Russia's war on Ukraine. 25.09.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted to storm Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Vovchansk 3 times, without success. At the same time, enemy aviation launched KAB airstrikes from the Shebekino direction (Russia) on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted offensive operations near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Andriivka, Pishchane, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks, with ongoing fighting near Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the Defense Forces' positions 22 times near Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, Makiivka, Zarichne, and Novosadove. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 assaults by enemy forces near Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Mankivka, Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, 10 battles took place as Russian forces, with air support, assaulted Ukrainian positions toward Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked 24 times in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Novohrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Marynivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 23 enemy assaults. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy made 19 attempts to break through Ukrainian defense lines near Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Druhe, Heorhiivka, Dalnie, Kostyantynivka, and Katerynivka.  On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 8 attacks against Ukrainian Defense Forces near Vuhledar, Pavlivka, Katerynivka, and Vodyane.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the invaders unsuccessfully tried 3 times to push Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions, suffering losses and retreating.

General conclusion:

• The assessment of the operational structure of the enemy's "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping indicates that the defensive operation in Kursk Oblast has been given higher priority than the creation of a buffer zone in Kharkiv Oblast.

• The development of the situation in Kursk Oblast requires the command of the enemy's "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping to solve a number of additional operational tasks, therefore the actions of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping in the Kupyansk area are auxiliary in this context.

• The operational tasks of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping remain the liberation of Kursk Oblast and the creation of a buffer zone from Hlyboke to Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast. In order to begin an operation to expel Ukrainian Defense Forces from the territory of the Russian Federation, the enemy needs to boost its force strength in Kursk Oblast to 65-70 thousand personnel (currently – about 40,000);

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy's 1st Tank Army is attempting to break through to the Oskil River, advancing towards Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi and Borova.

• The assessment of reserves within the "Sever (North)" and "Zapad (West)" Operational Groupings indicates that they do not possess sufficient forces or resources to sustain an offensive if they achieve a breakthrough in the "Khortytsia" OSG’s tactical defense lines.

• The enemy's offensive efforts near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk are complementary and aim to stretch Ukrainian Defense Forces across a wider front in Donetsk Oblast.

• The potential capture of Vuhledar by enemy forces is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of their offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, as it does not grant them strategically advantageous positions to advance further westward.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 137 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Vesioloe, continued offensive operations, captured part of the forest north of Martynovka, and maintained attacks near Olgovka, Liubimovka, Tolstyi Lug, Malaya Loknya, and Obukhovka.

• Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the directions of Novyi Put and Medvezhie, while still holding positions in Malaya Loknya.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in central Vovchansk and liberated the Vovchansk Aggregate Producing Plant, displacing units of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, significantly complicating the enemy's efforts to capture the city.

• Russian forces continued attacks near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Tykhe, and Vovchansk.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced 4 km from Pishchane towards Kruhlyakivka, established fire control over roads near Kruhlyakivka, leveled the flank south of Berestove, and conducted attacks in the areas of Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Stelmakhivka, and Andriivka.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Makiivka, Novosadove, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Torske, Terny, Dibrova, and Dronivka.

• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Fedorivka but failed to advance.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued localized attacks near Chasiv Yar without success. The enemy also attacked near Kalynivka, Minkivka, Klishchiivka, Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control of several previously lost positions in Toretsk, advancing south along Tsentralna Street in the eastern part of the city.

• Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk, south of the city towards Nelypivka and Leonidivka, completely displacing Ukrainian Defense Forces from Nelypivka and clearing the village. They also attacked near Dachne and Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continued to advance east and southeast of Pokrovsk, making gains in the fields west of Hrodivka towards Mykolaivka, on the eastern outskirts of Selydove, and northwest and west of Ukrainsk towards Tsukuryne. They attacked near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Mykolaivka, Marynivka, Zhuravka, Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Druhe, and Ukrainsk.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Heorhiivka and towards Dalnie. Assault units of the 29th Army captured the "Pivdennodonbaska #3" mine in the western part of Vodyane.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance on the northeastern flank of the Defense Forces’ Vuhledar bridgehead via Vodyane and on the southwestern flank via Prechystivka, aiming to encircle the Ukrainian grouping in Vuhledar and force a withdrawal.

• The enemy established fire control over C051134 road (Vuhledar – Bohoyavlenka), the last supply route for the defenders of Vuhledar. Forward units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps expanded their bridgehead on the northern bank of the Kashlahach River, advancing from the Prechystivka – Pavlivka line to the west of Vuhledar, reaching the Pavlivka – Bohoyavlenka road. At the same time, units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by the 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, fully secured the "Pivdennodonbaska #1" mine and approached the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar. Their assault groups advanced into the eastern part of the city towards Desantnykiv Street, consolidating their positions.

• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued near Novoandriivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlyov, the commander of the Moscow Military District, was appointed commander of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping.

• Units of the 45th Separate SOF Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces operate in Vovchansk.

• Elements of the 98th Airborne Division continue to operate on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, although the main forces of the division have been redeployed to Kursk Oblast.

• The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army was withdrawn from combat and concentrates near Ocheretyne.

• The 11th "Kuban" BARS detachment is active on the Orikhiv direction.

• The Russian military command has begun consolidating forces, including the remnants of the "Wagner” PMC, "Storm-Z," and units of the Russian Airborne Forces, in the occupied southern regions of Ukraine, likely in preparation for an offensive operation.

• The enemy's " Sever (North)" Operational Grouping consists of the 6th Combined Arms Army (69th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), the 11th Army Corps (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment), the 14th Army Corps (80th, 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, 71st, 99th Tactical Groups), the 44th Army Corps (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), the 6th Air and Air Defense Army (105th Mixed Air Division, 899th Assault Aviation Regiment, 15th Army Aviation Brigade, 332nd, 440th Separate Helicopter Regiments), military units from the 2nd and 32nd Air Defense Divisions, the 810th and 155th Separate Marines Brigades, units of the 7th, 76th Air Assault Divisions, the 106th Airborne Division, the 11th and 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigades. Individual units from the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, the 38th and 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 35th Combined Arms Army, and the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army have been deployed to its operational zone. The total strength of the "Seever (North)" Operational Grouping is estimated at 40,000 personnel, with an additional 8,000 personnel in Belgorod Oblast and up to 12,000 personnel in Bryansk Oblast.

• It is expected that the 71st Motorized Rifle Division, which is being formed in Murmansk Oblast as part of the 14th Army Corps, will be gradually introduced into the operation of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping in Kursk Oblast. After completing combat coordination, the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment, reinforced by the 88th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 71st Motorized Rifle Division, will arrive in the operational zone.

• Assessment of enemy reserves:

  • Reserves of the Operational Grouping "North": First-echelon reserve – motorized rifle battalion of the 153rd Tank Regiment, general reserve – 371st Motorized Rifle Regiment.

  • Reserve of the 1st Tank Army – two motorized rifle battalions, reserves of the 4th and 47th Tank Divisions – a combined rifle battalion each. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division has been fully deployed into the operation and has no reserves.

  • Enemy reserves on the Belgorod direction include: first-echelon reserve – up to two motorized rifle battalions of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division, reserve of the 6th Combined Arms Army – two tank battalions and a territorial defense motorized rifle regiment, reserve of the 11th Army Corps – a motorized rifle regiment.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The "Tavriya" OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

• The enemy's military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the "Vostok (East)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent "Tavriya" OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.

• The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 25.09.24  

Personnel - almost 646,400 (+1,250); 

Tanks 8,815 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,304 (+12); 

Artillery systems – 18,549 (+74);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,199 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 952 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,248 (+73);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,879 (+115);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,595 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of September 25, Russia launched 32 kamikaze drones at Ukraine, 28 of which were shot down by air defense systems. The air defense also intercepted 4 guided air missiles (Kh-59/69) out of 8 missiles of various types launched at Ukraine.

• During the night of September 25, Russian forces conducted an airstrike on a school in the Mylivska community of the Beryslav district in Kherson Oblast. The building suffered significant damage, but there were no casualties.

• On Wednesday morning, Russian occupiers attacked Kherson. Three residents of Antonivka, a village on the outskirts of the city, were injured in a drone attack. A 24-year-old woman was also injured in the central district of the city due to enemy shelling.

• In the afternoon of September 25, Russian forces shelled the village of Zymivnyk in Kherson Oblast, killing an 80-year-old woman. Her 48-year-old daughter was hospitalized.

• At 3:40 p.m. on September 25, the Russian army conducted airstrikes, likely using FAB-250 bombs with guidance kits (UMPK), on the central part of Kramatorsk. Two civilians lost their lives, and 19 others were injured, including three minors.

• Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 90 shelling attacks on the Sumy Oblast border area, resulting in one civilian death in one of the communities. A total of 191 explosions were recorded, including strikes from guided bombs (KAB).

• The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, established by the UN, has uncovered new evidence of Russia torturing Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war in occupied territories. The occupiers reportedly coordinate their actions across various detention sites and regularly use sexual violence as a form of torture.