsk direction to eliminate the Ukrainian salient between Vozdvyzhenka and Toretsk.
The forces of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the enemy’s "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping reinforced by units of the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades, have captured the area of Novyi Komar – Velyka Novosilka – Neskuchne – Vremivka, thereby achieving their immediate objective—capturing a "Khortytsia" OSG’s key defensive stronghold on the Novopavlivka direction.
The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army, simultaneously operating on both the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, integrates the enemy's actions in both directions into a unified operational concept. The division has been reinforced with a motorized rifle regiment and two rifle regiments. However, as the 90th Tank Division continues advancing westward, the enemy’s left flank near Pokrovsk becomes increasingly vulnerable. Meanwhile, the "Khortytsia" OSG forces on the Novopavlivka direction remain under the threat of encirclement from the north.
The ability of "Khortytsia" OSG to systematically and with minimal losses retreat from the Kurakhove bridgehead to the area of Konstyantynopil depends on the continued defense of Andriivka, located north of the Vovcha River.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 134 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, there were two enemy attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, the occupiers launched six attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault operations in the directions of Lozova, Bohuslavka, Pishchane, Petropavlivka, and Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 11 times, attempting to advance near Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy made six assault attempts to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Spirne but did not succeed.
On the Kramatorsk direction, five assaults took place in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out ten attacks in the Toretsk area.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 61 enemy assaults toward Mashivka, Yelyzavetivka, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Novoandriivka, Oleksiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka, Dachne, and Ulakly.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled nine enemy assaults. The enemy concentrated its offensive efforts near Konstyantynopil and Rozdolne.
On the Huliaypole direction, with the support of assault and bomber aviation, the enemy made two unsuccessful attempts to push Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions in the areas of Novopil and Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers launched a failed assault near Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces attacked four times but, after suffering losses, retreated.
On the Kursk direction, "Siversk" OTG repelled 12 enemy attacks. The enemy also conducted 20 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka oil refinery, a thermal power plant, and an oil depot in Volgograd.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army operates in Pogrebki. The 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Chechnya" of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat on the Sudzha direction.
The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is active on the Siversk direction.
The "Maxym Kryvonos Volunteer Detachment" allegedly formed from former servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who defected to Russia operates on the Pokrovsk direction. The 50th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat near Mala Tokmachka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
In the near future, the command of the 6th Combined Arms Army will attempt to expand its tactical bridgehead on the Oskil River in the area of Dvorichna by pushing forward units of the "Khortytsia" OSG away from the Kupyansk–Dvorichna road and completely driving them out of Dvorichna.
If the "Khortytsia" OSG command manages to contain the enemy's bridgehead in the Dvorichna area and block its attempts to cross the Oskil River with significant forces, then the command of the enemy’s "Sever (North)" and "Zapad (West)" Operational Groupings will be unable to develop an offensive on Kupyansk.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will attempt to leverage tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk. For this purpose, the intensity of combat operations southwest of Toretsk will be increased.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
The most likely course of enemy actions in the operational zone of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping may involve the capture of the Novodarivka–Novopil–Zelene Pole–Novosilka area, followed by an attempted breakthrough toward Bahatyr and Komar. To accomplish this, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and part of the forces of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army (whose main forces operate in Kursk Oblast) will be redeployed from the right flank of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army. The 36th Combined Arms Army will be fully deployed east of the Mokri Yaly River and reinforced with the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be moved into reserve and later used to develop the offensive toward Komar and Bahatyr. Securing this initial objective will enable the command of the Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping to create highly favorable conditions for an offensive by the 35th Combined Arms Army on the Huliaypole direction. A breakthrough to Bahatyr and Komar would allow the enemy to achieve operational success across the entire Novopavlivka direction.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 01.02.25
Personnel - almost 839,040 (+1,430);
Tanks 9,902 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,653 (+22);
Artillery systems – 22,493 (+48);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,266 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,050 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 35,629 (+77);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 23,694 (+121);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate by almost three times. During this period, 176,679 babies were born, while 495,090 people died.
Overnight, the Russian army carried out the most massive strike on Zaporizhzhia in recent times—more than 10 strikes. A total of 18 Shahed drones were directed at the city. The attack damaged an educational institution, residential buildings, and vehicles.
On the morning of February 1, during a large-scale air raid due to missile threats, strikes hit Kharkiv, as well as the Kharkiv and Berestianskyi districts. As a result, one person was killed, and five others were injured.
In Kherson Oblast, a drone attack on the village of Antonivka in Kherson District on the morning of February 1 killed one person. In the settlement of Veletenske, a 59-year-old man was injured due to a drone attack.
In Poltava, a morning Russian missile strike on a residential building completely destroyed an entrance section. Seventeen people were injured, including children, while eight people were killed, one of whom was a child.
In January, Russian strikes on Kyiv resulted in the deaths of five people and injuries to seven others, with damage recorded in almost all districts of the city. In Kherson, Russian aggression in January killed 16 civilians and wounded 154 others.
On January 31, 2025, the "Historic Center of Odesa," a UNESCO World Heritage site, was again targeted in a Russian missile attack. Around 15 cultural heritage monuments sustained varying degrees of damage.
Due to a Russian missile attack on the morning of February 1, emergency power outages were introduced in seven oblasts of the country, according to the press service of NEC "Ukrenergo." The restrictions were applied in Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of noon, the restrictions had been lifted.