Russia’s war on Ukraine. 01.01.26
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance southeast of Oleksiivka, south of Varachyne, southeast of Sadky, and attacked near Kostyantynivka, Kindrativka, Andriivka, Yunakivka, and Yablunivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kindrativka and in Yunakivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the western part of Vovchanski Khutory and attacked near Vovchansk, Starytsia, Lyman, in the direction of Izbytske, near Dekhtyarnе, Ambarne, Dovhenke, Dvorichanske, and in the direction of Obukhivka. The 1st Separate Assault Regiment of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is suffering significant losses during assault actions, and its units have not restored combat capability for 1.5 years.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Lyman, Vilcha, and Khatnie.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces hold positions on the northern and western outskirts of Myrove and in the area northeast of the village, and attacked near Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Shyikivka, in the direction of Druzhelyubivka and Novoserhiyivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kupyansk.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Drobysheve, Novoselivka, Korovyi Yar, Oleksandrivka, in the direction of Sosnove and Stavky, and near Zarichne and Yampil.
On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Ozerne and attacked near Dronivka, Platonivka, Serebrianka, and in the direction of Riznykivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Sviato-Pokrovske.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the eastern part of Kostyantynivka,
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Markove, Minkivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Ivanopillya, Kleban-Byk, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, in the direction of Stepanivka, near Rusyn Yar, and in the direction of Torske, Novopavlivka, and Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Udachne, attempted to advance on the eastern outskirts of Novyi Donbas, near Toretske, on the southern outskirts of Bilytske, north of Pokrovsk, and attacked near Novе Shakhove, near and inside Pokrovsk, near Hryshyne, Rodynske, Sukhetske, Krasnyi Lyman, near and within Myrnohrad and Rivne, and near Kotlyne and Molodetske.
Units of the 1st “Azov” Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine raised the Ukrainian flag in Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Novе Shakhove and west of Pokrovsk.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka, Filiya, Yalta, Andriivka-Klevtsove, Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, and Vyshneve, but did not advance.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward the western outskirts of Varvarivka and attacked near Huliaypole, in the direction of Ternuvate, near Danylivka, Dobropillya, Solodke, Rybne, Pryvillya, Zlahoda, Dorozhanka, and in the direction of Zalizne and Staroukrainka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Huliaypole. The enemy does not control the city.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced within Stepnohirsk and north of the city,
Russian forces advanced within Stepnohirsk, attempted to advance north and northwest of Lukyanivske and in Prymorske, and attacked near Bilohirya, in the direction of Pavlivka and Novoyakovlivka.
On the Prydniprovske Direction, Russian forces attacked in the direction of the Antonivskyi Bridge.
General conclusion:
The Russian military-political leadership has intensified discussion of a buffer zone in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts as part of an information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian defense as close to collapse across the entire theater of operations, which does not correspond to the real situation.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempt to use fog and snow to conceal movement toward Ukrainian positions and attack both during the day and at night.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces have begun using winter camouflage during infiltration missions toward Kostyantynivka and employ FPV drones to monitor Ukrainian Defense Forces logistics routes.
The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces holds its positions in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Hryshyne. Russian forces concentrate their main efforts toward Hryshyne.
In the period from April to August 2025, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus sent 31 railcars with military equipment from the 814th Technical Support Center to the 1311th Central Tank Reserve Base (located in Verkhniaia Pyshma, near Yekaterinburg).
Supporting operation:
The Unmanned Systems Forces struck RN-Tuapsinsky Oil Refinery LLC, the Tamanneftegaz oil and gas terminal near Volna on the Taman Peninsula, the oil storage facility of Kaluganaftoprodukt JSC in Liudinovo, Kaluga Oblast, the Ilsk Oil Refinery of KNGK-INPZ LLC in Krasnodar Krai, and the federal state treasury institution Temp in Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast.
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a temporary basing point of river boats in the area of Olenivka in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and ammunition depots near Blyzhnie and Siyatel in Donetsk Oblast.
Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:
There were 131 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Southern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, the enemy attempted six times to break through Ukrainian defensive lines near Vovchansk and toward Obukhivka and Dovhenke.
On the Kupyansk Direction, seven enemy attacks took place. Enemy assault actions toward Novoplatonivka, Bohuslavka, Kurylivka, Shyikivka, and Hlushkivka were repelled.
On the Lyman direction, he enemy carried out 11 attacks, attempting to penetrate the Ukrainian defense near Novoselivka, Yampil, Zarichne, and toward Stavky and Drobysheve.
