Russia's war on Ukraine. 11.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked near Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 13 times towards Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, and Petropavlivka. Ten attacks were repelled by Ukrainian Defense Forces, with ongoing battles in the Lozova area. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 19 times in the areas of Druzhelyubivka, Tverdokhlibove, Nevske, Makiivka, Novosadove, and Torske. On the Siversk direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to breach defenses nine times in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske, Hryhorivka, and Spirne. On the Kramatorsk direction, 3 clashes occurred, with all enemy attacks near Ivanivske and Kalynivka being repelled, resulting in losses for the occupiers. On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 enemy attacks near Dachne, Toretsk, and Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attempted to penetrate defenses 27 times. In the areas of Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Svyrydynivka, Hrodivka, Ivanivka, Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, and Marynivka, the occupiers faced stiff resistance 25 times. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy attacked 22 times, showing the most activity in the areas of Heorhiivka, Ukrainsk, and Krasnohorivka. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Vuhledar. The occupiers also launched an unsuccessful assault on the Orikhiv direction near Mali Shcherbaky but met strong resistance.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, he aggressor made 7 failed attempts to storm the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
General conclusion:
Russian forces have recently significantly intensified airstrikes on front-line areas in southern Ukraine.
In the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the enemy replaced two regiments that had been operating as part of the forward forces and had lost combat capability.
It is highly likely that Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to completely abandon the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske and retreat to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line.
The situation in the Selidove area has deteriorated significantly, with the enemy very close to entering the city from the east and northeast. They also managed to advance west of Novohrodivka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 112 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG advanced southeast of Vetreno and is operating on the eastern outskirts of Russkoe Porechie. Battles took place near Korenevo, Apanasovka, Snagost, Kremyanoe, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Russkoe Porechie, Ulanok, and Borki.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made minor advances along a tree line southeast of Makiivka, west and south of Synkivka, and continued offensive actions near Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Tverdokhlibove, Novosadove, and Nevske.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops attacked near Torske and Dibrova.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the fields northwest of Bilohorivka and continued attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Ivano-Dariivka, and Zvanivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces captured Hryhorivka and most of Kalynivka, advanced near Zaliznyanske, west of Klishchiivka, and continued offensive actions on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, near Ivanivske and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances in the eastern part of Toretsk, near New York, and attacked in the area of Druzhba and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from Marynivka, and Russian advanced units are breaking through between Ukrainsk and Selydove.
Russian forces advanced west and southwest of Mykhailivka, captured Halytsynivka, moved 1.5 km west of Novohrodivka, and northeast of Selidove. They are simultaneously attempting to advance toward Pokrovsk itself and southeast of Pokrovsk along the Selidove–Ukrainsk–Hirnyk line.
Russian forces continued offensive actions near Novooleksandrivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Svyrydonivka, Ivanivka, Hrodivka, in the direction of Novotroitske, near Novohrodivka, Selydove, Ukrainsk, Hirnyk, Mykhailivka, Marynivka, Zhelanne Pershe, and Halytsynivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces captured Krasnohorivka and continued offensive actions near Heorhiivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces struck northwest of Pobieda.
Russian troops advanced in the central and northwestern parts of Vodyane, nearly capturing the village, focusing their efforts along T0524 highway northeast of Vuhledar between Paraskoviivka and Kostyantynivka, with daily attacks in this area. The enemy advanced further west of Vodyane and near Vuhledar, continuing the offensive near Kostyantynivka and Zolota Nyva.
On the Orikhiv direction, fighting continued near Mali Shcherbaky and Mala Tokmachka.
On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces advanced on the islands in the Dnipro River delta north of Kozachi Laheri, focusing their efforts toward Bilohrudy Island.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet operates near Komarovka in Kursk Oblast, having arrived from Kherson Oblast.
On the Zaporizhzhia direction, near Kamyanske, units of the North Ossetian UAV "Alania" Battalion and the "Valkyria" detachment of the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army are active.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
Without the involvement of additional forces and resources, the enemy's 41st Army Command will soon have to either concentrate on narrower directions and sectors or abandon simultaneous offensive actions across the entire operational zone and focus on high-cost battles in Toretsk itself or conclude combat operations in the area of New York and Nelipivka.
The enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk. Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.
The enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through "Tavriya" OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
Delaying the decision to withdraw the "Tavriya" OSG forces from the bridgehead on the Vovcha River in the Nevelske area on the Pokrovsk direction to the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line will lead to their encirclement.
"Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
In the area of Staromayorske, the aggressor is forming a tactical breakthrough group consisting of 7,000 to 10,000 troops, which may attempt to break through in the direction of Velyka Novosilka. Another tactical group, smaller in size, is being formed east of Kostyantynivka with the objective of enveloping Vuhledar from the north or advancing towards Kurakhove from the south. The main problem is the lack of personnel. The most likely scenario would be an attempt to encircle and capture the areas of Makarivka – Velyka Novosilka – Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka – Pavlivka – Vodyane.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 11.09.24
Personnel - almost 628,930 (+1,140);
Tanks 8,642 (+21);
Armored combat vehicles – 16,938 (+13);
Artillery systems – 17,936 (+56);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,182 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 943 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,388 (+58);
Aircraft - 368 (0); 1380
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 14,990 (+57);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,591 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
On the night of September 11, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile, two S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, six Kh-31P anti-radar missiles, and 25 Shahed-type attack drones. As a result of the air defense battle, 20 attack drones were shot down, while five enemy UAVs were lost on Ukrainian territory.
On the night of September 11, Russian invaders shelled a hospital in the town of Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast, using artillery. Windows were severely damaged, and there were partial power outages. Preliminary reports indicate that no patients or staff were injured.
On September 11, Russian troops twice shelled the city of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of three residents and five others being wounded.
On September 11, Russian forces attacked the Kamianske district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing a 38-year-old man and injuring two others.
On September 11, Russian forces shelled an evacuation group from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine during a civilian evacuation in the Volnovakha district of Donetsk Oblast. Two rescuers were injured in the attack.
At 12:50 p.m. on September 11, Russian forces struck the village of Kostyantynopil in the Volnovakha district of Donetsk Oblast, reportedly using a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system. Two people were killed, and two others were injured.
On Thursday, September 12, a farewell ceremony will be held in Kyiv for Matisyahu Samborsky, the adopted son of Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi Moshe Azman, who was killed on the frontlines. Matisyahu leaves behind a wife and a young daughter born in May 2024.
The National Police have recorded over 200 cases of arson targeting the vehicles of Ukrainian servicemen. National Police Chief Ivan Vyhivskyi stated: "This is clearly an FSB operation. They are recruiting our youth, and more than 50 of these incidents were committed by children, unaware of the consequences and responsibility."