On the Sloviansk direction, an attempt by the occupiers to advance in the area of Serebrianka was stopped.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy conducted 16 attacks in the areas of Oleksandro-Shultyne, Yablunivka, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, Torske, Rusyn Yar, and toward Sofiivka and Ivanopillya.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 33 assault actions by the aggressor were stopped in the areas of Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Udachne, Kotlyne, Molodetske, Filiya, Hryshyne, and toward Novopavlivka, Kucheriv Yar, Bilytske, Novopidhorodnie, Nove Shakhove, Rodynske, and Serhiivka.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the adversary carried out 15 attacks near Zlahoda, Rybne, Zelenyi Hai, and toward Andriivka-Klevtsove and Pryvillya.
On the Huliaypole Direction, 15 attacks by the occupiers took place in the areas of Huliaypole, Solodke, and Bilohirya.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps strikes Ukrainian forces in eastern Kostyantynivka, while the 40th Separate Marine Brigade operates near Rayske.
The 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates toward Dobropillya; the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 1487th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, and the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Combined Arms Army fight in Myrnohrad; the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian forces near Shevchenkove.
The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 1st Separate UAV Battalion, the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army, and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade strike Ukrainian forces on the eastern outskirts of Hirkе. The 189th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operates in Stepnohirsk, while the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes near Orikhiv.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Southern Slobozhanske Direction, the enemy will attempt to capture Vovchansk, attempt to break through in the area of Tsehelne toward the Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv road and the highway to Rubizhne with the forces of a tactical grouping (elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 11th and the 44th Army Corps). These actions will slow the enemy’s advance along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets to Bilyi Kolodyaz, Verkhnya Pysarivka and Buhayivka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, the enemy will hold its bridgehead in the Dvorichna and simultaneously will develop an offensive by the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army east of the city. The troops of the 6th Combined Arms Army will envelop the defense area of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces near Kolodyazne, will attack in the Milove – Ambarne and Krasne Pershe – Novovasylivka Directions, and will break through in the Dvorichna – Ridkodub Direction.
The defeat of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping in Kupyansk complicates and delays the seizure of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. The successes of Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk Direction will not allow Russian forces to exploit the advance of the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army near Lyman and the 3rd Combined Arms Army near Siversk, thereby slowing the movement toward Sloviansk. Enemy forces will need to force the Siverskyi Donets River in the Lyman Direction to reach Sloviansk and secure their flanks against a possible counterstrike by Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Izium area. Russian forces are unable to develop an offensive toward Sloviansk from the Siversk Direction, as they do not have a sufficient number of troops there to conduct a frontal assault on the city.
On the Lyman Direction, the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will attempt to seize the Yarova – Novoselivka – Drobysheve – Pryshyb area and block the Lyman – Izium logistics route along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The 25th Combined Arms Army will continue its offensive east and southeast of Lyman in order to reach the Dibrova – Ozerne line and create a favorable initial position for an assault on Lyman from the south and southeast and will attempt to seize Zakitne and consolidate on the dominant heights. In addition, through actions on this Direction, the enemy seeks to support the 3rd Combined Arms Army, which is advancing toward Sloviansk along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The troops of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies will advance north and east of Lyman with the aim of isolating the defense area of the 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Defense Forces around the city from the north and northwest, in order to reach the Siverskyi Donets River south of the city on the Raihorodok – Zakitne section.
By maintaining control of a bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets river, 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Defense Forces will make it much more challenging for the enemy to launch an offensive towards Sloviansk from this direction.
On the Sloviansk Direction, the 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through from the Dronivka – Siversk line to the Zakitne – Riznykivka – Kalenyky – Kryva Luka area, facilitating the offensive on Lyman by the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army. The advance of the 3rd Combined Arms Army along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in a westward direction will allow the command of the enemy “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping not only to concentrate the main forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies for the assault on Lyman without diverting them to block Defense Forces positions along the river, but also to ensure maneuver by troops within the zones of the 3rd, 20th, and 25th Combined Arms Armies across the Siverskyi Donets River outside the fire influence of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Ukrainian Defense Forces will seek opportunities to slow the enemy advance along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River toward Raihorodok and Sloviansk.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy command will attempt to conduct a deep envelopment of Kostyantynivka from the north, east, and southeast and to break through from the southwest to the near approaches to Druzhkivka, that is, to enter the deep rear of the 19th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in Kostyantynivka and to its south and southwest. Enemy troops will advance in the general direction of Volodymyrivka – Rayske to reach the near approaches to Druzhkivka and will attempt to break through from the east and northeast to the Bilokuzmynivka – Virolyubivka – Izhevka – Kurtivka area. Simultaneously, the enemy will conduct a frontal offensive within the defense zone of the 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. The troops of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps will advance to the Novodmytrivka – Chervone line, collapsing the defense of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 11th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Chasiv Yar by an offensive from the south. The aggressor will attack along both banks of the Kazennyi Torets River in the Sofiivka area, attempt to seize the village, and advance toward Novopavlivka and Torske. In the offensive zone of the 8th Combined Arms Army, the enemy will advance in the general direction of Volodymyrivka – Sofiivka.
The Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad defense area of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces will be seized by the enemy by the end of January 2026. By capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the enemy gains the chance to launch an offensive toward Dobropillya and potentially break through rapidly, with the 2nd Combined Arms Army advancing from Pokrovsk and the 51st Combined Arms Army moving from the bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River. The command of the enemy “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will not be able to bypass/encircle the defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flanks, as the Defense Forces firmly hold the Vilne – Novyi Donbas line, leaving only a frontal offensive on Dobropillya, which will entail enormous losses.
On the Oleksandrivka and Huliaypole Directions, the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to envelop the Huliaypole defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north, block its main lines of communication, reach the Huliaypole–Pokrovske road on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section, reach the Khaychur River, force it in the Danylivka–Dobropillya area, and encircle Huliaypole from the northwest. Forces of the 36th Combined Arms Army and elements of the right flank of the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through toward Pokrovske from the southeast.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the enemy will try to break through toward Novomykolayivka to bypass the Orikhiv defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north. The enemy “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to collapse the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine southeast of Zaporizhzhia and break through to its near approaches, advancing along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway. Simultaneously, acting from the south, the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will attempt to break through from the Plavni–Kamianske line along the left bank of the Dnipro River toward Stepnohirsk, and from the Stepove–Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction with the aim of reaching the near approaches to the city of Zaporizhzhia.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 01.01.26
Personnel - almost 1,208 970 (+1,060);
Tanks – 11,488 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,849 (+4);
Artillery systems – 35,678 (+36);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,587 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,266 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 72,418 (+171);
Aircraft - 434 (0);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 97,453 (+769);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,136 (0);
Boats/ships – 30 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of December 31 to January 1, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 205 strike UAVs of the Shahed and Gerbera type, and other drones. Air defense forces managed to neutralize 176 enemy UAVs in the north, south, and east of the country, however, impacts by 24 strike UAVs were recorded at 15 locations. Approximately 130 of the employed UAVs were Shahed-type, and as of the morning of January 1 the enemy attack was still ongoing.
During the night of January 1, Russian occupation forces carried out another UAV attack on Odesa Oblast, striking energy infrastructure facilities immediately before the New Year. Power supply disruptions were recorded at critical enterprises that support the functioning of the infrastructure of the city of Odesa.
During the night of January 1, Russian forces conducted a strike UAV attack on the city of Lutsk. As a result of the enemy attack, a fire broke out in the city. Volyn Oblast remained under a massive attack by enemy strike UAVs throughout the entire New Year’s night, with impacts on critical infrastructure facilities, power outages in the Oblast, and 103,341 subscribers disconnected.
On the evening of December 31, Zaporizhzhia again came under a Russian strike, as a result of which a multi-story residential building was damaged and five people were wounded, including a 15-year-old boy.
On the morning of January 1, Russian forces struck a multi-story residential building in the Central District of Kherson with a strike UAV, where the drone flew into an apartment and wounded an 87-year-old woman. She was hospitalized in moderate condition. In addition, on the first day of the new year, the occupiers killed a man in the Dniprovskyi District of the city.
Russian occupiers carried out an airstrike on Feldman Ecopark near Kharkiv, wounding a female volunteer and lions. The park’s founder, Oleksandr Feldman, reported that many birds were also killed as a result of the attack, including parrots and pheasants.
On January 1, the Russian Federation again struck Ukraine’s port infrastructure with drones. In the Izmail port, piers and equipment were damaged, while in the Odesa port, equipment, vehicles, and individual infrastructure facilities were damaged by UAV debris and blast waves. Fortunately, there were no fatalities or injuries during this night attack.
Throughout the day, Russian forces attacked Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast with UAVs, damaging a multi-story residential building. No casualties were reported.
As a result of Russian strikes on January 1, 2026, the infrastructure of Ukrzaliznytsia was damaged in Odesa Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Volyn Oblast. In Kovel, Volyn Oblast, approximately seven UAV impacts were recorded on the buildings of the locomotive depot, while in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, freight railcars were damaged due to the attack. In Odesa Oblast, the enemy attacked logistics facilities, while the threat of repeated strikes complicates restoration work carried out by repair teams. Despite the damage, the attack did not affect train traffic.
Throughout 2025, Ukrainian emergency responders conducted 491,756 deployments to the sites of Russian strikes, where they managed to rescue 7,757 people from under the rubble. According to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, personnel extinguished more than 92,000 fires in residential buildings, hospitals, and enterprises. In addition, SES units surveyed more than 25,000 hectares of territory and neutralized 86,310 explosive ordnance items.